Member Info for TigerByTheTail

BTW, today's RNS absolutely not the RNS (or, rather, the series of RNSs) that I'm waiting for here.
They (I hope) will be about the new JV with Vast in Zimbabwe, Marange, and the possible involvement of Alrosa as a partner there as well.
But I still like this RNS.

Interesting and hopeful results...

Hi M@Aim!
"So my question is: Why would US increase tax on Rare Earths metals considering the fact that they don't have much inhouse Rare Earth production? Is n't it China that should do that instead of US?"
Good question! I think the answer might be as simple as: "Because the U.S. is currently run by idiots."

I agree that Dan Betts and the HUM management team do need to act quickly and decisively over the dismal share price.
Firstly, I don't understand if all the shares held by the 14,000 or so clients of HUM's defunct ex-broker Beaufort have now been sold off by the administrator. IMO, this forced liquidation has played a major part in forcing down HUM's share price over the last few months. (N.B. Beaufort were notorious for keeping business in-house and hard selling the shares of their company clients to their investment clients, so this is a rational concern. It's noticeable that Beaufort's other company clients have also suffered significant SP declines recently.) So, if there are Beaufort client-held shares still to be sold off, management really need to make strong efforts to find institutional buyers for them.
Secondly, IMO, we need a small but well-targeted share buyback scheme, to start as soon as the relevant court documents are approved. I think even $5m spent on this now would mop up all the excess liquidity and drive the SP back up to 40p. I'd argue that (given HUM's current ultra-low SP) this would represent an extremely effective use of the company's free cash flow.
I do agree with Perry that a takeover is a real possibility here. I assume management don't actually want that outcome!

For me, the worst thing here is that the market cap is still 32m quid, which is an awful lot for a company in the kind of mess that RedT are in. I know that the SP has fallen a long way already, but I fear it still has a long way to go.

I agree that the BP licence will be an intraday RNS when it comes. I'm sure the basic text is already written and ready to be issued the moment the paperwork is stamped and signed off.
We entered my "red zone" this morning. I figure anytime between now and next Monday.

Dear Border Terrier!
You're a literary chap, aren't you? You probably know the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". You see, for me, your credibility hasn't so much been shot, as skinned, stuffed, and mounted on a wall. So, please forgive me, if I have my reservations about your hit books, your impressive property portfolio, your enviable fleet of luxury automobiles, your yacht, and your private jet. Or, for that matter, about your supposedly lucrative sales of your questionable HUMRF "shares". Perhaps these things only exist in your head. They do say all writers are rich in their imaginations.
BTW, it may be know a little about America, having lived and worked there and having an American wife. And America is indeed beautiful, especially where its people are not. But many parts of Trumpland are Third World poor and just plain dangerous. Thank-you, I much prefer this green and pleasant land.

Dear Border Terrier!
I think you should concentrate on your own problems in the US, which may be rather serious, rather than worrying about ours.
You say that you own "HUMRF" shares - an over-the-counter (OTC) unlisted and unregulated stock issued in New York by some shadowy broker (perhaps distantly related to the now defunct Beaufort). Presumably, their claim is that each "HUMRF" share they sell is backed by one real genuine HUM share issued by Hummingbird in London and held by them.
But how do you know that this is true?!?
I have never seen any statement by Hummingbird sanctioning or promoting the sale of "HUMRF" stock, or even acknowledging that "HUMRF" stock exists.
How do you know that your "HUMRF" shares are actually backed by real assets - i.e. Hummingbird shares?
I'm confident that you won't be able to exchange your "HUMRF" shares for real regulated London-listed "HUM" shares very easily.
So perhaps you should try to sell your "HUMRF" shares? If the New York broker doesn't want them back, or wants only a few, or charges you a huge spread, then you can be pretty sure that you've fallen for a boiler room scam.
In short, no matter how well Hummingbird performs as a company, your "HUMRF" shares may be entirely worthless.
My apologies if I am the bearer of bad news. But the world of the "pink sheets" is full of such con jobs.
Caveat emptor and all that.

Hi Tom!
Considering all that we know about Dugbe, I'd think it a near certainty that management are in a "closed period", and that they have been for some time already.
Oddly, if we get an RNS stating that management has bought shares anytime soon, then that's probably bad news, as it likely means that the Dugbe JV negotiations have failed.

