Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Barna - thanks for the name check!
FWIW, as a very small example off how BH does indeed hurt HUM's share price, I would have normally bought a few more shares on the dip today. But I held off because of BH, and put the money in fellow goldie Centamin (also very cheap right now) instead.
That's how it goes - trust is hard to earn and easy to lose!

Thanks for posting this. Very interesting.

https://youtu.be/VUCemqpWpKY

Centamin market cap now approaching GBP 1bn level - I think a drop in the share price of another penny should breach it.
Centamin has no debt and 300m in cash. So 700m quid for the Al Sukhary mine?
Unless gold really has had its day after 5,000 years of being valued, this seems too cheap to me!

Just passing by...
Mcap here now 9.5m quid.
Aren't MKA due to receive a decent amount of cash later this year? And won't they still hold 25% of Songwe at the end of this process?
Am I missing something, or is this trading way too cheap?
Grateful for any replies from better informed investors!

I figure that HUM's share price simply can't drop much lower than this.
The company's balance sheet is strong and growing stronger - net debt was down to $15m a couple of months ago, and will be lower now. I reckon HUM should be debt free by the end of the year.
Free cash flow generation is excellent. Even with gold at $1100/oz, HUM is still making more than $300/oz (unlike most gold producers).
Finally, with the shares trading at something like 2 x this year's free cash flow generation, how much lower can the share price go?
(It's dangerous, of course, to think like this. Gold could fall further, production could be interrupted, something else bad could happen. But this is the best I can think right now!)

("Borrowed" with thanks from Bolgas on the Mkango thread...)

Crystal Market Research has announced the addition of "Rare Earth Metals Market Analysis and Forecasts 2018-2023" Market Research report to their database.

The Rare Earth Metals Market was worth USD 7.56 billion in 2014 and is expected to reach approximately USD 16.21 billion by 2023, while registering itself at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.84% during the forecast period.

https://www.openpr.com/news/1223058/Rare-Earth-Metals-Market-Quadruples-by-2023-with-a-8-84-of-Whooping-CAGR-Lynas-Shanxi-Guanlu-Co-Ltd-Rare-Earth-Metals-Inc-Avalon-Rare-Metals-Neo-Performance-Materials-Iluka-Resources-Great-Western-Minerals-Group-Ltd-Arafura-Resources-and-Alk.html

IMO, this week's drop is sectoral. All gold stocks are down, and some by a lot (e.g. CEY). Hummingbird's SP has actually held up pretty well in comparison to its peers - possibly because it its not included in any ETFs.
The probable extended life of Yanfolila mine and the likely expansion of production from year 3 (Gonka etc.) will of course add value to HUM eventually. Just as news of the net debt decreasing will, as well.
But right now there are almost no buyers in the gold space. Hopefully, this is just the darkest hour before the dawn.

You have to wonder how management could be so greedy and tin-eared as to issue new options now - after a failed equity raise and whilst the share price is in free fall. They're giving their investors the middle finger.

On 28th August Centamin closed at 108p. Since then it has dropped over 15%.
What has changed over the last 11 days?
In company news we've had a site visit prospectus which repeated the revised current guidance of 505,000 to 515,000 ounces this year. So nothing bad there.
The company balance sheet is very strong - no debt and $300m in the bank (23p per share). That's all good.
As for gold, it has traded rangebound. Currently it's in the middle of that range at $1,200. So no change there, either.
In short, I'm puzzled.
Does anybody see any reason why I shouldn't be buying at this price?!?

Hi Sumoskier!
Yes, they could use that $50m - as long as RiverFort (the lender) signs off on the plans.
But the money could be raised at project level as debt, or it could be new equity as well. We just don't know yet.
We don't know the total bill for the Kabwe plant, either. (My own guess is about $20m, but I could be very wrong).
In short, Kabwe looks good, but there are still lots of questions to be answered.

Lots of misinformation here. God only knows what a new investor would make of Jubilee if they believed some of today's posts!
I'd recommend reading the company website, the RNSs, and listening to the last podcast by Leon Coetzer, who I regard as one of the most impressive CEOs around.
Here are a few random notes re: Kabwe after reading the posts here:
JORC-attested grades of zinc in Kabwe spoil higher than most zinc grades mined today. Kabwe mine closed down to the sulphide lead-zinc core being mined out (and also low base metal prices at the time). Nobody is seriously thinking of ever reopening the underground mine; only of reprocessing the mountain of existing tailings to extract the lead, zinc, and vanadium contained in them.
I've got no idea if the willemite ore at Star Zinc, controlled by Galileo (not Jubilee) is compatible with the extraction process planned for Kabwe. As a Jubilee shareholder, I don't much care, even if this consideration is crucial for Galileo shareholders.
I'm not sure of economics of Kabwe yet, nor of where the money will come from to build the plant. We're waiting for Jubilee to announce their plans (trailed for this month). I assume that if Jubilee think that Kabwe won't be profitable, they'll just drop the project (though I also think this to be a very unlikely outcome).

