Member Info for TigerByTheTail

In all seriousness, there is a major mismatch here between the apparent value of Vast, (as calculated by any commonly used metric) and the market capitalisation. This share "should" be trading at over 1p right now, even before the BP licence is issued.
But AIM is AIM, and it can and does get companies badly wrong. Sometimes it overinflates their worth to a ridiculous degree (UKOG, GGP etc.), and sometimes it doesn't recognise real value for months on end. Traders trading this share to death doesn't help, either. But, in the end, value always comes out.

The reality, Mr. Bond, is that you're plain wrong.
Josef sold his shares over a year ago. There is no way that he could have known that the current production problems were coming then.
At most, he may have sensed the complacency creeping into the board. That may be why he chose to resign. I don't know.
What I do now for sure is that he will be sorely missed. I would happily see the current board gone and Josef back!

Thanks for posting this link, but it's not exactly the "latest" news, is it?
I think the article dates back to 2014 or so.

Almost certainly they were going through a transition zone of lower grade ore - hence the drop in milled grade. The overall ore grade will increase as they enter the sulphide zone at PP, but this will always be patchy and subject to ups and downs. No deposit is ever uniform.

On this morning's Vast conference call, CEO Andrew Prelea commented that they were studying "old (diamond) claims" in Zimbabwe, and also BOD's and VAST's joint database, and that he hoped to have related news to release to market soon.
The Zimbabwean government have stated that they will issue a new policy for diamond mining in August.
Nothing definite there, I know. But the first hints that something may be moving n a favourable direction

Vigenere - for your information, vanadium price is spiking right now due to a lot of production currently being offline. It will drop back to more "normal" levels shortly. In short, don't bet the farm on it.

IMO, it's plain obvious that Kabwe is pulling JLP's share price down.
Doubt, uncertainty, dodgy dealings with extremely dubious entities (both BMR and Blue Square), and BMR's share sales are all factors in the decline. Someday this may change for the better, but that day is still some way off. For now I can only think of the old saying: "If you sleep with dogs you get fleas."

Excellent Q2 results.
Some details I particularly liked:
1. Huge production increases in both Romania and Zimbabwe, but also that there is still reason to believe that there are further increases down the line, due to the sulphides at Pickstone, and the new kit at Manaila.
2. Quality of concentrate at Manaila meets Mercuria standards. I.e. box ticked for drawdown of second tranche of loan for construction of new metallurgical plant at Manaila.
3. Drilling campaign for Zagra in Q4 - potentially huge resource definition to come there.
4. Eureka reopened by President (how's that for political clout!), work in progress.
And, of course, we still have the BP licence confirmation to come very soon! And perhaps news of more acquisitions in Zimbabwe as well!

I hope you're right about 120,000 ounces for this quarter!
Rightly or wrongly, my rule of thumb for Q2 is:
110,000 or less = further SP punishment
110,000 to 120,000 = neutral
120,000 plus = relief rally

My VERY rough assumption is that HUM will end up with something like a 30% free carry in an expanded Dugbe project.
As not a penny of the value of Dugbe is in HUM's current share price, if and when this JV deal is announced it should result in a pretty serious rerating - on top of the one we're due anyway for Yanfolila!
If anybody has done any calculations for a potential Dugbe JV, I'd love to have a look!

Yes, I agree. At this price JLP must be vulnerable to a takeover bid.
Northam, anybody?

If you put those extracts together, I think a fairly clear picture of Hummingbird's plans for the future of Dugbe emerges.
I assume that the "well-financed" joint venture partner is Endeavour, as all the evidence points that way. But, that said, Endeavour's name is not mentioned in Align's research.
I'm not sure when the JV deal for Dugbe will be concluded and announced, but my instinct says fairly soon, and certainly BEFORE the conclusion of the DFS later this year. I'm also not sure about the status of the MDA with Liberia - it has passed the Senate and the House of Representatives, but I can't find out if President George Weah has formally signed it into law yet.
Currently, Align have valued Dugbe at $10 per ounce based on the 4.2m ounces of gold in the ground. This, they themselves admit, is "ultra-pessimistic". A JV deal for Dugbe would unlock a huge amount of extra value for Hummingbird.

And, finally:
- The Dugbe Gold Project is Liberia’s largest gold deposit, with a resource of 4.2Moz. The map on page 11 really shows the scale of the future potential. Over the years, Hummingbird has spent a total of US$70 million on exploration and evaluation which has demonstrated the obvious potential for a total of 6-8Moz at something like 1.5g/t gold. As yet, drilling has not provided any high-grade core. So, due to the larger tonnage that needs to be mined and processed, the capital intensity could be significantly higher than at Yanfolila.
Back in 2016 the gold price was US$1,050/oz, which made returns at the Dugbe Gold Project appear to not be sufficiently attractive at that time. However, with gold now consistently trading around the US$1,300 mark, robust economics have already been demonstrated. Dugbe is a lower grade project than Yanfolila with a lower return. Shareholders naturally would not necessarily want management to commit funds from a project with an IRR of 60% (Yanfolila) to Dugbe, which has an IRR of 30%. Interested parties are being sought as farm in partners, as a potential alternative to developing it solo and who have the necessary financial strength to develop a project with the large potential scale that is being unveiled.
In 2018 the company is seeking to unlock the value at Dugbe. The MDA being signed into law is an important milestone and along with the optimised DFS represents an updated comprehensive study on which to successfully negotiate a joint-venture deal with a partner. The original 2Moz Dugbe Gold Project had a PEA for a 125,000 oz per annum mine. But, there is obvious scope for a far larger project which is expected to be outlined in the forthcoming optimised DFS. Current negotiations with well-financed joint-venture partners could fund this potentially large-scale project and, in the process, create further value for Hummingbird. There are plenty of development options and the scale of this project looks certain to be able to drive portfolio growth.

