Member Info for TigerByTheTail

The Kodal presentation could be quite lively. Management might need a bodyguard or two to protect themselves against their own investors!

I assume that everybody realises that this early stage gold exploration company with no decent assets and very questionable management (e.g. research the bio of GGP Chairman) is not actually worth 40m quid! (Compare mcap to other gold exploration companies, many of which actually have decent assets).
This share is just a giant game of musical chairs, nothing more. And, of course, those on the inside know when the music will stop in advance, so they will beat the average PI every time. Personally, I don't see why people bother to play the game...

I'm not a liker of such "hints" from AIM companies as the BHP tweet. If management have something to say, they should say it officially in an RNS. If not, the best thing they can do is to keep silent.
IMO, the immediate future of the share price is almost wholly dependent on the BP licence. If it can be delivered, that a. puts Vast's Romanian operations on a much more solid financial footing, and b. it confirms that we PIs are right to trust in management here. If the BP licence doesn't turn up soon, then (rightly or wrongly) the SP will get hammered.

Centamin underperforming very markedly against its peers today. Gold is actually nearing $1,200 again, and most gold shares are almost flat.
So I've bought a few more shares, in two separate tranches. Once for a long term hold, and once because I think the share price will bounce back to 100p before the end of the month, and that's a quick 7% gain. Time will tell if I'm right or wrong!

And yet the site visit presentation issued yesterday upheld the revised production guidance for this year of 505,000 to 515,000 ounces.
So, crisis, what crisis?
I think Marmot's post of 16.02 yesterday (outlining the outsized effect that ETF investment has on Centamin) was very close to the mark.

In this tricky situation, I would love to be one of Bacanora's bondholders.
If the company does raise the money to build the mine, you win. (The company pays you back your loan).
If the company fails to get the finance, then eventually shareholders will get wiped out and the bondholders will end up owning the company. Sonora is still an excellent project, so you win big time!
(Some similarities to the Tesla situation here - it's also better to own the bonds than the shares there, IMO).
At this point, the BOD must be considering an outright sale of the company to a major. They would be failing in their fiduciary duties if they weren't.

I believe totally investment into Dugbe by HUM is about $70m. (I'm not 100% sure of this, so if any other poster knows better, please correct).
But Hummingbird never did find a high grade easy to mine gold zone in Liberia, only hard to mine medium grade zones (but lots of them). So, objectively, Dugbe is probably not worth all the money put into it.
Right now, of course, not a penny of the value of Dugbe is in the HUM share price. The market has more or less forgotten about the project. So, any upside at all from Liberia would be wonderful.

Hi! I agree that the sale of Tabakoto for $60m is a good piece of business for Endeavour. In general, Endeavour are a good company.
However, I just don't know if Endeavour will make an offer for Hummingbird or not, or when they will, if they do. We do know that the two boards have been talking, and that there are many links between the two companies. But that's not the same as actually making an offer.
By the way, I keep checking the Liberian press for any more news about the Mineral Development Agreement for Dugbe. As you know, the MDA passed the Senate and House of Representatives, but was then vetoed by President George Weah. Since, then, only silence.
(In general, reading the Liberian press daily also makes you realise how hard it will be to build a gold mine there, far harder than in Mali. An outright sale of Dugbe for say $60m (= $15 per ounce of gold in the ground) would make me very happy!)

Well, I did buy a few Centamin shares today; though I admit I sold some shares of another goldie (with a much weaker balance sheet and higher costs) at the same time. Centamin seems to me undervalued versus its peers right now. It's debt free and holding $300m cash - that must count for something!
I wouldn't want to hazard a guess to the future price of gold right now - it could easily be going down further.

I must admit to being tempted to buy back in at this price.
However, I'm going to wait and see until the end of this week. Trump is probably going to put another $200bn's worth of tariffs on Chinese imports in a couple of days, and how China retaliates is anybody's guess. If China does decide to devalue the yuan (either openly or surreptitiously) then this could mean more woe for gold, and by extension, for Centamin.

The trouble is, why buy now?
Yes, the current share price is cheap. Very cheap, if you believe that mine will go ahead. But a lot of equity still needs to be raised for that to happen, and that will inevitably be at a discount to the current share price. And that equity raise will also substantially deaisk the project as well. So, why buy now? Why not wait until after the raise?

Interims last year came out on 27th September.
Same again this year? Or maybe a little earlier?

I figure that we'll get some more Blueberry drill results today - they should make interesting reading.
As for the BP licence RNS, I hope we'll get that as well. But who knows?

Can we do it? Can we trade less than 10,000 quid's worth of shares in a day? Into the last two hours and only four trades so far...
What happened to volume here? Isn't this a 100m quid company?

At the moment approx. 0.612 is selling and 0.622 is buying, and trades are about balanced, despite the apparent sea of red on the board.
I have a feeling that somebody is quietly accumulating shares here, and that this level may be a new "floor" for the share price. (Fair enough, considering the potential upside here!). I'm wondering if the buyer could be the HNWI who took the shares in Tuesday's placing at 0.645. The placing was for the maximum number of shares allowed by the current headroom, so it's more than possible the same HNWI is happy to accumulate a few more at a slightly cheaper price.

Hi Woodaldo!
Very much agree with your post - Zimbabwe right now, in particular, is a once in a lifetime chance. This magical moment, when assets worth hundreds of millions, or even billions, can be picked up for very little, won't last long. I'm very glad to see AP seizing this incredibly rare opportunity with both hands.
The market will catch up with all the positive developments here sooner or later. Let's hope it's a little sooner rather than later. The Baita Plai licence dropping would help, if only to get the monkey of it off our backs.

Does anybody know when we should get the next set of drill results from Blueberry? It should be soon, shouldn't it?
Hopefully, this time the results will include information about the locations of the drill holes and their spacing. I found it hard to analyse the previous set without this key info. My only conclusion was that if the holes represented "the sterile area" around the breccia pipes (as AP indicated in an interview) then they were interesting, but if they were from the heart of those pipes, then not so much. Anyway, we've only had the results from a little more than 10% of the total meterage to be drilled. so there is still a long way to go.

Woah, there! So US inflation is rising and gold falls?!?
I thought it was meant to be the other way around.

We know that a HNWI bought slightly less than 3% of Vast at .645p a couple of days ago. We also know that the number of shares issued by Vast was limited as it bumped up against the allowable headroom. It's quite likely our HNWI was actually willing to buy more.
So, is it possible that today's SP turnaround is simply this same HNWI adding to his/her stake on the open market - at a slightly lower price than he/she paid in the placing?

No trades yet today, and it's nearly midday!