Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Shareminator!
Martin Eales said that they would be OK without any more placings (except for new exploration) in the last conference call; the recording must be posted on the company website by now. But, yes, one should never believe a CEO 100% in such circumstances; even when the company is main market and not AIM!
But, do remember, when management own 40% of the company, they won't be placing for the hell of it. It's either taking money out of their own pockets or their own shares they are diluting!
In general, I agree that the next six months will be a narrow squeeze for Rainbow, financially, and there must be a chance of another placing if things don't go to plan. Is it better to buy now or to buy in January? To be honest, I'm not quite sure of the answer to that question.
I am, however, far more confident of the long term prospects of the company. Rare earth demand (at least for Nd and Pr) and pricing is only going to improve over time. And, in particular, I feel we're not paying enough attention to the resource upside here. Gakara boasts the world's highest grades of rare earth mineralisation - the narrow veins are nearly pure bastnasite and monazite, a unique occurrence. Geologically, the only way to explain these veins (and the breccia at Kiyenzi) is that they shot off the top of a network of yet to be discovered carbonatite pipes. IMO, there is a lot more to be found here.

By the way, the due diligence on the Heritage concession of the Marange diamond fields should be completed by 23rd October.
Andrew Prelea, CEO of Vast, has stated that the due diligence is geological, rather than legal - i.e. the question to be settled is whether the concession contains any diamonds. Since it's reported that artisan miners have already removed several large gemstones from the area, the answer may well be yes!

Hi Shareminator!
I think there are several questionable assumptions in your post, if you don't mind me saying so!
1) According to Martin Eales (CEO) the company won't need any more placings, except possibly for new exploration opportunities (in which case, fair enough).
2) Management own about 40% of the company, so there won't be a cheap buyout without their agreement, which is unlikely. Legal&General and Miton also own substantial shareholdings, bought at a much higher price than the current SP, and I don't think they will be willing sellers, either.
3) Despite the share price falling back to the level of the original placement, Rainbow have made huge progress since then. They've built a mine, produced, exported and sold their concentrate, and found new resources. Yes, the mood here is gloomy right now, because the market has doubts about whether they can produce their target of 400t per month, but we shouldn't ignore all that Rainbow have already achieved.
4) 20m quid mcap for a rare earth mine with a huge exploration upside? It's peanuts. I'm expecting Kiyenzi alone (when the JORC comes in) to increase the life of mine by 3-10 years. And there are a lot more rare earth veins and breccias out there to be discovered, as well as an entire feeder system of carbonatite pipes.
For my money, this is just the time to buy in to Rainbow. A lot of the risk has come off the table, and the market is being irrationally pessimistic about the company's prospects.

Hi Shareminator!
Thanks for posting the article. FWIW, I don't agree with your conclusions, though.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here, Visitor.
Bunker Hill is the Canadian TSX listed vehicle of some Idaho mining managers. They have no money; the convertible loan HUM gave them was to save them from bankruptcy.
I think the point Blackfisk raised is a very pertinent one: if Bunker Hill truly is "a world-class project", as advertised by HUM, then why has it not been snapped up by US or Canadian money already? It's not like they are short of capital over the water, is it? Perhaps, being more familiar with how business works there, the locals can see that the project has a fatal flaw?
And yes, Blackfisk is also right that, although failure is a hard test, success is an even harder one. Success makes most people who enjoy it arrogant and complacent. And that leads to a fall. And that's how I read Dan Betts' recent behaviour.

So where is the RNS for the Skeena deal? HOC going nicely now, but that should really boost the share price!

I come from that social world. Dr. Ford's accusations clearly highly credible, and deserve to be investigated fully. As do the accusations from the woman at Yale.
It is a very serious thing when a perjurer and likely rapist is elevated to be a justice of the U.S. supreme court. Can you not see that?
Nothing wrong at all in relations between men and women in general - at least in my world!

Ditto! - Happy to buy shares if they are being used to put Marange into production!

Hi Heardy!
Can you leave such disgraceful comments off this bulletin board? Really, you should be ashamed of yourself.