More on Dugbe:
- Detailed Feasibility Study (DFS)
Following the impressive results seen in the PEA, the company embarked on the far more comprehensive Detailed Feasibility Study, where work is still continuing today. The DFS is being managed by MDM Engineering Group which has appointed a number of well-known international consultants to cover certain key elements including: SRK Consulting (resource), Colley Mining (geotechnical studies) and AMEC (EISA - Environmental and Social Impact Assessment).
At present, the DFS is undergoing optimisation which involves a detailed analysis of the economic benefits of converting Measured and Indicated Resources beyond Tuzon into actual reserves. In addition, the improved cash flows that will result from scheduling low strip, shallow ore from other deposits not currently in Measured & Indicated Resources categories are being modelled. This includes bringing ore from Dugbe F into the first ten years of mine life. The project is focused on mining fresh rock, which needs a lot of power So a Hydro-Electric Prefeasibility Study (PFS) has been completed which really outlines the potential to reduce the all-important power costs.
- Mineral Development Agreement
In June 2018, the members of Liberia’s House of Representatives unanimously approved a Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) for Dugbe which will now be passed into law. This marks a big step forward as the agreement has a 25-year life with an option for an extension by mutual consent. Crucially, the MDA locks in all the fiscal agreements and so provides the necessary long-term framework and stabilisation of taxes and duties. These include an agreed royalty rate on gold production of 3% and an income tax rate of 25%, with credit for historic exploration expenditures.
The MDA also provides for a 50% reduction in fuel duty with a 75% reduction for the first five years of production, if the gold price is below US$1,500 per ounce. The agreement grants the Government of Liberia a free carried interest of 10% in the Dugbe Gold Project as well as the establishment of a Community Development Fund by the company. The MDA, together with the optimised DFS, provides the tools to successfully conclude negotiations with potential joint-venture partners.

I'm going to post a few extracts from Align Research about Dugbe in Liberia here. Remember that Align were fully briefed by Hummingbird before producing their report!
- The 4.2Moz Dugbe Gold Project has a PEA for a 125,000 oz per annum mine. But, there is obvious scope for a far larger project which is expected to be outlined in a forthcoming optimised DFS. Ongoing negotiations with well-financed joint-venture partners could fund the development through to production.
- Development project with a 4.2Moz resource & which represents the largest gold project in Liberia. A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) outlined a 125,000 oz per annum project with a 20-year mine life. However, there looks to be the potential for a 6-8Moz resource which would allow the development of a significantly larger project. The Detailed Feasibility Study from 2016 is currently being optimised and is expected to pave the way for a joint-venture partner to fund the development of the project.
- The company’s extensive licence area in eastern Liberia is seen as being one of the last remaining unexplored regions of the Birimian, & which has remained largely untouched due to the civil war. The team has focused its exploration activities on the greenstone contacts in the Birimian and made a series of highly significant gold discoveries. The Birimian is well known for being elephant country and it was completely unproven in Liberia before Hummingbird’s arrival. Here, there does seem to be the real potential for the company to open up a completely new gold district.

Hi Bandit!
I totally agree with your post. Focussing on the asset and not the CEO led me to BMR and cost me a reasonable amount of money (I've already taken my losses).
Really good CEOs on AIM are rare birds. I can only name two or three - Dan Betts at HUM, Martin Eales at RBW, and possibly Leon Coetzer at JLP. In contrast there are whole flocks of idlers, plodders, chancers, fantasists, scam artists, and outright fraudsters. AIM should be regulated much more tightly, but it isn't, so investors must beware!

Make that 4 RNSs possible this month.
Remember also that the Zimbabwean government is auctioning off various mining assets.
So at any moment there could be news of a share in another new (old, brownfield) mine in Zimbabwe.

Hi Rosewall!
Let's hope BMR shareholders would keep hold of their new JLP shares, if that's the way it does turn out.
In the long run I remain very positive about JLP. But Mike Surt is right; the long run is still some time away. And the short term could be rough. I can easily see the JLP share price dropping below 2p in the next few months.

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/cpt-company/hummingbird-resources/
Here's the link to the Align Research note again. You can download the full research from that page. It's well worth reading in its entirety.
Align give a value of 46.4p per share and a "Conviction Buy" rating to Hummingbird.
It's worth noting that this rating is (in their own words) "ultra-conservative". It's made up of three parts:
1. Value of Yanfolila - calculated with a 10% discount NPV, and based on the current mine plan. I.e. it doesn't include any of the extra resources (e.g. Gonka) which we all know are there. (Thus, the total comes out as a very pessimistic figure).
2. Value of Dugbe, calculated at a lowball $10 per ounce figure for the gold in the ground.
3. Value of 34% stake in Cora, calculated using Cora's share price, which is very low by peer group standards.
And, even so, the total estimated value of the company comes out as a 50% uplift over HUM's current share price!!!

For those amused by such absurdities, GGP's market cap is now 60m quid, compared to HUM's market cap of about 115m quid.
(Even more absurdly, GGP's market cap is now 7 times larger than CORA's, even though CORA is the superior gold explorer in every imaginable way).
Perhaps it's time the FCA cleaned up AIM, and stopped these blatant "pump and dump" share schemes?!?