Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Tom!
Well, for one, turning the company into a hybrid gold-lead-zinc mining company will lead to the company becoming substantially less appealing to investors; thereby depressing the share price yet further.
For instance:
1. As a gold only company, Hummingbird could be expected to be included (in due course) in various big ETFs (e.g. GDXJ), thereby boosting the share price. As a hybrid precious metals / base metals miner, no way.
2. Quite a lot of institutions also won't be interested in such a strange and difficult-to-analyse hybrid beast. Indeed, they may have internal rules forbidding them to invest in it. If they are already invested, they may be forced to sell up.
3. A lot of PIs have invested here as a way of gaining exposure to gold. Again, they may sell if Hummingbird mix their commodities.
All in all, I can't imagine a more effective way of suppressing the share price long term than chasing after the Bunker Hill deal. This is really basic stuff, and it beggars belief that Hummingbird's BOD would do this. And yet, here we are...

Hi Tom!
So the BOD's "strategy" isn't really a strategy at all? It's just to chase after any wild venture that takes their fancy, without informing us shareholders first, if possible. If that's so, it's truly p*ss poor.
Anyway, since that's what it is, I've got a couple of movie projects Hummingbird might be interested in. Very high potential ROCE, but they could easily bomb completely...

Hi Ronnie - many thanks for posting this link!

I agree that this share is performing terribly - that's obvious.
At this price, I am tempted to buy more, based on the fundamentals of Yanfolila. However, I'm resisting that temptation as management have refused to give clear and precise guidance on how they intend to employ the free cash flow from the mine. I would welcome spending on expanding and extending Yanfolila, and on bringing Dugbe to a state where a joint venture / outright sale can be concluded. I support the continued funding of Cora. I believe that - given the extremely low share price - a well-targeted share buyback could be very rewarding for existing shareholders. A dividend would also be well received.
However, I need to hear from management that they are NOT going to spunk all the cash away on (for example) buying a substantial stake in a lead-zinc mine in the U.S. That would simply destroy company value, not add to it.
And, in general, I need to believe that management understand that we - the shareholders - own the company, not them, and that they are not free to go wildly "off piste" and get involved in any crazy adventure that takes their fancy.
Is that really too much to ask?
If management can't make these reassurances, then a takeover (hostile or friendly) really is best for us shareholders. 45p should do it.
Are you reading this, Endeavour?

Hi Perry!
Predicting the gold price is way beyond my pay grade, but here is a good article on the current near record hedge fund short positioning on gold, and the likelihood of a short-covering relief rally:
https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/gold-shorts-near-record/
Since Hummingbird's AISC is below $800 per ounce, it's worth reminding ourselves that the company is still making $400 per ounce even at $1,200 gold!

Update on South African exploration projects - good news, I think...

Approx. results of trading from yesterday:
Volume @ 800,000 (= moderate)
Sells outnumbered buys by more than 10:1 (by my count) - again!
But bid price didn't move (and is still 30p this morning)!
Make of that what you will, but to me it all seems very strange. (And not a reason to sell, by the way).

Hi Jibbo!
I was going to say the same thing. Sells outnumbered buys by about 10:1 on Friday, and today it is sells all the way. Volume is not high, but it is reasonable (about 600,000 on Friday, about 200,000 so far today). Certainly, it should be enough to move the bid downwards in normal circumstances.
My inference is that "somebody" has a very large buy order open at about 31p. (I think it is only one "person" as seemingly there is no competition for shares). I also think that a large buyer (the same one?) has been "underwriting" the share price for at least a couple of months, first at about 33p (before the security update), and now at 31p. We haven't yet had a TR-1 (they seem optional these days), but all the same I believe that a very large stake in Hummingbird is being built up at the current bargain basement price.
The really interesting question for me is "who" is doing the buying.
Just a financial institution?
Or a fellow gold miner (e.g. Endeavour) building up a stake before launching a formal takeover bid?
If anybody has any clues to the answer, please share!

Hi Otho!
Possibly the 6K of unsold inventory is a mistake borne of reading the Q1 results in place of the Q2 results. There was about 6K of unsold inventory at the end of Q1, if I remember correctly.

Hi 1234567!
Yes, I agree with you. Management would do very well to issue a shareholders' letter addressing our concerns and outlining their strategic plan and financial forecasts as soon as possible.
Overall, let's give management six more months, and then, if they haven't delivered proper shareholder value or a takeover offer hasn't come in, let's issue a public letter calling for the sale of the company (as per Detour Gold recently).
And let's resist any side ventures taking Hummingbird into mining other commodities or turning Hummingbird into an investment company! Both moves would directly destroy shareholder value (see DropInMonkey's posts on this).

The RNS needs close reading. The deal is subject to financial closure - that's mentioned twice. That is, it's nothing yet. I suspect that the German side of the deal actually have to now go and raise the money from investors before the deal is finalised. So, I'm not getting excited yet.

