Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Addicknt!
I agree that raising money through the equity markets in the normal way is now effectively ruled out, and also that it won't be possible to load up the project with any more debt.
So, for me, that leaves only one option left - takeover by a major (e.g. Rio Tinto, Albemarle, SQM). This can come in several forms: outright hostile takeover, outright agreed takeover, or simply them taking a huge position in the company (75%+) via an issuance of equity. There are lots of lithium projects out there, so it's very much a buyers' market for the big boys, and they'll be able to force very good terms out of Bacanora (i.e. very bad terms for existing BCN shareholders).
The alternative is worse - years in limbo, going nowhere.
It's a real pity, but Secker has utterly screwed this company up.
For everybody's sake here, I hope my analysis is completely wrong!!! But that's how I see it.

Hi OlderandWiser,
This is IMO and DYOR, but:
I'm all but 100% confident that life of mine (Yanfolila) will be extended to 10 years+, and also that production in years 3-7 will be higher than envisaged in the current mine plan. Actually, I believe that final mine life might be as much as 15-20 years, especially if the gold price increases over time, making some of the lower grade zones economic to mine. There's still a lot of exploration potential around Yanfolila.
I'm not so confident about AISC, but in principle Yanfolila is a high-grade, low cost, open pit operation in a cheap country. Management should be able to keep costs down to lowest quartile for the industry. (AISC for this quarter will spike due to the rainy season - same static costs divided by less ounces produced. But it should drop back later.)
There is risk, of course, in this investment. My chief concerns are: persistent very low gold price, Mali civil war (not the current trouble in the North, but serious violence countrywide), management making unwise investments in new projects (i'd include putting a lot of money in Dugbe in that). But my overall assessment is that this company is very seriously undervalued.

HUM's share price drifting down on a gentle, unanswered wave of small PI sells. This, I think, will turn out to be the final capitulation and bottom.
IMO, the big gold miners have already turned - CEY is up from 84p at its nadir to 105p today. Smaller miners normally follow their bigger peers a few weeks later.
I'll hold off a while, hoping for an even lower entry price. But I'm definitely a buyer at these levels.

Hi Sumoskier!
Well, my glass is half full, not half empty!
I'm not sure what the news about Kabwe will be, but we've got every reason to expect positive production news from Hernic in a few weeks' time.

Hi 1234567!
Put like that, the argument for HUM to buyback its own shares (at least at the current SP, or near it) is pretty incontrovertible. Where else are management going to get such an attractive "return" on their money, and at such a low level of risk?
n.b. I'm also puzzled by the trade payables / capex figures. I'd knock a couple of million off for upfront money due on the current drilling campaign (which will have billed before June 30th), but the bulk of the anomaly remains. Perhaps an e-mail to Hummingbird asking for more detail might help?

Yes, BOD have found diamonds - well, nearly. Just not in partnership with Vast!

Free State diamonds!

For me, the big "out of the blue" upside here would be a deal with a major miner in Zambia which involved reprocessing their copper tailings for copper and cobalt, as Leon Coetzer talked about in an interview a couple of months back. That really would set JLP on a path to becoming a mid cap company!
Anyway, for now, news on Kabwe will do. I do agree the fine chrome process could become valuable USP as well.

Well, either personal greed and ambition has got the better of Mark Bristow, and he has stiffed his shareholders, or there are bigger problems at Randgold than have been made public (related to their mine in Congo?).
Anybody, I had absolutely no interest in becoming a shareholder of Barrick, both for financial and ethical reasons, so I was happy to dump my Randgold shares at a profit!

Hi Cowichan!
Luckily, I was a Randgold short termer - I bought a few shares on Friday not knowing anything about the merger, and sold out this morning for a 5% profit. Not too shabby!
That said, though, you're right. The Barrick deal stinks for "proper" Randgold shareholders. Mark Bristow has sold them up the river.

