Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I just want to reissue a challenge!
The quoted Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for Vast's investment in Baita Plai is 563%. (No, this figure isn't missing a decimal point, and it may actually be conservative).
My normal rule of thumb for mining projects is that a projected IRR of 20% means the mine won't get financed and built, 30% = 50/50, and 40% = probable, whilst anything over 50% = bonanza time.
So, can anybody name a mining investment anywhere with an IRR higher than 563%? Or, indeed, any kind of investment with an IRR this high (except drug smuggling)?

Current VAST market cap = @ 32m pounds.
1p share price = approx 50m pounds market cap.
That's still pretty cheap for a company with all Vast's assets. Just look at the economics of Baita Plai - it's a cash cow as mine, and worth nearly that much by itself.

Hi Hazrat!
I agree with what you say, but I'd add a few more positive comments as well:
1. Yes, defining a narrow vein / breccia resource at Kiyenzi to JORC standards will require lots of holes drilled close together. Total metres to be drilled might not be so high, though, as the holes will all be very shallow. Nonetheless, this will cost real money. IMO, it might be cheaper just to dig the stuff out!
2. I'm not sure about a raise or not. If the company hasn't reached breakeven on current mining operations in this quarter, though, I think it likely. Q2 results should be out shortly, together with the answer to that tease about a new mining area.
3. The drill holes aimed at the supposed carbonatite source of the rare earth veins all missed in the last drill campaign - presumably due to magnetic anomalies (magnetite?). (I.e. the aerial survey turned out to be useless). BUT, that said, the rare earth veins are coming from somewhere, and that somewhere pretty much must be a carbonatite pipe (or system of pipes). For me, it's highly likely that there is a great deal more rare earth resource (both high grade and low grade) still waiting to be discovered at Gakara.
4. This is still a non-Chinese producing rare earth mine with a blue chip off take agreement. That makes it a rare and potentially very valuable company, especially if the US-China trade war escalates further.
IMO, this dip in the SP is more of a buy moment than a sell moment - that is, as long as actual production is ramping up towards company targets and the company is at or near breakeven on current operations. Q2 results should be out in the next couple of weeks, so we'll see about that...

A big sell of 300,000 shares has now shown up, which is what caused the sharp drop.
It seems wrong to blame the management for not buying RBW shares. They own 40% odd of the company already, and Martin Eales has bought several times on the open market previously. They can't really demonstrate much more faith in RBW's future than that!
Anyway, this is a good buy back price for me!

Come on, Ricky!
Dan & Co. are a) almost certainly in a closed period, due to Dugbe negotiations, and b) don't earn this kind of money.
IMO, our "mystery buyer" has been buying shares by the bucketload since before the security update. I think they might be up to 10% of the company by now...

Anybody want to speculate on who the mystery buyer is?
My money is on Canadian goldie Endeavour (EDV).

Just looked at the share trades - all sells and yet no SP movement.
Somebody might think we have a large behind-the-scenes buyer with an open order! By my (very rough) count somebody has built up a very substantial stake in HUM over the last couple of months. I know that issuing TR-1s seems to have become optional recently, rather than compulsory, but I think it's high time the buyer revealed their identity.

The market-makers definitely gone long on this stock!
They're happy to buy as many shares as possible, but they really don't want to let more than a few go.
It tells its own story, really.

https://www.rough-polished.com/en/exclusive/111032.html

That's exactly what I mean! The market won't believe this mythical winged pig until it has been shot down and cut up and analysed in the name of science.
Then, when the existence of flying swine is finally and undeniably confirmed, the market will have to change its mind!

Well, if 9 months ago I'd met Nostradamus in the street, and he'd told me that Hummingbird's share price today would be 31p, I might have believed him. But I would have then assumed one of three things had happened:
Either 1. The gold price had crashed to $1000 per ounce;
or 2. Mali had descended into a vicious countrywide Syrian-style civil war;
or 3. The construction of the mine had gone horribly over-budget and over-schedule, the company had run out of cash, and had had to raise emergency equity at a heavy discount.
What's unbelievable to me is that everything has gone as well as could be hoped, or even a little better, and yet we are still trading at these levels. Whoever heard of a company with only $60m debt, and which will generate about $60m free cash flow this year, and yet which only has a market cap of approx. $140m?

Perhaps it's worth adding that the Net Present Value of $100m is roughly double Vast's present market capitalisation as well.
(But perhaps that isn't strictly relevant, as Vast is already hugely undervalued based on its existing assets, without considering Baita Plai).
IMO, this share is all about confidence now. The market has been waiting for three years for the BP licence. Until it is finally, officially, and completely undeniably stamped, signed, and issued, Vast will only get a limited amount of belief from investors. Then, who knows?

I just browsed through the old Baita Plai brochure again, and a couple of figures caught my eye. On the "Vast model" (which may even be conservative) the mine has an NPV of $100m (@10% discount), and an IRR (internal rate of return) of a truly absurd 563%.
Whilst we are waiting for the licence, can anybody (using figures from any mine project anywhere in the world) beat an IRR of 563%?

Of course the BP licence will have a big effect on the mid / long term share price of Vast!
BP will be a highly profitable mine for Vast, a true "cash cow" (6% copper grade equivalent, for God's sake; that's better than good!) It's the free cash flow that BP will generate that will fund the rapid growth of Vast in Romania.

Oh come off it, Downhill!
To call Centamin's management self-interested, lethargic, and incompetent is simply borne out by the facts. Truth is truth.
And, what we also know for sure, is that Centamin's management have no wish to engage honestly with shareholders.

Here's the link to the article dug up by the excellent Gold Panda:
frontpageafricaonline.com/politics/meet-angela-list-of-ghana-the-most-powerful-investor-in-weah-led-liberia/
A little wary, but not seriously worried about this, myself.

Hi Blackfisk!
No, I don't know if the court documents (re: the possible buyback) have been processed yet. But I'd guess not - It was "a few months" only a few weeks ago.
IMO, management would do well to announce asap that they are going to use up to 10% of this year's free cash flow (i.e. $6m or so) to fund a rolling buyback, paying up to a limit of 40p per share. That would snap up quite a few cheap shares, and also serve as an insurance policy against a lowball takeover of the company.
So, w'd be looking at 15% free cash flow spent on exploration / extending the life of mine at Yanfolila, 10% spent on the share buyback scheme, and $5m per quarter (i.e. about another 33% of fcf annually) to repay the debt principal to Coris Bank. That would still leave more than 40% of the free cash flow for acquisitions, etc.
Anybody agree with that?

Dear Border Terrier!
For the record, no, I am not agreeing with you.
And for God's sake, stop making everything about you. Narcissism is the sickness of our age.

Let me guess, Mr. Van Zyl. Your first name is Jonathan and you were born in 1970?
Am I right or am I right?

Hi Mr. Tibbles,
I've actually met some of the top management of Ariana socially. (I mix with all sorts, including the lowest!)
IMO, Ariana is a total "wouldn't touch it with a bargepole" stock. The board are simply enriching themselves at the expense of their hapless shareholders. It's been like this for more than 10 years!
If anybody does want to invest in a producing AIM-listed junior gold miner, why look any further than the excellently run and currently very underpriced Hummingbird Resources (HUM)?