Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Blackfisk! I'd have mixed feelings about taking 45p, personally. But it doesn't matter too much what I think is a fair price. I'm only a PI with a relatively small stake (about 0.12%) in HUM. What matters here is the price the big institutional shareholders would be willing to accept. Over the last few months they have shown themselves only too willing to sell up cheaply, so I think a instant 50% profit might well do the trick for them. I hope I'm lowballing, and we can get the 75% - 100% premium Tom is looking for. I'd certainly be happy with an appropriately priced cash + EDV share offer. EDV is a fine company.

Hi Kadavul! There would, of course, be a takeover premium, even in the event of an all-share offer by EDV (or anybody else). There are precise rules for valuing the company being taken over (Rule 3, I believe), to ensure that its shareholders are not cheated. Perhaps others can inform on how these work exactly. But, as a general rule, I believe we can expect a minimum 30% premium, and hopefully something more like 50%.

BTW, there is one final piece of the puzzle to be fitted in here: According to my trusty source the Liberian Observer, the MDA for Dugbe was ratified by both the Senate and the House of Representatives last week. However, it has seemingly not received the signature of President George Weah to turn it into law - yet. This is a little odd as the road building measures that went through Congress with it have already been signed into law. Could it be that Hummingbird still have to demonstrate that they have a financed plan to develop Dugbe to President Weah before he will sign off the MDA? Could it be that the (very probable) meeting with Endeavour this week in London is linked to that financing? Just speculating...

I actually think JLP's share price would rally if the company walked away from BMR and Kabwe.

Hi Tom! I suppose where we disagree is how much HUM's management can be "persuaded" into agreeing to a fairly cheap takeover. Firstly, they can be enticed with positions at the expanded Endeavour. Dan Betts has proved himself to be highly competent; why not give him a seat on the board and a route to the top job? Similarly, the other key members of the Hummingbird team. Secondly, I question how much loyalty HUM's management will receive from their major shareholders (and from PIs). The share price is very very low, and it has been in a downtrend for seven months now. If an offer is made, even informally, Dan Betts has to consult with the major shareholders, and the results may surprise him, and not in a pleasant way. Short term thinking normal triumphs over long term thinking in these cases! Management, of course, hold very few shares themselves, so that doesn't help their position. You may well be right, and any tie up will be less than a full takeover, and more like a strategic partnership. (By the way, who has been buying all those shares over the last month or so? We still don't have a TR-1). It could also be that I've lowballed the takeout price, and the board will manage to negotiate a better one. But I'm still fairly confident that "summat's up."

Just to add my voice - enjoy your break, Sotolo! May it be short and whenever you're ready, you are very welcome back. This board operates far better when all are free to speak. Nothing we say here will affect CEY's share price; CEY is far too big for that. But it can help us to make at least halfway decent investment decisions.

Seriously, has the collective wisdom of this board just rumbled what is going on behind the scenes? I suggested an Endeavour takeover a few weeks back as an hypothesis - I wasn't sure about it myself. Now it's starting to add up. I'm not buying any more HUM shares on the back of this theory; I'm heavily invested here already. And i'm not worried if this theory is wrong; any company that produces cash like Hummingbird will come right in the end. But I do want to find out if we've called this right! Tom - I don't think they can be talking about Sanankoro. It's too early for that conversation; a lot more drilling needs to happen first. They could well be talking about Dugbe. But is it worth buying Dugbe / a share of Dugbe when, for relatively little more money, you could buy HUM outright?

Hi DropInMonkey! Maybe you're right, and it's not that obvious. But don't you think it's extraordinary that the CEO of Canadian company Endeavour happens to turn up at a Hummingbird social event in London?!? Surely, that indicates that the two companies are talking? And if they are talking, then what about?

- So, Doctor Watson, let us have a cold, hard look at the facts of the case: 1. Longstanding, friendly links between HUM and Endeavour (see Twitter, social media); 2. Endeavour run neighbouring mine in Mali, as well as other mines of similar scale across West Africa, and have a stated policy to grow both production and resources; 3. HUM need experienced well-financed partner (e.g. Endeavour) to develop Dugbe; 4. Rick Rule (for no apparent reason) praises Dan Betts as "seven foot tall" CEO. Sprott (Rick Rule's company) also has close links to fellow Canadian company Endeavour; 5. HUM clearly in no hurry to take even basic measures (i.e. report positive news) to improve share price, let alone list on TSX; 6. Former COO of Endeavour recently appointed to HUM board (to check out HUM and to help smooth the deal's progress, perhaps?); 7. Endeavour CEO buys first ever gold from Yanfolila for 5K? A nice souvenir if he is going to buy the whole mine soon. - But, Holmes, that doesn't prove anything at all. Those facts could be just coincidence! - Indeed, Watson. They could be. But I think not.