Hi Perry!
No, I don't have any problems with your post, and I don't think many others will. It's reasoned and civil.
FWIW, I agree (at least, in part) with some of your points, and I disagree strongly with some others.
A few notes:
a. First up, I agree that Mali offers HUM more interesting opportunities than Liberia, and that company communications have been poor of late, particularly as regards the security incident. I would love to know what effect Beaufort's demise has had on the share price over the last few months, but I'll guess we'll never know that.
b. HUM didn't sell any shares to a selected buyer at a discount, as you state. I assume that you are referring to the bloc sale of shares by La Petite Mine a few months ago here. Yes, HUM may have played a role in finding a buyer for those shares, but that's all. The price would have been negotiated by the two parties, and anybody selling off a huge bloc of shares must expect to be bargained down; that's how markets work.
c. I think you're being unfair to HUM about Dugbe in Liberia. As far as I can see, the intent is not to spend a lot more money on Dugbe; rather it is to conclude the MDA, and to find a joint venture partner who will put up the capital required to develop the mine. I actually feel that HUM have been right to keep quiet about this until everything is signed and sealed - these things are sensitive. Some of the Liberian press allegations are patently ridiculous (such as a Liberian Senator owning 10% of HUM, or Dugbe having 14 trillion ounces of gold). It doesn't bother me that the company hasn't responded to them. As far as I can tell, Liberians don't take their own newspapers very seriously, either.
d. I assume that the potential JV partner for Dugbe will turn out to be Endeavour. There's a lot of circumstantial evidence for this. I also wouldn't be surprised if their name popped up off the shareholders' register in the near future, because I think somebody has been building a strategic stake in HUM behind the scenes. Will this lead to a full takeover in due course? Possibly. And, if so, will Dan Betts get a seat on the Endeavour board? Again, possibly. But, remember, if a takeover does happen, we shareholders will receive a substantial premium on today's share price.
e. Finally, I'm happy to hold shares in a company with such strong fundamentals. And, yes, management might be young and "inexperienced" - but they did deliver a gold mine on time and on budget, and also they did complete its ramp up on schedule. Very few mining executives can boast of that achievement - I believe that on average new gold mines come in 3 months late and 20% over budget. So, for me, HUM remains a strong buy.

Hi Ton-fra-cen!
Yes, very much what I was thinking. It's a big ask to improve the feed grades so much so quickly in order to achieve current full year guidance. I also fail to understand how the grade control drilling could have gone so wrong.
This is subjective, but IMO management coming across as flaky and frankly not up to the job.
They say bad news comes in threes, so I'm expecting the share price to suffer more when the full quarterlies are released next month. Headline AISC is going to look horrible. And there must be a question about the interim dividend.
I'm one of the lucky ones here: I sold out entirely at about 160p recently, and then only bought back a few at 120p-125p. For now, I'm not tempted to add more.
In the normal course of events Centamin would now get bought out by a major looking to add production ounces and reserves. And that would be good - because better management is desperately needed here. But, unfortunately, the court case will almost certainly put off any potential purchasers. And so this unsatisfactory situation goes on without a resolution.

Vast Resources plc

("Vast" or the "Company")

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Appointment of Diamond Specialist to Board of Vast Resources Zimbabwe

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Vast Resources plc, the AIM-listed mining company with operating mines in Romania and Zimbabwe, is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr Mark Mabhudhu, a preeminent figure in the Zimbabwean diamond industry, to the Board of Vast's wholly owned subsidiary, Vast Resources Zimbabwe (Private) Limited. Mr Mabhudhu's appointment is in line with the Company's updated strategy to increase its footprint in Zimbabwe, seeking new opportunities and revitalising historic claims.

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Mr Mabhudhu, who has a BSc (Hons) degree in metallurgical engineering, an MBA, an MPhil in Information & Knowledge Management, and is currently working on his Doctoral studies, is a full-time resident of Zimbabwe and Zimbabwean national with over 25 years' experience in the mining industry. Of this, more than 22 years has been focussed on diamond mining both in Zimbabwe and internationally, including 11 years with Debswana, the joint venture company between De Beers and the Government of Botswana. Mr Mabhudhu's recent positions include Chief Executive Officer of Government owned Zimbabwe Consolidated Diamond Company (Pvt) Ltd and Chief Executive Officer and, prior to that, Chief Operating Officer, of Marange Resources (Pvt) Ltd. Under his leadership as Chief Executive Officer of Marange Resources (Pvt) Ltd, Mr Mabhudhu implemented a turnaround strategy, which resulted in the Company achieving profitability after several years of financial distress.

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Andrew Prelea, Chief Executive of Vast, commented:

"The political amelioration in Zimbabwe over recent months has made us revaluate our activities in the country and we are now actively seeking new opportunities and exploring options through which to revive historic claims in order to build a significant presence in the region. I am confident that Mark's experience, network and influence will expedite this evaluation process as we look to expand our current mineralised footprint, comprising the Pickstone-Peerless, Giant and Eureka Gold Mines, to establish a significant presence in the Zimbabwean mining industry in the near term."

