Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Anybody have any firm info on the Liberian Mineral Development Agreement? I've just read through the Liberian Observer website, and it is clear the MDA has passed the Senate and House of Representatives, so it just needs Pres. George Weah's signature to become law. The road loans that were passed at the same time have been signed into law, but Hummingbird's MDA is still waiting, I think.

Hi Hazrat! No, I'm still here. And I'm still optimistic about the medium / long term future. However, I did sell 80% pf my shares at about 22p, thinking that there would be a lull in news and there would have to be a raise to fund the JORC drilling (not sure I was right about that). Considering a re-entry soon - though it would help if some of my other shares were doing better!

Hi Itsaduster! IMO, Dan is playing with fire at the moment and may well get burnt. If a half reasonable takeover offer came in, he would have to consult with the larger shareholders, and they would quickly make it clear that they were in favour of taking the money on offer. Dan could object, but nobody would listen to him. Nobody is going to turn down a 40% premium over a share price that has been in decline for more than six months! If Dan really wants to keep control of Hummingbird, I would suggest he needs to act now, before a takeover bid is made, to arrest the current slump in investor confidence. At the moment the market is effectively saying that it has no belief in his leadership and that Yanfolila and Dugbe would be "worth" more in the hands of another company. What's he got to say to change the market's mind about that? (BTW, I have an inkling that there is a predator behind the scenes, but not sure of it. Certainly, not sure enough to post their name here. But note the lack of a TR-1 despite all the recent buying.)

What I don't understand is why the Chinese don't offload as many US Treasuries as they can whilst the US dollar is high, put the money into gold futures whilst the gold price is low, and then insist on physical delivery when the gold futures contracts mature. Surely, this would send the gold price soaring when the demand for bullion couldn't be met, and be one of the most profitable trades in history. Or am I wrong? And, yes, Centamin did stand up well against the onslaught today. Other miners performed notably worse.

Hi Mr. Tibbles! Many thanks for forwarding my post to Centamin. I'm not sure we'll get a reply to it, though. I think it may cut too close to the bone. But let's hope so!

Hi Otho! Thanks for posting these links. I assume that Pres. George Weah's signature on the bill is only a formality, so we should have an RNS about the Liberian MDA on Monday. I'm intrigued to learn if all this activity means that Hummingbird have a JV partner or other plan in place for the development of Dugbe, or if this is just keeping the paperwork in order. Hopefully, the company will explain in detail.

Hi Mr. Tibbles! Thanks for the reply. I do think the problems at Centamin are much bigger than just the inadequate supervision of Barminco and the failure to control drill the pit properly. Issues that have concerned me over the past year include: 1. The departure of Josef - a biggie, this one. He will be truly missed. In the long run, it's crucial that Contemn retains an Egyptian link, and that it doesn't come across as a 100% foreign operation. How is this to be achieved now? 2. The sheer arrogance and impudence of the board regarding their own remuneration. I just don't see that they are worth their extravagant salaries and bonuses. 3. The employment of the former COO of Acacia. Acacia's downfall was brutal but justified, and largely caused by their own dishonest and even inhuman business practices in Tanzania. Activists estimate that over 60 locals were killed (i.e. murdered) at their North Mara mine alone by Acacia's own security guards and the local police (bribed by Acacia). And we're employing their COO? Why, for God's sake?!? 4. The very late delivery of the resource revision for Sukhari. 5. The ongoing failure to deliver resource reports for West Africa, or to clearly set out a development plan for there. Have tens of millions of dollars simply been wasted? 6. The failure to articulate a clear vision for the future, in general. CEO mumbling platitudes and then paying out 100% of profits as dividends doesn't really count as a "vision". Where is the ambition? In short, one has the impression that the Centamin boardroom is a paradise for plodders. Under normal circumstances, Centamin would (and should) have been taken over, of course. But the court case acts as a perfect "poison pill" defence against a takeover. And so mediocrity goes on being richly rewarded. As I said, at this price Centamin is a buy for me, because Sukhari is a world class mine. But the board should not delude themselves that they are doing a good job, or that the current share price is only a blip. It's a fair reflection of their own inadequacy.