Hi Sandy! Yes, I give credit to Vast for not leaking - unlike some companies on AIM. But can you really be sure that information wouldn't leak from the Romanian government? There are a lot of underpaid bureaucrats who are going to know about the BP licence before it is publicly announced, and the information is highly valuable commercially. Can you be sure that something wouldn't leak from there? Ditto, the Zimbabwean government.

Hi Frank! Yes, when you start to dig, you realise quite how deep the links are between Hummingbird and Endeavour. IMO, they'll offer Dan Betts a place on the Endeavour board, with a view to making him their CEO in due course, at the same time as they make the takeover offer. Everybody wins. If we're running a takeover sweepstakes, this is my bet: July - 45p - Endeavour. (BTW, the idea that HUM are too small to be taken out is ******. Yanfolila is plenty big enough (and profitable enough) to justify a takeover, even without considering Dugbe and Cora).

Anybody have any theories? Yes, Vast was way, way, way underpriced, but why this sudden SP movement? Leak? (And if so, a leak of which news? BP licence? Diamonds?) Simply a huge buyer? Or?

Hi Frank! Yep, HUM are currently an absurdly cheap takeover at this share price / market cap. Any buyer (presumably a goldie with operations in West Africa which is looking to add production ounces) doesn't even need to stump up any real money to do it - a few years' cash flows from Yanfolila are good enough to repay the finance required for the takeover. It's just a question of the buyer having good enough credit to borrow the upfront at normal commercial rates. Somebody really should point this out to Dan Betts. If he can't move HUM's share price up, then the market will take the company out of his hands. That's just how markets operate.

Carla (AKA Baron Day Trading???) is back from her (his) hols in the sun!

Yes, I bought a few BOD as a side bet to my main holding in VAST. If something comes off with diamonds in Zimbabwe, then BOD will rocket upwards, due to its current tiny market cap. If nothing comes off, then BOD will stay at much the same level, thanks to its projects in Botswana and SA. So, IMO, I'm risking losing the spread difference in return for a chance of a multi bagger return. That said, my BOD stake is ten times smaller than my VAST one...

This is a copy of a post by Gold Panda on the ADVFN board: www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Announcements/CAPD-2018-06-West-Africa-Update-Website_Final-20180618.pdf Hummingbird Resources, Mali - Capital Drilling has been awarded a delineation drilling contract at the Yanfolila Gold Mine in Mali. The contract will utilise one reverse circulation (RC) rig and three rigs for diamond core drilling and will be carried out over H2 2018, with operations commencing in July 2018.

The time is right for more merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the African gold industry, according to analysts at RFC Ambrian. RFC Ambrian sees the most potential for merger activity in the group of single African mine gold producers, with many of these companies having ambitious plans to grow their businesses. The analysts said key companies among this group are: Centamin PLC (LON:CEE), Resolute Mining Ltd (LON:RSG), Asanko Gold (LON:AKG) and Teranga Gold (LON:TGZ) http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/199047/rfc-ambrian-says-time-is-right-for-ma-activity-in-african-gold-industry-199047.html

It's worth saying that POG in sterling is still 965 - very reasonable. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the dollar has seriously broken out to the upside.

Hi Otho! The gold miner in Mali still has my confidence; even if the share price is ridiculously low. Sooner or later, the market will stop ignoring the amount of free cash flow Yanfolila is generating. It has to. As for the Spanish uranium miner, I've sold up. IMO, they have overhyped their prospects and they are unlikely to get permission to build the mine anytime soon. The local protest movement (Stop Uranio) is stronger than I allowed for, and close to the new government in Madrid. FWIW, I still think uranium is an interesting commodity, so I'm looking at other miners. Perhaps I'll keep it simple and just buy Cameco. Rainbow, it must be admitted, is something of a punt as an investment. It can't be easy operating in Burundi, where even sourcing a spare truck tyre can turn into a serious problem. So, I'm expecting a fair amount of "production hell" over the next few months. And, for now, we don't have any figures on the mineral resource and the expected life of mine. But, rare earths are being mined, shipped, and sold, and the resource upside could be very large. So, I'm happy to hold here.

BTW, it's worth noting that one of the Liberian road construction loans approved by the President will go to building an all-weather paved road to Sinoe County, where Dugbe is located, so it directly benefits Hummingbird. The road should be finished within the three years. Now, if only the World Bank would come up with the money to build the proposed hydro-electric power station, then we would really be making progress...