JT = John Thornton - current CEO of Barrick (soon to become Chairman of the merged Barrick-RRS group).
Barrick are 62% owners of Acacia and they have been talking to the government of Tanzania on Acacia's behalf.

First, I need to correct my own calculation - I'm a bit dyslexic at the best of times, and also in need of sleep (18 month old baby)...
So, 90m shares to be issued x 0.6p (let's assume) = 540,000 pounds, of course = about 700,000 USD.
Frankly, the need for this money in Romania must be urgent, so I'd expect a placing on Monday - unless the BP licence (and thus tranche 2 of the Mercuria funding) really does arrive today.
In general, if the BP licence situation drags on for many more months, then Vast will have a real problem funding their Romanian operations. The new diggers and excavators won't arrive at Manaila until the spring, and until then Romanian operations (Manaila, BP dewatering, general PLC costs) will burn cash (rate of 300,000 pounds per month?). It's all a bit of a problem!
(N.B.: The Zimbabwe cash situation is much healthier, but the costs of the reopening of Eureka will eat up all the free cash flow that PP generates, and in any case there are capital controls in place limiting the movement of money out of the country. So no help from there).

From Vast annual report (out today):

"In the case of the joint venture on the Heritage Concession, should the due diligence result favourably as management expects, then it may be decided that it is in the interest of shareholders that initial capital expenditure will be Financed by the Group rather than through third parties. Should the Heritage Concession develop positively, cash surpluses should arise, some of which the Group is confident should be capable of repatriation so as to be paid to the Group as dividends."

(The Heritage concession is an unmined part of the Marange diamond fields in Zimbabwe - BOD and Vast have a joint venture in Zimbabwe.)

Hi Jeffa!
Thanks for the headroom figure.
So 90m x (let's say) 0.6p = 480,000 pounds available to be raised now via equity.
Unless the BP licence drops literally today or Monday (and thus the T2 Mercuria funds become available), then I expect this headroom will have to be used. It's clear from the annual report that the Romanian / head office part of the business is running dry of cash, and this situation can't be sustained for any length of time.
There is a lot to like about Vast - the assets, the potential, and the management. And I'm not afraid of raising money via equity for good causes (such as Marange). But you simply can't operate a business without cash.

Does anybody know offhand how much headroom to issue equity Vast have left?
It seems to me that AP has held out as long as he could in the hope of the BP licence arriving and Tranche 2 of the Mercuria money becoming available, but now we have come to the moment of truth. The fact is, this company needs cash to fund its Romania operations / head office casts, and fast.

Hi Sands!
Not really helpful.
It's obvious that Hummingbird is in deep crisis and that ALL investors here are unhappy with management performance. Dan Betts has a lot of talking to do; that is, if he really wants to save his job.
Personally, I'm waiting for a full explanation of the interims, a clearly expressed company strategy looking forward, a plan to support the share price asap (probably buybacks), and an assurance that Bunker Hill has been dropped.
If Dan Betts continues to hide from his responsibilities, then this ends badly for him - with either a takeover or a shareholder rebellion. Look at the share price and compare it to the money spent on Yanfolila - it's clear the market has lost all faith in his management. If he can't win that faith back, and very quickly, for all our sakes he needs to go.

Thanks for posting this news of the Skeena deal. Two thoughts:
1. I like the look of it a lot (surely, it can't be the reason we're 8% down today!)
2. This really should have been RNSed by HOC. Maybe it will be announced to the markets after the deal is officially closed (i.e. tomorrow or the day after?)

BTW, if you needed proof that BCN is actively being shorted, you just got it.

I knew Tom Winnifrith very slightly at university - a hard right unpleasant d'head, and not too intelligent as well. He's often horribly wrong about investments, so (on one level) I'd ignore what he writes. However, (on another level) it's more bad publicity, and right now that won't help.

Look at the board further down - there was another "sell" of 500,000 at the same time. It was a rollover.
That's why the SP hasn't moved.

Hi Hazrat!
I must confess I haven't yet done my maths homework - day job intervened somewhat.
I'll try to do it next weekend.
Apologies.