This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation 596/2014. Further to its announcement on 2 May 2018, BMR announces that it was informed yesterday by Jubilee Metals Group PLC ("Jubilee") that discussions between Jubilee, in its capacity as operator of the proposed Kabwe plant, and the Zambian authorities are not expected to conclude until later this month. Accordingly, Jubilee will not be in a position to (i) finalise its initial design, work programme and budget for the construction phase of the Kabwe plant and (ii) make its decision whether to proceed with the plant development until these discussions conclude. BMR anticipates updating shareholders on both matters by the end of June.

This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation 596/2014. Further to its announcement on 2 May 2018, BMR announces that it was informed yesterday by Jubilee Metals Group PLC ("Jubilee") that discussions between Jubilee, in its capacity as operator of the proposed Kabwe plant, and the Zambian authorities are not expected to conclude until later this month. Accordingly, Jubilee will not be in a position to (i) finalise its initial design, work programme and budget for the construction phase of the Kabwe plant and (ii) make its decision whether to proceed with the plant development until these discussions conclude. BMR anticipates updating shareholders on both matters by the end of June.

My thanks also, Mr. Tibbles. But I'm still concerned that there is an air of complacency about management. I'm one of the lucky ones; I sold out at 160p in April sensing that the company was losing its way, and I have only bought back in after the profit warning. But 160p to 116p is NOT a blip; it is a crash.

Even after the recent profit warning, this seems a silly price for CEY shares now. So I'm buying. Not sure if we've hit the bottom yet, so holding some money back for later. Yes, I'm expecting this month's quarterly figures to be pretty ugly, and management should be embarrassed by the situation. But, in the final analysis, the bad numbers will only reflect temporary operational difficulties. In the long run, Sukhari is still one of the world's best gold mines.

Hi Otho! For once I must disagree with you. Once a takeover approach is made, Hummingbird's BOD will quickly discover that their "long term" institutional shareholders are very keen on a quick short term profit. (After all, that would guarantee everybody's bonuses this year). And most PIs will happily take the money on offer as well; especially after the last six months of suffering. The key to defending against a takeover is to act before an approach becomes public. After an approach is made, the market normally ignores most of what the target company announces - by then it's too late. So, in my opinion, if Dan Betts wants to keep control of Hummingbird, he need to react now to the current share price. Firstly, he needs to accept that the current communications strategy is a failure. The concrete proof of this is the dismal share price and also the low average trading volume. Even on this board really basic questions, such as has the drilling campaign actually started, are being asked. These should have already been answered. More generally, at the moment this is a "forgotten" share. Secondly, the complete silence on Dugbe has led to none of its value being "in" the share price - it's 4.2m ounces of gold. Even at a low $15 per ounce "in ground" valuation that's worth $63m, that's half Hummingbird's current mcap! Thirdly, Dan Betts needs to clearly articulate a vision of Hummingbird's future, which includes financial projections. I know he's said something about this here and there, but this really needs to be laid out in one place and in detail. Fourthly, he needs to get out and sell that vision to city institutions. I know he spent two days doing that In May, but clearly that wasn't enough. It's not enough to be an excellent manager and to bring things in on time and on budget. Promoting a stock is also a key part of a CEO's role. Fifthly, given that Hummingbird has effectively a giant "For Sale" sign on it right now, IMO Dan Betts should also consider a one-off share buy back, starting next month. He can talk all he likes about the long term and "building an empire", but the short term comes first, and Hummingbird won't exist as an independent company much longer if he doesn't act. Just do the maths - a takeover could be fully financed out of about 4-5 years of the current projected cash flows of Yanfolila. If that's not an appealing proposition for a buyer, I don't know what is!

Well, all I can say is that if I were in Dan Betts' shoes, I would be announcing a share buy back as soon as possible, simply as a ploy to forestall a takeover. Given its assets, its estimated cash-flows, and its current market cap, Hummingbird has a giant target symbol painted on it. As things are presently, I don't expect the company to last until Christmas as an independent entity. Perhaps we should start a sweepstake on who the buyer will be, when they will make an offer, and at what share price? I will start with Endeavour, in late July, at 45p. (TBH, I will be a little bit sad when Hummingbird is taken over. But I will take the money, of course. Current management have my confidence, but they don't seem to be able to win the confidence of the wider market (as reflected by the current truly dismal share price). And that's how it goes).

