Member Info for TigerByTheTail

p.s. I don't know why I'm saying that shorting Vast would crazy. I've got about 80% (but not 100%) of the stake that I want here, so I should probably be egging on any would-be shorters!

Hi Badgernator!
IMO, those trades could be profitable, if you had absolutely solid 100% certain sure information about when the license was to be stamped and issued - i.e. you, your family, or your closest friend worked at ANRM. (Yes, I do think it would be technically possible to borrow Vast shares to sell them short, though it might be expensive).
Of course, you'd run the risk of other positive news being issued in the meantime and blowing up your trade, such as good Blueberry drill results, Eureka reopening progress, or Marange developments. But, maybe if you had really, really solid info on the issuing of the license, you'd still make the trade.

It would be crazy to short Vast, especially if you were leveraged - the BP licence could drop any moment and you'd be burnt to a crisp. Such a trade would be a lot of risk for very little potential gain.
I can think of lots of shares on AIM that totally deserve to be shorted, if that's your idea of fun. But not Vast.

The investor who bought nearly 3% of the company at .645p yesterday is probably mildly amused rather than anxious right now. He/she/they are either an institution or a HNWI, and I'm confident that they are here for the long term. They've probably had the benefit of a personal briefing from AP as well, so they understand (better than us, it would seem) the huge potential of Marange, in particular.

Hi RedBlackOrRed!
Forming a concert party to influence the price of a share is a crime. Google it! You and your friends have been very naughty boys.
In your position, I'd delete your account here and your Twitter account, delete the linked e-mail accounts, wipe my computer clean of fingerprints, smash its hard drive with a hammer, dump the bits at the town dump, and move abroad. That should leave you in the clear.

Sorry, RedBlackOrRed, you are crudely manipulating facts and adding supposition to suit your agenda.
Your behaviour is dishonest, despicable, and indeed probably illegal - by your own account. The FCA would do a good thing by taking one Twitter group and prosecuting its members to make an example. How is your behaviour not forming a concert party? Oh well, we live in hope!

I know Vast i(in general) is somewhat manic depressive as shares go, but I feel things are getting a little hysterical here.
1. BP licence - Vast have the all important ministerial sign off, the corrected papers are in to ANRM, and there is a 30 day legal limit for their stamp. That is all we know; the rest is supposition.
2. Both Romania and Zimbabwe are frontier markets. They are difficult places to work. That is at once part of their appeal and their major drawback. Where else could you buy a mines like Baita Plai or Eureka for little more than a song? (Hint: The IRR of BP is around 550%; you only get that kind of profitability in developed countries by inventing something completely new or smuggling something very illegal).
3. The Marange diamonds opening is a once in a lifetime opportunity. I congratulate AP for recognising this. With such chances you do all you can to keep as much as them as possible, no matter how uncomfortable it may be in the short term. If Vast can progress and complete this deal IMO this share is a five or ten bagger based on it alone.

RedBlackOrRed - you do understand how despicable an dishonest your behaviour is here, don't you? By your own admission you're just part of an organised decamping group seeking a lower entry point. That's probably even illegal - it's called forming a concert party...

Two possibilities, Badgernator:
1) All profit from Pickstone Peerless is being eaten up by the ongoing costs of reopening Eureka and the already paid costs of getting to where we are with Marange.
2) Some of the Marange due diligence costs (e.g. possible payment to Botswana Diamonds???) need to be paid outside Zimbabwe, and Vast can't get the money out of the country.
Personally I am very glad that the board have NOT brought in a financial partner for this project at this stage, and are instead keeping it all for us.

So...
The share price is now LOWER than before the news broke about Marange. OK, right, that makes sense. A few hundred million's worth of easy-to-mine alluvial diamonds is clearly not good.
And an institution / High New Worth Individual paid 0.645p per share to buy nearly 3% of the company, and this is somehow bad news as well?
IMO, share price has been manipulated down today by organised deramping. Nothing more.

Mistimed it again - whilst I was typing my last post I had a ten minute window to buy under 0.61p and missed it. Not my day.
I don't think I'll get another chance. And I don't think our friendly house troll RBR will be buying in the 0.5s, either. Not really too upset about that!

