Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Hazrat!
Many thanks for sharing - I was going to look at the numbers closely this weekend.
Your assumptions and calculations do fit with what Martin Eales was saying in the conference call - in particular, that operating breakeven would come well before 400t per month production was reached.
I'll come back with my own figures on Monday.

Hi Jeffa!
That thought occurred to me as well - now there is no definite time period for the BP licence, just more delay, what do all the T20 investors do? Do they hold on / rollover? Or do they get out?
There seem to be a lot of T20 holdings on this share, so this will move the share price.

Firstly, I'm reposting Jayfella's link about diamonds in Zimbabwe, because this upcoming change in government policy will matter a great deal to Vast, and I think people have skimmed over it in all the fuss over the BP licence:
http://www.zbc.co.zw/diamond-policy-imminent/
Secondly, I think a lot of posters are underestimating how difficult it is to deal with a truly corrupt and predatory bureaucracy such as Romania's (I know, I've worked there, it was hellish). The fact is this may not be a small delay in granting the BP licence, it may last months (again). Building up hopes for them only to be dashed (again) does nobody any favours!

Hi GoldenBull!
Of course a low share price is bad for the company. I can't imagine how this situation could be advantageous to Hummingbird in the long run - the most likely consequence of a low SP is a swift takeover and no long run at all.
FWIW, I know lots of people who work in major financial institutions (from my day job), and I can promise you that after this long slow decline in the SP they would be delighted with an opportunity to cash out at a reasonable premium and to achieve their bonus targets for the year. There'll be no loyalty to management when money is put on the table, believe me.
I do agree with you that it would be wonderful if Hummingbird could flog Dugbe and pay a special divi. Not sure how many buyers there will be for it in current environment, though. (And, honestly, why buy Dugbe for $60m when less than $200m gets you the entire company?)

Hi Lee!
Good to see you here, and not just in Vast!
I've met Martin Eales and I've only got good things to say about him. Obviously, the key task ahead is to ramp up production to 400t per month, but I think that should be a solvable problem. Some country risk remains, of course, but Rainbow have proven they can operate successfully there. So, yes, this looks like a good 'un!

Hi 1234567!
I agree that a buyback would help the share price, but I don't think it would need to be as much as $8-$10m. IMO, even $3m would put a bid under the share price and change things dramatically.
What I do think is absolutely crucial is that the BOD makes it clear that they understand that the company belongs to us, the shareholders. So proper communication, proper support for the share price (either via dividends or via buybacks or other means), proper investment and development of Yanfolila, and no distractions.
I do hope that those who are going to the presentation tonight don't let Burt get a false impression that all is hunky dory here. The share price is grinding along at an almost unbelievable low (given the free cash flow HUM are generating), and share trading volume has collapsed. At the very least, the BOD should care about this if they want to keep their jobs - HUM are a very appealing takeover target at this price. And I think the vast majority of shareholders (institutions and PIs alike) would welcome such an offer with open arms.

OK, I agree, Prince William riding to Acacia's rescue like a knight of yore is a bit of a stretch.
But IMO the Barrick Chairman's interview together with the transfer of jobs and functions to Tanzania does add up something significant. I don't know how long it will take to sort the current mess out, but it does seem to me that the worst is past for Acacia.

Hi Hazrat!
I have to say I agree about the buying opportunity here. SP is back at near IPO levels, yet the mine is in production and successfully exporting and selling the concentrate, and hopefully Rainbow can achieve operating breakeven sometime during the next four months. In addition, the maiden JORC report should make good reading and proved a firm minimum Life of Mine number. Finally, there is always a chance that China plays the "rare earth card" in the ongoing US-China trade war, and prices go soaring up.
I added a reasonable number of shares yesterday, and plan to add more over the next few weeks on any further share price weakness (not really expecting any news now until October).

