Member Info for TigerByTheTail

So, the score for biggish LSE gold miners is:
1. Randgold (FTSE 100) - being taken over and delisted for no shareholder premium
2. Centamin (FTSE 250) - just issued second production downgrade and profit warning for year, share price crashing
3. Acacia (was FTSE 250) - still under persecution from Tanzanian government, final fate unclear
+ assorted Russian miners such as POG and Highland, all of which I wouldn't touch with a bargepole, perhaps because I've worked in Russia and speak Russian and I know what business is like there!
Is it too much to ask that some of the money invested in those companies comes here instead?!?

Given this news, which will inevitably lead to lower profits for the year, what do the honourable members of the board now consider to be "par value" for Centamin at $1,200 gold?
My own par figure is 110p, but I believe that in the short term the share will drop back to the mid 90s.
BTW , congratulations to Sotolo - your instincts were right!

That's two production downgrades - that is, profit warnings - in a few months.
IMO, the market is going to really punish Centamin for this latest miss. It makes you wonder if there shouldn't be board resignations. It also makes you wonder about a takeover; Sukhari is still one of the best gold mines in the world.
Luckily, I sold out on Wednesday (why am I so lucky with Centamin, but not with any other shares I invest in?). But for all holders this is going to be a rough few days.

Calculations...
So, if Red Mercury (the holders of the Heritage Concession) get 25% of the profits from Marange (as envisaged by the terms of their deal with Vast, and allowing for the expected "imminent" changes in Zimbabwean diamond mining laws),
therefore, VAST will end up with 65% of the profits,
and BOD will get 10%.
Which is, potentially, a big heap of money. Certainly, when compared to BOD's current mcap!

I read the RNS as reporting real progress on the Heritage Concession of the Marange diamond fields; both BOD (who are world-class experts in this field) and VAST clearly believe that they will discover diamonds there, if they have not yet already done so.
So we are waiting for the formal announcement of the new diamond policy from the Zimbabwean Government ("imminent"), the formal closure of a production sharing agreement with Red Mercury, and the probable announcement of the discovery of diamonds. If the 15km2 Heritage Concession does turn out to be an extension of the Marange diamond fields, with similar grades, as hinted at by BOD today, then this transforms Vast - BP or no BP.

Hi Visitor!
FWIW, I don't rate Avesoro either, and I certainly wouldn't buy AVO shares.
IMO, management unscrupulous, balance sheet weak, and terrible environmental practices in Liberia.
But Avesoro do have a declared policy of expanding from three gold mines (one in Liberia, two in Burkino Faso) to five in the near future. And they seem to be able to borrow money easily, even though I wouldn't lend them a fiver.
So I'd leave them on the "possibles" list.

Hi Tmb1 - this happens with LSE sometimes. Nought to do with BOD, just this website.

I thought exactly the same thing, Pepco!
There won't be any sky shareholder reluctance to give the board a little headroom to raise equity after the announcement of diamonds discovered in the Heritage Concession of the Marange!

There's a fair number of mid-sized West African goldies who might be interested in buying Hummingbird - especially at the current low SP (even with a takeover premium on top). B2Gold are one, though I think they've pressed the pause button on acquisitions recently. IAMGOLD are another. Even Avesoro (they are looking to expand, and they do have a functional mine in Liberia) could make an offer.
But my money is on Endeavour. There are so many links and points of contact between the two companies.

I'm in Vast as well, of course.
But the market cap of BOD is less than 5m quid. So IF / WHEN VAST and BOD announce that the Heritage Concession in Zimbabwe is diamondiferous, then the share price movement here should be even more violent than that in VAST.
(BOD also have other excellent prospects, particularly Thorny River, which IMO more than justify the current mcap, even without Marange.)

That RNS from BOD (Botswana Diamonds) isn't the big news about Marange that we are all hoping for.
But I do read it as a sign of high confidence that the Heritage Concession contains diamonds.

Indeed it may. This little company may be about to become worth a lot of money!

Dodge - very sorry to hear your news

Everybody else - BOD (Botswana Diamonds) have just issued an RNS with details of the joint venture they are establishing with Vast for Marange. It's a very interesting read, with lots of interesting hints about the potential of the area.
I don't know about the BP licence, but Marange is looking good!

Hi Mudeye!
WAF = ?
Any clues?

Hi Ricky! I'm afraid I can - easily!
It's amazing how similar the junior mining business is to my day job in the movie biz. A lot of film producers are just liars and scammers with a dodgy film script, a lot of mine promoters are liars and scammers with a questionable hole in the ground.
Of course, "The Bunker Hill Story" isn't over yet - they are officially in breach of contract and have 15 days to remedy that breach. I.e. they still have 15 days to scrounge up the money from somewhere. I'm hoping that Dan Betts is sensible enough not to throw good money after bad!
An RNS clarifying the Bunker Hill situation would be very welcome.

Thinking about it some more, it's actually really good news for Hummingbird that the Bunker Hill project is down. Very happy about it.
Let's hope management now concentrate on developing Yanfolila and strengthening the balance sheet.
If they could flog off Dugbe that would also be good.
Finally, let's hope Endeavour make a generous takeover offer for Hummingbird very soon!
(BTW, if anybody from Endeavour is reading this, I like Endeavour as a company, and would happily accept an all-share offer!)

Hi KaMei!
Thanks for the additional info. As many people here know, I was against Bunker Hill from the beginning. I didn't see this coming, though.
The good news is that it is "only" $2m. Frank is right on this point - HUM can stand the loss easily.
But... but...

Here's a link to the latest corporate presentation of Endeavour (TSX:EDV) - a really excellent mid-sized West African gold miner, and for my money, still the most likely buyer of Hummingbird. (There are a lot of points of contact between the two companies and we know that the CEOs have met). Of particular interest here is the section on West Africa in general, starting at page 78.

https://s21.q4cdn.com/954147562/files/doc_presentations/2018/09/180910-Endeavour-Corporate-Presentation-vf.pdf

Hi Tom!
Thanks for posting the link to the short article.
Do you understand the headline of it? Why is Bunker Hill called "the latest Bobby Genovese scam" in print? Any background info would be much appreciated.

Gold easily through $1200, up 1.5%. Silver even better, up 3%.