Member Info for TigerByTheTail

God knows, I'm not on Dan Betts' Christmas card list. But this is getting unfair.
This is 2020. Huge numbers of companies have been reduced to being zombies, or simply gone bust thanks to Covid.
Some gold miners have missed their guidance by big margins (i.e. 50%).
I guess that Hummingbird will produce about 105K ounces this year, so they will miss the lower end of their guidance by about 5%. That's not ideal, but it's far from a disaster. Especially as gold prices have been so high.
IMO, Hummingbird is in a far better position than it was 12 months ago. Debt has been paid down, drill results have been good, Karoussa has been acquired, and Dugbe has been farmed out to some excellent operators.
Looked at rightly, the current share price is an opportunity. A big one.

Every bridge must have its troll. And every bulletin board likewise, I guess...
I'm enjoying the idea of smuggling in some of the spare parts required for a ball mill, for instance.
You'd need a big suitcase. And very strong arms!

Oh God, Border Terrier is back under a new name on this board. The reference to HUMRF is the dead giveaway.
That's all we needed!

In humbling news, Eurasia's mcap has now hit £1.15bn.
So, for the price of one non-producing and only mildly prospective Russian palladium/ platinum explorer you could buy Tharisa, Sylvania, and JLP, plus throw in PAF for some gold exposure!
There are some things on AIM that simply leave me speechless. Am I crazy, or should Eurasia's mcap really be about a twentieth of its current level? It's worse than Tesla!

Hi Onassis!
You do know that piece is littered with factual errors, don't you?
Eurasia Mining barely produce any PGMs at all. They are a tiny minnow in the PGM pond. And there are plenty of low cost rhodium / palladium / platinum miners in South Africa, especially the dump recyclers like SLP and JLP. Also, co-product UG2 reef miners like Tharisa (THS) are wildly profitable at current PGM basket prices.
As for a sale of MT, don't you think it would have already happened by now if it was going to happen?
And you know what is the craziest thing of all? For the price of the EUA mcap you could buy outright THS, SLP, and JLP. And have enough money left over for a couple of decent single mine gold producers.

Yes, indeed. I guess there were a fair number of investors waiting to sell on any kind of liquidity.
But the fact remains that BOD have discovered a kimberlite blow / pipe about the same size as Marsfontein at Thorny River. Now to discover if it is diamondiferous - for now that's a fairly reasonable assumption, but not a proven fact.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9IaVXfUp_4&feature=youtu.be

Hi Echo!
I have to agree about the share price response. News like this should be a 100% rise in a day, or more, surely?
It's a kimberlite pipe the same size as Marsfontein and next door to Marsfontein, which (in my view) likely contains diamonds of the same type and at about the same grade as Marsfontein.
Anyway, I'm here for the long run, so I'm just going to look away for a bit, and hope for a nice surprise when I come back again.

Just thought I'd let you all know that BOD - Vast's JV partner in Zimbabwe - has a rather significant RNS out this morning concerning their exploration in South Africa. They've discovered a new kimberlite pipe of a similar size and near to the historic Marsfontein diamond mine.

Let's be clear.
The share price in the summer (c. 200p) was a completely false price, based on horrendous misinformation from the company. Sukhari has been seriously mismanaged for several years, and all directors in place over this period should resign / be removed.
Centamin is now - in the medium term - a play on the gold price . If it soars then all is well. If it drops, then things will get ugly.
The cash pile will likely be eaten up over the next three years by the expanded Capex and dividends.
I think the mcap may be too high for what Centamin - in the cold light of day - actually is.
This isn't for me.

I did manage to get a few on the bell this morning. Since then, zilch, zip, nada to buy.

Platinum price going well - it's around $1,000/ounce now.
Palladium and rhodium also going well.
I don't keep an accurate record of such things, but I assume SLP's PGM basket price must be at a record high right now.

The PGM basket price must be at a record high, as well, surely?
Platinum hit $1000/ounce overnight, and platinum and rhodium are still going well.

Hi RazorsEdge!
I agree that Martin Horgan seems to be the real deal.
But what does the current situation say about previous management? Sukhari seems to have been run into the ground over the last few years. And, incidentally, shareholders have been badly misled.
IMO, the damage is lasting and real, and if the planned Capex is not included in the AISC (as I suspect) then I'm not sure this is a good investment prospect.

The market seems to be reacting to this morning's RNS with no more than a shrug of its shoulders.
Congratulations to all who managed to buy at 27p to 28p first thing this morning. I couldn't get a price.

I agree that Mr. Market seems to be a bit slow on the uptake this morning. This is huge news.
Congratulations to James Campbell and the team - it really is some technical achievement to locate a blow hidden underneath rock cover.

A 0.4 hectare pipe is exactly the same size as Marfontein - and look how much money that made!

It's 2020, lads!
Given Covid and a coup (say) 101-105K ounces is a respectable performance. Certainly, it represents far less damage than most businesses have suffered during this year; including most other gold miners. Hummingbird will be about net debt free right now, and completely debt free in six months time. That's not too shabby.
I'm also grateful for the full explanation of why guidance has been missed. It makes sense to me. The company probably needs to adapt to increasingly wet rainy seasons; they are likely an effect of global heating changing weather patterns, pushing the Sahara northwards.
You'd think today's news would already be in the share price, given where the share price is. But who knows.

Hi Sotolo!
Your L.A. story sounds so familiar.
Why can't the Americans understand that when the English say "Yes, I know a bit about that" it can mean anything up to and including that the speaker is the world expert in his/her field?
And whenever you fail to be relentlessly mindlessly optimistic you're accused of being "dark" and "so European".
Anyway, I'm crossing my fingers for tomorrow...

600,000 shares sold after the bell to balance up the day's book. Decent volume today - 4.78 million shares traded.
Sustainable had around 25 million shares (6.9%) on 11 September when they filed their last TR-1.
Volume has been reasonable in the 12 or so weeks since then - certainly over 1 million shares per day on average.
Assuming that most of the sales have been from Sustainable (certainly, somebody big has been selling down relentlessly) are we now near the end of this process? I'm not sure, but I think it's quite likely.