IMO, today's poor share price reaction (on minimal volume for an RNS day) is due to two main reasons:
a. The warning about lower Q3 production due to a severe rainy season. Even though this won't have any lasting effects (annual guidance is maintained), people see the arrival of the next "good news" slipping off into the distance. I can understand this short term thinking, even though the medium term news outlook (say up to January / February 2019) is very good (annual results, extended LOM and expanded production, etc.)
b. The lack of a clear plan for the future development of the company. This is a missed chance, as management really need to spell out what they intend to do with the free cash flow that Yanfolila is generating, and to make it clear that they respect the interests of their shareholders.
Anyway, HUM continues to be "on sale": in a piecemeal way at 26p per share to retail investors, and in a wholesale way at about 40p to 50p per share to outright buyers via a full takeover. Maybe Dan Betts is about to pull a top secret rabbit out a hat and amaze us all - it's noticeable how he's avoiding appearing in public again, and instead letting Bert (not a board member) handle publicity duties. But, if no rabbits appear soon, I rather think the Hummingbird story ends with a takeover in the next few months.

Well, now we know the Barrick & Randgold mega-merger is on.
It's a pretty lousy deal for Randgold shareholders, with no premium at all. Really, they've been sold down the river by their CEO, Mark Bristow, who gets to be CEO of the new merged company.
I wonder if a counter-offer won't come in from another major. Randgold's shareholders can't be very happy at the moment. Hopefully, some of those selling out of Randgold will park their money here instead.
In a more general way, I do hope this makes people take a fresh look at gold miners, and to realise how undervalued they are.

Agree. Strong figures in interims, as expected. Lots of free cash being generated. Yanfolila really doing the business. Share price simply can't stay at these levels if this performance continues.
Unfortunate to release on same day as Barrick and Randgold mega-merger, though. They will suck all the oxygen of publicity out of the air.

IMO, a completely cynical betrayal of RRS shareholders by board of directors.

There is a rumour flying about that Barrick and Randgold are about to merge. Dunno if it’s true.

https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2018/09/breaking-barrick-gold-abx-abx-and.html?m=1

Hi Darola!
IMO, there's another possible contributing factor to HUM's mystifying low share price that is worth mentioning.
Back in February HUM's (then) broker Beaufort Securities went spectacularly bust. Other than their corporate clients (like HUM) Beaufort also had 15,000 or so private investor accounts. Beaufort were well-known for hard selling their corporate clients to their investor clients (they had teams of telephone salesmen working on big commissions). Beaufort were making a market in HUM as well, and presumably held a decent number of shares "on the book".
So how many HUM shares did Beaufort and its investment clients hold back in February? 5%? 10%? I don't know for sure. But I'd guess a lot.
Since February all these shares have been sold off by the liquidator (PWC). Could this forced liquidation of the Beaufort holdings also be a significant factor in HUM's SP decline?
It's noticeable that Beaufort's other clients (mostly AIM resource companies) have also performed badly since their collapse.
If this theory is right, or partially right, then the good news is that the liquidator has finished now.
Hopefully, this is the bottom of a long trough, and from here we go up!

Hi Supercharger! Remember that Friday was "quadruple witching day", so the high volume doesn't mean all that much. A lot of shares recorded high volumes yesterday.

Hopefully, there will be news of JLP's plans for Kabwe next week. Given the huge size of Kabwe and the potential profits, this should be a big deal.

Oh God, Lurker is pretending to be what he is not again. He's no more a professional analyst than BorderTerrier is a best-selling author. His pose was exploded on ADVFN a couple of months ago, and he went silent for a while, presumably out of embarrassment, but now the troll is back.
Oh, and yes, Hummingbird's shares are indeed cheap. Why? I'm not sure. Perhaps DropInMonkey is right, at least partially. Perhaps it is just market inefficiency. Perhaps it really is deliberate share price suppression as a prelude to a takeover offer. Perhaps there's another reason.

2+2=4? Well, it all depends on how you look at it. Maths can be very tricky when human beings get involved. For instance:
1+1=1 - Marriage
1+1=3 - Parenthood
1-1=2 - Divorce
1+1+1=1 - Catholicism
1+1=10 - Computer Programmer
1+1= anything but two - Stock Market