Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Maybe a screaming "buy".
The only trouble is, it's very hard to actually buy any shares right now!

Any sightings of the Rainbow Warrior? Is she still in port?

Drop seems massively overdone to me. I'm not sure there is anything in that RNS to justify a 20% off sale price this morning.
If you are patient, the pandemic will pass, and Shoezone will return to being the well-run and profitable company that it once was.

Hi Perroverde!
Yes, that's a great video.
But is that dyke kimberlite or blow kimberlite? And how thick is it?

Hi Mr Tibbles!
I think spot on. Now the election has come and gone, the awful truth is beginning to emerge.
The true figure of unemployed in the US is likely around 20 million, and unless Congress acts soon, the benefits of many (and the freeze on many evictions) will end on December 31st. This could be a very ugly Christmas stateside.
Lots of homeless peoples' tents popping up here as well...

Hi Addicknt!
You may well be right. Given the usual low rate of PI participation, and a fair amount of II abstentionism, any coalition of CGP, BHP and Newcrest will probably win out on those motions.
I sold here at 32p on the rise. A little bit too early, I admit. But I had bought in at 20p or so, so no complaints from me.
For now I'm just watching here - waiting for significant developments or a decent drop in the price. I'd count Nick Mather going as a major positive for SOLG.

What a strange RNS, that is. The shareholders letter seems almost desperate.

What's going on behind the scenes? How many major shareholders are opposed to the board?

I just tried a fairly large dummy sell, and the market-makers quoted a price without hesitation. That said, the board is all buys, and the price isn't moving, so I guess the seller may still be around.
It's tempting to go crazy here, because the stock is so clearly undervalued. But I suppose it's best to keep some investment discipline...

240K sell just printed. That's what has been holding this back all day long.
Hopefully, that means that this is now free to rise into results.

Mr. Market is just like us humans, really. He prefers listening to a good story to doing his maths homework. He's more than a bit idle, he's prone to sudden irrational enthusiasms, and he prefers the dream of a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow to the dull but sure profit just under his nose.
As for investment funds, they seem to be staffed by some of the laziest humans of all...
IMO, there is still a lot more to come here. I'd expect a decent leap on results, especially if the dividend is restored. And another one when brokers / investors start to estimate earnings for the current financial year based on what we know so far.

Rhodium at new all-time high - $16,100/oz using JMAT prices.

Yes, the way things are going now, the current financial year should be an absolute doozy (to use a technical financial term).
By the way, rhodium price at new all-time high today - $16,100 using JMAT prices.

Just to say Tharisa (THS) RNS out this morning ahead of their annual results on 30th November.
Very strong EPS number.

EPS 16 to 17 cents per share, up over 300% on last year's performance. Not bad when you factor in Covid!
The EPS is also a beat of the estimates provided by the five analysts that Tharisa quote on their website - (they were 12 cents to 16cents per share).
Last year's disappointing results dropped the share price from around 108p to 79p, exactly where we are today. So back to 108p, at least???

I expect the campaigners are bluffing about filing a court case, in order to get more publicity.
The bar for obtaining a judicial review is very high. And it would cost a fair amount of money to bring the case in the first place, and a whole lot more if costs were awarded against them.
Remember, the campaigners are not suing BPC, as such. They are arguing that the Bahamas government broke the law in granting BPC permission to drill. The courts rarely go against a government in such cases.

Hi BB2!
If you go through their RNSs, you'll see that Sustainable have skipped a few 1% intervals before. I think they went from 13% to 10% in one leap, for instance.
There are ways to place sell orders with brokers to do such things legally, I believe.
As always with AIM, the rules are not exactly rules, as such, more loose guidelines...

Hi BB2!
I can't prove Sustainable are still selling (of course).
But I was following the book as we dropped down from 39p, and it did look like we had a strong seller all the way. Not a desperate, forced seller, but a motivated, systematic one. (Remember, Sustainable are taking a very decent profit from their position IF they are indeed selling).
I think the price may now have dropped so far that the seller has stopped selling for now. IMO, this is the point of exhaustion.

Hi General Morales!
I think this publication is negative about Karo because they knock most everything the Zimbabwean government has done or not done recently. For instance, here is an editorial from Nov. 20th:
www.theindependent.co.zw/2020/11/20/its-three-years-of-disaster/
In short, I'm not sure the article you quote indicates very much. It's telling that Winston Chitando, the Minster of Mines, didn't even bother to answer the newspaper's questions.
God only knows what Tharisa plan to do with Karo, though. It's way too big for them. They need a partner.

Here is a long article which explains well the thought process of the ferrochrome producers:
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/chrome-exporters-want-to-discuss-ways-of-solving-ferrochrome-dilemma-without-export-tax-2020-11-19
I still think the proposed chrome tax is a stupid and reckless idea. The solution to the ferrochrome producers' problem is to reform Eskom and to free up electricity generation, not to impose an export tax.
BUT, I don't think this damages the investment case for Tharisa. The platinum group metals side of Tharisa's business is currently wildly profitable, whilst the chrome side of the business should bring in a small profit, or at least break-even, despite the tax. (It should help that Tharisa produces a fair amount of specialty chrome products, where it should be easier to maintain a margin. Also, the worse business becomes for other pure chrome miners exploiting the UG2 reef, the tighter the rhodium market should become.)
All in all, I make Tharisa as strong a buy as SLP was, say, two or three years ago.

I wonder if Tharisa aren't looking at a partnership deal with an independent SA ferrochrome producer, or even at buying one of the old, unused ferrochrome plants in SA, modernising it, installing some power generation, and smelting their own ferrochrome.
They are in a good position to do this, and if they did they could turn the proposed chrome tax to their own advantage.