A few last thoughts:
1) I also think Rainbow will achieve their target run rate by December; though it will cost them much blood, sweat, and toil to do so.
2) Management here seem to me to be good - an all important consideration for me. They also own more than 40% of the shares, so their interests are aligned with ours.
3) I'm not 100% sure there will be a placing. Management had an excellent chance to do a placing after the drill results, when the share price was still at 18p to 20p, and they passed on the opportunity - presumably because they felt they could get by without one. What has changed since then?

Hi Hazrat and all!
We shouldn't forget how much Rainbow have achieved in a short period of time. Nine months ago I was concerned that "country risk" would be a serious issue - but Rainbow have proven that they can successfully operate in Burundi and export their rare earth concentrate. They have also proven that they can sell their concentrate (via Thyseenkrupp) - seemingly as much as they can produce - and get paid for it.
I don't know about others here, but I always expected the start of production to be rough. 22km of unpaved roads to traverse in hilly terrain, the rainy season, a workforce who'd never had full-time jobs before, shortages of many basic goods in Burundi, including fuel... this was always going to be hellish.
Yes, production now needs to ramp up and achieve profitability. Yes, the drilling results weren't as good as we'd hoped (though not awful, either). But we shouldn't forget that a foundation has been laid.
Right now, I don't feel the need to rush buying these shares short term. Little company news is due for some time and there is the possibility an equity raise is required. Short of a takeover bid or China "weaponising" rare earths in its trade war with the US, it's hard to see what would drive a significant move up in share price short term.
But, medium term, I'll be back.

Hi Tom!
So, in short, they were just having a punt on a random mining project that took their fancy with our money!
I'd suggest Dan & Co. really need to study their duties (as PLC directors) to their shareholders. They are not an investment company, but "a West African gold developer, explorer, and producer".
If I were an institutional investor, I'd be rolling my eyes at this explanation and lowering my targets/ratings for the company appropriately. How can they get this simple thing so badly wrong?

I absolutely agree with Otho's post.
In the end, this isn't really about the merits (or not) of Bunker Hill.
The key issue is about whether we (as shareholders) can trust the board with our money. Will they stick to the agreed business plan? Will they provide clear guidance of how the free cash flow generated will be spent? Will they do all they can to attract new investors to the company and to support the share price? Will they return cash to us, whether as dividends or via share buybacks?
Or do the board of directors think that we investors are like mushrooms - to be kept in the dark and fed ****?
I know what I think.

I'm still a long term optimist about this company, and I'm looking for an entry point to buy back the shares I sold a few months ago. But this is not that moment. I figure that cash must be getting low and that an equity raise will be announced shortly. So, for me, this is a "wait and see".

I never like seeing a share sink like this ahead of results. I always get the feeling that somebody knows more than I do, and that it's not good news.
I really hope I'm wrong!!!

In that oh so revealing conference call Dan Betts made it clear that the current $1.5m investment was made to enable Bunker Hill to pay off some urgent debts (to the EPA), and that Hummingbird's due diligence was still going on.
I.e. the implication is that Hummingbird intend to make further investments into Bunker Hill, if the due diligence checks out.
Bunker Hill needs $90m finance as a project, so we could be looking at quite a large sum.
Dan Betts also made it clear that he hadn't wanted to reveal this initial investment, at this stage, but that the Nomad had forced him to disclose.

Hi Lobon!
You're not getting my point.
You may be right, or partly right, technically speaking. Modern lead / zinc mining may or may not be safe, in the pure ethereal abstract.
But, legally, down here in the messy real world, I'd put money on the company losing its case in an American courtroom. You underestimate how many hungry and ambitious lawyers there are in America, and how selectively facts can be manipulated to make a case. And how emotive lead poisoning would be to a jury. And, to top it all, the permission to reopen the mine from the EPA was signed by a Trump appointee who has since had to resign in disgrace due to his personal corruption. That's just a gift from heaven to a skilled advocate.
IMO, it's pure foolishness to pursue this project. This just isn't going to end well (except for the lawyers, of course, who'll make an absolute killing).
Why the company can't stick to what it knows - gold mining in West Africa - is beyond me. Directors of a public company can't just change their company's business plan like this, they have legal responsibilities to the shareholders.
All in all, a takeover of Hummingbird is in all our best interests now. May it come soon!

Hi Mr. Tibbs!
I think I've mentioned before that I spent nearly 20 years working in Russia in the 90s and 00s.
It was well-known there that Trump was operating off Russian oligarch money ever since his bankruptcies. And, of course, the KGB would have built a substantial file on such a person; that goes without saying.
I imagine (in due course) every word of the famous Steele dossier will turn out to be true. He did run MI6's Russia desk so we can assume he knows his onions (or onion domes).
What is so disappointing to me is that the American press did not investigate this properly before the elections, and even now are very timid on this subject.
Any man with Trump's past will be a creature of Putin's. It's that simple.
Sorry to post off-topic!