Hi NatCoalKing!
Thanks for the eloquent recommendation. But I'm sure time will show I'm right. Feel free to apologise in early August.

Very slick, professional video on Yanfollila. Really gives a sense of the scale of the Komana East pit.

Just to remind everybody, the new Socialist government in Madrid has a clearly stated anti-nuclear policy, as do their allies Podemos. They plan to close down Spain's 7 nuclear reactors asap (and also to close down their coal-fired power stations), and to replace them with a mix of gas-fired power stations and renewables.
I don't know if I would call this policy "green" - probably not. I also don't think it is exactly wise for Spain to rely on gas from Algeria. But that's what it is.
And, yes, Pope Urban, I do very much believe BKY are not telling their shareholders "the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth." The last RNS is incredibly selective in its facts.

My definition of financial insanity would include shorting Vast shares at the moment. You'd have to be really, really crazy to do that. That, or like Brewster in the flick Brewster's Millions, be a man with a mission to lose it all as fast as possible.

Yes, still here, still holding.
Waiting for quarterlies and also for gold price to improve. Also for any more signs of a possible JV deal for Dugbe.
I can't really explain the market's current lack of interest in Hummingbird, but in the end value will out. That or the company will simply be able to buy back 40% of its own shares with the free cash flow it will generate before Christmas!

FWIW, I regard delisting from AIM as a near certainty at the beginning of August. As things are, AB won't find a new Nomad, and won't be able to place new shares or relist.
If JLP go the full takeover route the most BMR holders can hope for, IMO, is 1 BMR share becomes 1 JLP share.
But maybe a 2:1 or 3:1 all share takeover offer is more realistic now. I don't see AB has any kind of a negotiating position.
There are also alternative ways forward, such as:
a. JLP could buy the entire Zambian business from BMR, leaving BMR with cash + the Ester project in Portugal. This, obviously, would be a horrible outcome for BMR shareholders, but it would mean the gravy train keeps on rolling for AB, so it's possible.
b. If JLP are REALLY, REALLY scared of past legal misdoings by BMR, they might rearrange the Kabwe joint venture so that they have a very large share of the profits (say 85%) and BMR retain a small proportion (say 15%). Legally, this would keep BMR's past misdeeds away from JLP. (Remember, that when you take over a company, you get not only its assets, but you also get its liabilities.)
All IMO, of course.

Hi EasyP!
Since you asked! Here's an article from (very pro-business) Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-03/uranium-mine-in-spain-pits-employment-against-radiation-worries
For myself, I find it very hard to believe that a Spanish government in Madrid run by the Socialists (and, even worse, reliant on the votes for far left Podemos) will allow the mine to go forward. The minority central government may not be strong enough to stop the project outright, but they will at least delay it indefinitely. Rightly or wrongly, these are people who have been anti-nuclear all their political lives. And Berkeley aren't even a Spanish company, and can be presented as exploitative foreigners.
It doesn't matter what the regional government of Castilla y Leon (led by BKY's Partido Popolare friends) say. The fate of BKY will be decided centrally by BKY's political enemies in Madrid.
That's why I objected to the last RNS. It was designed to deceive investors into thinking everything was OK, when it clearly is not, without actually lying outright. And, to state the obvious, I'm not interested in investing in companies who mistreat their shareholders in this way. It really is high time that Paul Atherley came clean and gave his shareholders a full and frank statement of BKYs true position.

Vigenere - it's a cold hard fact, not my supposition. The current vanadium price spike is due to cutbacks in magnetite iron ore production in both Russia and China. (Most of the world's vanadium is actually produced as a by-product of iron ore smelting, not mined separately. It's highly questionable if mining for vanadium alone (e.g. Largo) is long term commercially viable.) Some of this production (e.g. the giant Magnitogorsk plant in Russia) is coming back online. Expect vanadium prices to crash back to earth in the near future.
You've obviously been reading the BMN thread too much. That, finally, will be very dangerous for your wealth. I (and I think most serious people) regard BMN as a typical AIM scam. Certainly, all their talk of vanadium redox batteries suddenly becoming widely adopted is ridiculous in the extreme.
All told, there's a lot of hype and bull**** floating around vanadium right now - as with lithium and cobalt.
Finally, we shouldn't assume that it will be easy, or even perhaps possible, to extract the vanadium from the tailings at Kabwe and turn it into a commercially saleable product, such as V2O5 chippings. Vanadium chemistry is very tricky due to its polyvalency. I wait to see what LC comes up with on this front.