Hi Tom!
Two legal concerns over Bunker Hill:
1. Permission to reopen this notorious once highly polluting mine was granted by Scott Pruitt (Trump's hard right anti-Global Warming appointee as EPA administrator, since forced to resign amid numerous corruption scandals). He granted Bunker Hill a 95% "discount" on the government's SuperFund clean up bill, probably exceeding his powers. (Basically, during his tenure, Scott Pruitt just ripped up or ignored every environmental protection rule he could. That's not allowed. Bureaucrats must act within existing law.)
Many of Scott Pruitt's rulings as EPA administrator are headed for the courts - the first (re: chemical plant safety) has already been overturned by a judge a couple of weeks ago.
The permission to reopen Bunker Hill will almost certainly also be challenged in court in due course.
Scott Pruitt's ruling in the Bunker Hill case is indeed odd - many previous applications to reopen the mine were made and rejected by the EPA over the 30 years it was closed. Scott Pruitt's own personal corruption is well recorded in the press; even for the Trump administration it was extraordinary. So it is easy to cast doubt on his motives. Thus, even without considering the possibility of a Democratic victory in 2020 and a hostile new EPA administrator, the whole Bunker Hill project stands on very shaky legal ground.
2. Separately, and further down the line, the mine will probably also be plagued by class action lawsuits alleging lead poisoning. Remembering that the entire area around Kellogg is already heavily polluted with lead from previous mine operations, there will be lead poisoning victims for the lawyers to parade in court. The question in court will be, was the lead from the old mining, or from the restart? A tricky one to prove, that. And US juries in such cases are notoriously sympathetic to the victims and very quick to levy massive damages against foreign companies, even when the scientific ground for their finding is doubtful (see recent Bayer-Monsanto "Round Up" case in San Fransisco).
In short, looked at from a US legal perspective, I don't think reopening Bunker Hill is a serious endeavour - no matter what the IRR/NPV is. IMO, it's telling how US companies have avoided the project, and the only people interested in funding it are the Chinese and Hummingbird - i.e. outsiders.

Tom!
Sorry, no offence meant. I assume common sense will prevail over BH, but I'd be glad to hear it stated officially.

Tom!
That's not the point.
The point is the permission to reopen the mine, who granted it, why, was their decision in accordance with existing law, and will it be questioned and overturned in court.
(Compare to the recent court case overturning scandalous and corrupt former Trump-appointed EPA administrator Scott Pruitt's tearing up of regulations relating to chemical plants.)

An official Question and Answer session has just been published by Vast on their website / this board. Two questions relate to the Marange diamond fields and BOD:

22) What, if any function, are Botswana Diamonds performing with us on the 'Heritage Concession'
For the Due Diligence phase Botswana Diamonds will be a consultant to Vast with the option of equity participation.

23) Can you provide guidance on how much of the due diligence is of a geological nature compared to how much is legal compliance?
All the Due Diligence is geological; the legal requirements have been completed for this phase.

For now, just sayin'... But if the due diligence does check out and the new Marange concession is diamond bearing, this could be massive news for BOD (as well as VAST).

No, Visitor, speaking as a still fairly substantial shareholder, I'd be happier with a takeover or major changes in the BOD.
The threat of Bunker Hill still hangs over this company like the sword of Damocles. I can only hope that Dan Betts has enough sense to step away from the brink. (On balance, I think he has, just). My research on this subject is extensive and pretty conclusive; Bunker Hill is a legal quagmire.
(FWIW, I don't care about the $2m already spent on BH; I do care that large amounts of new, good money are not thrown after bad).

BTW, if you think Tuesday's RNS was any good, you don't know ANYTHING about gold exploration. Beneath the ramping, it was actually pretty mundane; nothing very significant at all.

NewToThisGame2 - my point is that GGP isn't an investment. It's a casino game.
There is almost no underlying value to GGP. If you want to play this game, it's all about timing your entries and exits.
Eventually, GGP will go to zero, but that doesn't mean some of you won't make money beforehand, though most of you will lose.
If you actually want a decent, undervalued gold explorer that is run by a credible team with experience of making discoveries and turning them into gold mines, and that has a lot of ounces in the group and good prospects, then take a look at CORA. By the way, its market cap is only a quarter of GGPs!

By the way, if anybody still doubts what an achievement it was by HUM to finance and build a mine on time and on budget, and then to commission it without problems and to achieve targeted production, they might like to take a look at the SXX board today.
(Sorry for all shareholders there!)