Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Here are a few of my questions for the call tomorrow morning - all regarding Kabwe. Does anybody have any other questions to add?
1. Is the cost of building the plant at Kabwe to be financed from the existing $50m credit line? If not, where is the money coming from?
2. According to previous BMR RNSs, in order to keep the reissued licence the plant had to be operational by the end of this year. You are now stating that the zinc circuit will be operational by next summer. Has this been cleared with the Zambian authorities? Are there any licence issues that we should know of?
3. When (roughly) do you expect the lead circuit to come online?
4. When (roughly) do you expect Zambian government approval for the construction of the vanadium circuit?
5. Have you made any estimates that you can share of the potential costs of the entire Kabwe project and its potential returns?

I hope the Zambian government angle gets covered off in the call tomorrow.
Reading between the lines it looks like this deal has their OK. But it would be good to know for a fact. I'll try and get on and ask this question...

Well, it's been slow and it's been messy. It has destroyed the share price for a few months. But JLP now have 87.5% of Kabwe for very little outlay. If we can forget how we got here, it's a fantastic deal for JLP. Kabwe is simply huge, and making a success of it will transform the company completely.
So, IMO, congratulations are due to Leon Coetzer and Colin Bird!
Once Kabwe is up and running, mcap here should be well over 100m quid.

The share of Kabwe (87.5%, and possibly 89%) is quite a bit bigger than I expected (I was thinking 75%).
Also, no upfront payments or further JLP shares to be issued to BMR. At some point BMR will sell off their 4% shareholding in JLP, but that's a pretty cheap price to pay for about $2bn worth of tailings (which I reckon should yield a free cash flow in the high hundreds of millions of dollars.
Really good deal.

Wonderful news!
87.5% control of Kabwe, no takeover of BMR and therefore no associated legal risks, clear path to mid-tier status for Jubilee once the project is executed.

Well, that was what I was waiting for, so I bought in this morning. Wasn't prepared to risk it until now.
I assume that there are many other investors like me, so today could be interesting...

Lobon - ETFs made up of underlying gold miner shares - in the case of GDXJ underlying junior gold miner shares. Can't imagine a more accurate sector average, can you?

Come on, compare to XAU, GDX, GDXJ or any other average industry measure, rather than to a specific company.
They're all down over the last month, but nothing like HUM (or apparently GCY).
And, remember, that HUM has actually had very good news concerning production from Yanfolila during this period. So the discrepancy in performance is very marked indeed.

AAZ has its own problems in Azerbaijan - a country I know very well and a graveyard for international investors.
Gold mining stocks in general are down, but nothing like HUM. This SP fall is very much company specific.

Other good news today - platinum price has bounced after Impala announced cuts in production.
COT report indicates record numbers of platinum shorts as well, so we could be due a nice secondary rise in the next few days as the shorts get squeezed.

IMO, a strong pattern of 50K and 25K round number sells started appearing yesterday, and it has continued today.
It may be an institution selling down; possibly due to a rules-based decision as HUM's market cap has dropped below the key level of 100m pounds.
Certainly, this plummet in the share price is not due to a relatively minor fall in the gold price over the last few days. Other gold miners have held steady or dropped only slightly.
Fundamentals are also very strong, as Darola pointed out earlier. Actually, they are crazily strong.
IMO, it's a confidence issue - belief that the BOD will act in the best interests of shareholders (rather than their own) is rock bottom.
I have a long term outlook on this share, so I am relatively calm. If the HUM BOD can't sort this out, then a takeover will happen sooner or later. However, I do understand that these could be nervous times for those who need to extract their money from HUM in the near future.

I just want to say well done to Leon Coetzer and Colin Bird.
JLP are going to receive the lion's share (I'd guess 70% to 80%) of the profits from reprocessing the tailings at Kabwe (a sum in the high hundreds of millions) for a fairly minimal outlay. The process was slow and ugly, it trashed the share price for a few months, and it involved some dilution, but the returns in the years to come will be huge.
I particularly approve of the way that even now BMR (and its possible associated hidden liabilities) are being kept at a safe arm's length from JLP.
I'm not expecting a really big move up in the share price today. That will probably come when the final plans for Kabwe are announced and JLP release some figures. But I am happy with this morning's news.

That's the end of BMR as a company trading on AIM, yes.
What happens next, I don't know.
Hopefully, tomorrow will bring news...

Dear Visitor!
Are you kidding?!? Interview absolutely flakey and unserious and simply pitiful from a CEO who is meant to "inspire the confidence of markets":
Changing the entire strategic direction of the company on a whim without serious prior consultation with the shareholders - tick...
Paying up $1.5m because Bunker Hill is about to go bankrupt, but before completing due diligence on the project (Jeez, what a sucker!) - tick
Fancying a go at Peru, like a kid on his gap year - tick
Mania of grandeur - tick
Get real! Honestly, I'm tempted to write to the Chairman to tell him to intervene. It's time the adults took over here.

Look on the ADVFN board for HUM - somebody's posted all of it there.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I'm expecting confirmation of BMR delisting (due to having no Nomad and 1 month having passed) tomorrow morning.

Hi Tom!
Here you go...
www.mining-journal.com/leadership/news/1343715/q-hummingbird-ceo-reflects-on-first-mine-build

I've just read the original interview that JohnnyWaz partially posted here.
Serious, friendly advice to Dan Betts:
When you are in a hole stop digging. Your attempts to justify the unjustifiable - the move off piste into lead/zinc mining in the U.S. - come off as flakey and entirely unserious. They simply won't do for the CEO of a PLC.
For God's sake, just say that Bunker Hill failed due diligence and (if necessary) take the loss of the $1.5m convertible loan. It's not so much.
Hummingbird's share price is telling you that your shareholders would currently welcome a takeover bid, even a hostile one, with open arms. And, even allowing for a 50% takeover premium, you know that 150m quid is not much to pay for all the potential of Yanfolila + Cora + Dugbe.
So, if you want to keep your job and company, change course now.
Best Wishes,
A Shareholder

Can I just admit to being confused?
HUM market cap is now 95 million quid (and net debt as of Q2 results was around $15m).
The current valuation makes no sense at all (unless you really believe the price of gold is going below $1,000 per ounce).
Or what am I missing?

I think the results were as good as could be hoped for, given the previous profit warning. It's going to be a steep ask to meet the revised production guidance.
I also like that some info has (finally) been released on the West African exploration projects.