Yes, I agree, another weird RNS. Is this RNS to prepare the market for another issue of equity? Drilling costs decent money, and I don't imagine KZG have much spare cash lying around. (Hard to be sure, of course, as the company is totally opaque, but in these cases it's normally best to assume the worst). But, then again, how much could KZG raise at this share price, especially considering the share-flippers are ****ed off after the last raise (on which they lost money)? Is it KZG's way of announcing (by implication) that they have stopped mining completely? Certainly, no shipments are reported. And the company hasn't reported any financials at all, or even made a simple statement such as the mine is breaking even on opex. So, I assume, by omission, that the mine is still loss-making. Certainly, the mine would seem to up for sale. But will there be any buyers?

Vigenere - get off your high horse! Nobody knows the true state of BMR's books, except insiders, but anybody with any financial education can see that BMR is in very deep trouble. And we know that Alex Borelli is not to be trusted an inch (November placing, Blue Square, etc.). I know you're an investor in BMR and worried that the company may never emerge from suspension, especially given that six months will be up in a few weeks' time. But you can't stop people asking very reasonable questions. My only concern here is JLP. The deal for Kabwe is a good one, and hopefully circumstances will allow for JLP to increase their percentage share in the JV. However, given all we now know, I would be strongly against JLP taking over BMR fully; when you buy somebody out you don't only get to own their assets, you also get to own their liabilities. And I fear to think what BMR's hidden liabilities may be.

Re: Marange Sorry, Castaway, you don't seem to understand the importance of clear chain of title for a serious international investor. An international investor will not, can not, touch Marange until and unless there is a settlement with Vast. If not, they are leaving themselves wide open to international legal action, and their own in-house lawyers would never permit that. The Zimbabwean government have a choice. They can: 1. Leave Marange in the hands of its current operators (sanctioned Zimbabwean entities) and rely on the biddable Zimbabwean courts to rule in their favour. In which case, diamond production can be expected to continue to decline; or: 2. Seek an international partner with the vital mining know-how and capital to take Marange forward, especially now that the "easy" alluvial diamonds are largely depleted. However, if they choose this route (and I believe they will), there must be a settlement with Vast (ex-ACR). Otherwise, the dispute can be taken outside Zimbabwean courts to international forums, and Vast will almost certainly win. In short, Vast have a powerful "hold" over the future of Marange, if Zimbabwe really is intent on opening itself up to international investors.

Key phrase from Liberia: The Senate also ratified the Mineral Development Agreement between Hummingbird Resources-Liberia and the government for the development of gold resources in Sinoe, Grand Kru, River Gee and Maryland Counties, respectively. Hopefully, the company will expand on the full meaning of this in an RNS. As not a penny of the value of Dugbe is currently reflected in HUM's SP, this can only be positive news! I still wonder if HUM aren't looking for a JV partner for Dugbe. I can think of quite a few potential partners, from Avesoro (ASO), who have a working gold mine in Liberia (New Century), all the way up to Randgold (at 4.2m ounces Dugbe exceeds their self-imposed 3m ounce project cut-off limit).

IMO, Vast will most likely get "something" from Marange, and fairly soon. Marange desperately needs foreign investment. And any serious foreign investors will not put money into Marange until they can be assured that the legal title to Marange is clear; if not, they risk being sued by Vast (formerly ACR) in an international court. So, one way or another, a settlement over Marange will have to be reached, which will inevitably involve either a fee to Vast, or a royalty payment, or both. It might also involve an exploration role for BOD (via the recent JV). Ask any lawyer, they will say much the same. IMO, Vast's legal position on Marange is much stronger than most posters here seem to realise.

VAST market cap currently 24m. I'd reckon this was about fair value for the existing Zimbabwe assets alone. Pickstone Peerless is a profitable producing gold mine, Eureka can be put back into production quite quickly, and Giant is a good prospect. IMO, VAST's current share price does not allow for: 1. The possibility (probability, actually) of new deals in Zimbabwe 2. And, above all, the entirety of the Romanian operation!!! Even without the BP licence dropping, IMO there is an easy 50%-100% upside here.

Hi All! Sorry to see that no miracles have occurred here - though to save KZG it might need an Old Testament prophet striking a rock with his staff and water gushing forth in the desert. Agree with RBR's suggestion that posters here take a look at VAST. IMO, it's the right moment moment to put money in. But DYOR.