Yes, AAZ shows how well the market can react to a maiden dividend. IMO, it also shows how well the market responds to a well-planned publicity campaign - there was an article in the Mail on Sunday, then two exploration RNSs to prepare the ground, and finally a surprise increase in the value of the previously trailed maiden dividend. The result? A share price up by over 30% in only a few days.
So, congratulations to AAZ. They are a good company with an impressive cash flow, and they deserve to be rated higher.
That said, IMO HUM are a superior proposition to AAZ. And the SP here is still ridiculously low compared to HUM's free cash flow. So perhaps the BOD should review its publicity strategy (like, actually have one) and announce a dividend as well!

I think really we are all waiting for the development plan for Kabwe, currently due by the end of this month.
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium are picking themselves up from the floor...

Canaccord Genuity reiterates BUY rating and target price of 50p.
Fair enough, really, when you consider the free cash flow that HUM are currently generating, even with gold at $1200.

ACA started off almost 3% down at 8 am this morning (I know, I bought a few shares). Now it's nearly 6% up.
Any leads on any rumours out there? Is this still the effect of Barrick's Chairman's remarks about potential Chinese partners at the weekend?

Just listened to the conference call - in general, very clear and impressive presentation. Happy with it.
A few random points:
1. RBW expect to become cash flow positive in Q4 this year as Murambe (2nd mining area) comes on stream, and they hit the 400t per month run rate
2. No further raises are intended unless some major rare earth discovery is made which needs further investigation.
3. Kiyenzi JORC resource due in Q4. I think it may surprise the market to the upside.
4. Q3 production report due in about a month.

"At current rare earth prices and with the current offtake agreement, do you estimate that Rainbow would be cash flow positive if it produced and sold 400 tonnes of concentrate per month?"

I'd lay good money that the interim results will be published tomorrow, ahead of the investor presentation.
Given that the interims will almost certainly make good reading (great cashflow, rapidly vanishing net debt), IMO today might be a good day to buy HUM shares.
Just saying'...
(BTW, congratulations to AAZ holders on your maiden dividend. I still believe HUM is overall a better play, but you can't argue with AAZ's results or with their publicity campaign. I'm impressed.)

Hi Hazrat!
That's how I read it as well. But I think a straight question to that effect on the conference call would be well worth asking.

RNS out - first drill results and new ball mill commissioned. Looks good.

Fine, I've got no problem with Barrick buying out the minority ACA shareholders, delisting, and selling a stake. In that case, the only open question is the premium Barrick offer over the current share price to persuade the minority ACA shareholders to sell up.
But Stockabc's post seemed to suggest that the Chinese could somehow obtain the mines by going round Acacia shareholders somehow, and I was asking how that worked. (Short of full nationalisation by the Tanzanian government, that is; which (IMO) they would have done already, if they were going to do it.)
And, yes, Barrick do need to tread carefully here. This isn't a regular situation, and there are legal risks for them. I'm sure they know that perfectly well themselves.

But how do you think the mines and the shares can be separated?
I'm sure that Barrick's lawyers are advising them to be very wary of an Acacia minority shareholder lawsuit.

Hi Phil!
I'm here for Sonora. If you believe that Sonora will somehow be built, which I do, then Bacanora shares are very cheap right now. (My own opinion is that a major (Albemarle, SQM, Rio Tinto?) will either buy out the project, or buy out Bacanora entirely.)
FWIW, I don't believe Zinnwald (BCN) will happen, any more than Cinovec (EMH). I'm not at all confident of the basic economics of either, especially when you take out the rather unrealistic by-product credits for the tin and tungsten. (E.g.: see EMH PFS - the cut-off grades are not realistic for either metal, and create a false sense of value.)
As for Tesla, which some other posters have mentioned, oh God, anybody but them for an offtake, please! I believe a) Elon Musk is way out of control, and b) Tesla is near to some kind of bankruptcy event. IMO, Tesla's bonds have some kind of value (eventually, they will convert to equity in a restructured company). However, I believe Tesla's shares are basically worthless.
All IMO and DYOR!