Member Info for TigerByTheTail

For any newbies wondering what's going on here, Vast have just obtained a long awaited licence to operate a mine in Romania (Baita Plai) which will completely transform their operations there - it has an NPV of about $100, and it will generate (within months) about $15m free cash flow per year. It transforms the company.
And the best news of all is that Vast currently have two other deals waiting to conclude which are even bigger in the long term.
Anyway, good luck all. Take a look at the market cap - anything less than 50m quid is an outright steal!

So Vast did it!
This completely changes the valuation of the company, of course.
Word will spread and this will keep climbing and climbing now - especially with news of Zagra and Marange still to come.

RNS - annual report and results published and AGM announced.
Annual report well worth downloading and reading; even if it is (inevitably) backwards looking.

Shooters should be shorters, obviously!
I know that on Twitter the shorters set themselves a target price of 25p, but I think the more sensible of them must know that isn't going to happen now. So, their buying back should be good for a pretty solid 20% rally, at least!

Hi Addicknt!
I agree there - to me it sounds like they're talking to a major lithium producer to form a JV at Sonora project level. (I may be reading too much into the RNS here, but that seems the most sensible and practical solution all round to getting Sonora built and running.)
BTW, perfectly good news from Zinnwald as well!

There's no question in my mind that BCN has been heavily shorted over the last few months - see a website like Share Prophets. But I reckon this is as far down as BCN goes, and it's time for the shorters to buy back the shares they've borrowed and sold. So we should be due (at least) a nice short-covering rally. Hopefully a lot more, if those "advanced discussions" progress to something concrete.

Lurker!
Even your reply is factually wrong. I can't work out of you're trying to mislead or you're just clueless.
HUM currently receiving most of the income produced by Yanfolila (except for royalties) as loans (from HUM parent to SMK operating entity) are repaid. This beneficial situation will continue for quite some time.
As for the benefits of a 25% higher gold price, if you don't understand what that would do to ALL gold mining shares, well, then there really is no hope for you.

Lurker, you're just trolling, and I can't be bothered to reply in detail. Instead, I'll just point out two of the more startling imbecilities in your posts:
1. "HUM will only advance if gold shoots decidedly (+25%) up..."
Well, 25% would equal a $1500 gold price, way beyond the $1370 bull/bear breakout mark. If gold went to $1500 I am willing to bet any money that even the most indebted, badly managed, cruddy gold miner's shares would double in price. Hummingbird's shares would probably triple or quadruple.
2. 2011 is a long time ago. Gold prices and commodity prices in general crashed shortly afterwards. So that kind of makes a nonsense of your statement, doesn't it?
Etcetera, etcetera.

Hi, Lurker!
Have you actually read the broker note you're wittering on about?
It doesn't use three metrics for Yanfolila, but one each for Yanfolila, Cora, and Dugbe. The methodology is debatable (as always), but you're just misrepresenting with malice. As per usual.
If HUM's is currently fairly valued, then Yanfolila simply wasn't worth building. Which is kind of stupid. IMO, HUM's current SP has far more to do with "subjective" market psychology and mood than "objective" fundamentals.

Here is a hilariously under-researched and often erroneous article on rare earths. Gakara gets a mention, but as a German project owned by Rainbow's offtaker ThyssenKrupp:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-05/hot-economic-warfare-scrambling-rare-earth-minerals
Still, I suppose all publicity is good publicity!

Hi All!
Whatever did happen about the Glenover Phosphate deal? Did we ever get an explanation (which I must have missed), or is it still floating around in mid-air?

The BMR tweet doesn't have any direct connection to JLP and Kabwe.
As BringMyReward notes, there was a case against the previous pre-Borrelli management of BMR, who committed many strange and unusual acts as directors of a PLC. Seemingly, it has now been settled in BMR's favour. And Alex Borelli wants to use the money won to buy up some random mining asset, list BMR back on AIM, and to start up the whole "pump and dump" cycle all over again. The more things change, the more they stay the same!
I don't suppose for a moment that JLP's 29% stake in BMR is worth much money - it will probably be diluted down in due course anyway. However, if JLP can get Kabwe up and running, that could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
We should know about that fairly soon!

Does anybody have any idea when Zimbabwe will formally announce its new diamond policy? I know it's been extensively trailed in the press, but it never seems to actually arrive!

One way of looking at it is that Centamin downgraded their production guidance by 25,000 ounces of gold yesterday due to temporary and fixable production problems - that is, the company will suffer a loss of $30m of income at $1,200 gold price. Yet the stock market took about $200m off Centamin's market cap in response to this news. That would seem overdone and make Centamin due a bounce!
However, there are other ways of looking at yesterday's meltdown as well; such as that the CEO has been exposed as a liar and has lost the confidence of the markets, and that the final dividend is likely to be eviscerated, and that Centamin is now an obvious target for some brutal shorting.
So I'm not sure which way CEY's share price will go next week. It's just strange to see a FTSE 250 company behaving like a penny stock!

I do agree that Andrew Pardey's position must be untenable after the blatant untruths told in Denver. He won't resign, of course. So it will take an important institutional shareholder to force him out. I hope it happens.

The fall is now so sudden that I just missed my next cue to buy a tranche by 10 minutes and ended up paying 2p less per share than I had planned!
At the moment it feels like we've tumbled into a bottomless pit. But it isn't so; CEY's balance sheet is strong, and Al-Sukhari is still a world class mine. I think these are now bargain prices...

I've just made my first tentative buy back in at @96p. It's more than possible the price may drop further, and I will be adding more if it does.
I understand the anger at the BOD, which is justified. But, finally, when all is said and done, these are temporary production problems. Sukhari is a world class mine, and CEY is debt free with $300m cash. I'm not sure about the short term, but in the long run buying CEY at 96p seems to me to be a very solid proposition.
Marmot's list of possible "black swan" events also is worth studying - we live in dark and uncertain times. I'd also add a conflict with Iran and a blockage of the Straits of Hormuz (i.e. an oil supply crisis) to that list. Finally, as regards China's "secret trade weapon", that is banning the export of rare earths, I'd suggest looking at two non-Chinese rare earth miners - Lynas (on ASX), and tiddler Rainbow (RBW) on the LSE main list. Both shares could rocket IF China did indeed play the rare earth card.

Hi Rebess!
As in (for instance) another Randgold-style nil premium so-called "merger", out of which the CEO and board make a fortune, but which leaves the shareholders no better off?!?

Hi Rebess!
I also have a funny feeling about this share right now. Certainly, management can't be trusted; that's obvious!
Are we being primed for a lowball takeover?

Hi Siko,
I do agree very strongly with what you've just written. Thanks!