Well, I mistimed my first buy today - didn't believe it could drop below 0.63p.
I'll add more if I can get 0.61p to buy.
What really has changed today? A little money has been raised at no discount to market price (then) in order to go after the diamonds asap. I'm happy with that!

Hi BillB!
Love the maths. It really does show how undervalued this share is.
Two of the assets are producing as well right now. And three more (BP, Eureka, and the biggie Marange) should be making money by this time next year.

I think the important thing is that market cap here is still less than 36m quid - which is pretty ridiculous when you stop and think about it.
I'd reckon that was about fair value for the Zimbabwe assets alone, WITHOUT THE DIAMONDS.
I'd reckon the Romanian assets were worth more than the Zimbabwean assets, even WITHOUT THE BAITA PLAI LICENCE.
Now add in the potential value of the diamonds, even at a huge discount rate, and the value of the cash cow Baita Plai, even at a decent discount.
I'm not going to bother to give the total value I come up with, because it is so much higher than the current market cap. Anyway, a nice and steady rise of a few % each day / week will do me.

It's worth adding that we're talking about the alluvial mining of a highly diamondiferous area - i.e. it is highly profitable, per se.
The new Zimbabwe government have already announced that there will be a new diamond policy. This was trailed for this month, but it might come a few weeks late due to election delays. I assume Vast already have an idea about what it will be, and that the final profit share will be the 75% / 25% split mentioned in the RNS.
All IMO, and DYOR.

Listened to the podcast...
First up, AP sounds like a man who is very confident that the BP licence is on its way. I hope he's right.
Secondly, it's striking that he is now quite happy to talk about Marange and Vast's historic claims. Compare this to how circumspect he was only a few weeks ago. This being PR, not news, some of the most interesting questions weren't asked: such as, are Vast hoping to work with other community trusts on other Marange license areas? I suppose that will be revealed over the next few months.
Thirdly, there seems to be no question that the current licence area is diamondiferous. This isn't about prospecting it, it's about mining.
Fourthly, we must be due some drill results from Blueberry in the next few days. Let's hope they are as good as they have been trailed to be.

I'm one of those with a little side bet on Botswana Diamonds, as well as my main holding in Vast. As BOD are a small company their share price could easily rocket on any positive news involving Marange. Presumably, the due diligence period quoted in the current "Heritage" RNS involves some preparatory exploration work, so hopefully we will get some news on that front in the next couple of onths.
All in all, I believe that this is very much only the beginning for Vast's and BOD's involvement in the Marange diamond fields. I believe that the new Zimbabwean government will award Marange mining licenses to a number of local community owned trusts, who will need a mining partner to exploit their assets. Vast - as the company that discovered the fields, which were then seized by Mugabe, and as an unsanctioned local company with an unsullied reputation - are in a prime position to become this mining partner.
In short, this could be huge!

I'm one of those with a little side bet on Botswana Diamonds, as well as my main holding here. As BOD are a small company their share price could easily rocket on any positive news involving Marange. Presumably, the due diligence period quoted in the current "Heritage" RNS involves some preparatory exploration work, so hopefully we will get some news on that front in the next couple of months.
All in all, I believe that this is very much only the beginning for Vast's (and BOD's) involvement in the Marange diamond fields. I believe that the new Zimbabwean government will award Marange mining licenses to a number of local community owned trusts, who will need a mining partner to exploit their assets. Vast - as the company that discovered the fields, (which were then seized by Mugabe), and as an unsanctioned local company with an unsullied reputation - are in a prime position to become this mining partner.
In short, this really could be huge!

Overall, I'm very happy with today's news - Vast is back in the Marange diamond business, and I'm sure there are still a lot more very interesting developments to come.
I'm not so happy with the share price reaction, of course. Perhaps it's hard to understand how big this news could be for Vast without doing a lot of research. Hopefully, the share price will continue to rise over the next few days. Certainly, a market cap of 33m quid for Vast is just ridiculous now, even without the BP licence.

I agree that this deal could be immensely valuable to Vast.
But it's not an easy deal for the market to understand. Hopefully Andrew Prelea will explain it in more detail (as much as he can) in the podcast tomorrow. We might get a better SP reaction then.
IMO, there is clearly more to come as well. I'm looking forward to the government announcing their new diamond policy in the next few weeks (it was announced as coming in August, but it might be a bit late, given the kerfuffle over the elections).