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First sensible valuation ive seen from an analyst on hoc, they always seemingly just add a couple % points from whatever the current share price is. Altho its hard to give him credit for a £6.10 "price target" when his "price target" last month was £3.70.

In other words the costs would have been the same if they sold every ounce (only less lovely revenue)

Oneb (with no anamosity i'll correct you haha) there was no aditional cost at san jose. The increaces in working capital is simply them not selling a portion of the gold and silver dore they produce. The production costs are the production costs, whether you sell everything you produce or not.

If we are to assume the gold price is up from a q3 average of 3200 to current spot (as a guess for average at which they may sell down the inventory) 4150. Thats a 1.297 multiple on the revenue we would have gotten. If you do the same for the exchange rate of the argentine peso vrs the usd, averge q3 vrs now (again depends when they decide to sell down the inventory just for the sake of getting a sense of the nunbers i'll use current) 0.0008/0.00068 witch is a multiple of 1.176.

When taken together thats 1.176 and 1.297 = 1.525x

Increase in inventory (i'll assume its pretty much all san jose) 5kr gold and 200k silver (cba so will just use 83:1).

So (5k+(200k/83)) * 0.525 *3200= $12.45m of additional revenue simply by selling a portion of produce gold 2months later.

In todays special ed

Teacher: Are the fractions 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3 equal?

Sotolo: No ThE sEcOnD oNe iS BigGeSt

Teacher: facepalm

Teacher: If you thought there was a 33% chance gold would decrease for years; a 33% chance gold would drop much lower and not return to today's price for a year; a 33% chance there is a short fall in the price of gold from current spot. Would it be rational to buy a gold miner today?

*Teacher looks defeatedly at sotolo whacking his head on table and hands waving eratically

Sotolo: YeS bUy ToDaY, sEnTeMeNtAl pUrChAsE!

I think your 2cents is about right.

Worth noting that aisc of $2000 is for 2025 and is fairly heavily skewed by a terrible yr for mara. Hopefully they provide future aisc projections for the next 4yrs like they did in 22/23. For what its worth the 2022 projection for 25 was 1300-1400 and for 2026 was 1100-1200. With the hint that they'd bring it down further 2027 onwards with the likes of low cost royrapata coming online. I wonder where it will be at in 2028 with 3yrs more inflation but mara back at full production and low cost monte + royropata bringing average down.

Sorry, i don't follow?

I think prices fluctuate and people speculate. Gold was up a lot then dropped a lot yesterday but still it the same price as it was at the start of last week (which at the time was an all time high).

My point is there are reason as to why thing are of value, some the reason I can understand some i cant but I can atleast recognise the cause and effect relarionship. But looking at patterns on grapth of historic price date tells you more than the history of the price data, how???. I had a damn clever maths teacher in school who could do lots of clever maths on graphs but she wasnt rich. So many folks out there tried their hand at technical analysis, yet has anyone actually (verifiably) made any real money. I could list a lot of wealthy investors, heck i could list wealthy (not as wealthy as first list) financial speculators (quantitative analysis, etc).

Outside of self forfulling prophecies idk how a graph of past price tells you what the future price will be.

What? Historic price data shows you.... wait for it.... historical price data. Forbes list hasnt got any tealeaf readers on it.

As for "dangers of war have subsided", i hope you are right but i think your wrong. Venezula, iran, afghan-pakistan, india-pakistan, thailand-cambodia, russian esculation, taiwan esculation. I dont think the next couple of years will be relatively all that peaceful.

Roughly 5k gold and 200k silver in terms of more produced than sold. As they say its most likely from san jose so attributable to us we can probably expect half the gain but still a lucky/smart deviation from standard practise of selling all inventory.

I dont think its cost in argentina, its a build up in inventory (unsold gold and silver) as gold and silver "is priced in usd" so to speak and if they expect a weak domestic currency holding off selling is wise. (Their currency has already fallen off from q3 average vrs todays rate, so it likely has paid off well on currency terms. But most importantly in has paid of significantly in pm prices terms)

Inmaculada grades low, altho they did say they would target lower grades for the sake of life of mine as h1 was running ahead of guidance. (Not sure why they plan like this as site has loads of reserves and is very large with more to be discovered)

As for the noticiable difference between ounce produced vrs sold, it doesn't make the net debt and cash on hand good but given where gold and silver prices have risen to vrs where they were in q3 its largely a very good thing. Reason for doing so wasnt as they predicted this spike in prices rather they suspect argentine currency to get debased as they believe Milei's party will lose seats in upcoming election

Report usually 7am, the call is at 2:30

I was able to sell my first two tranches of hoc last week. Have so far today brought back around 65% of what i sold. Anyway my guesses for tomorrow

Attributable gold: 52k

Attributable silver: 2050k

Biggest question marks over MR, its dismal guidance of 11.58k over h2 with the 2nd filter not coming online (at partial capacity) until oct/nov (from memory). So by that logic I should be expecting less than 6k. However, I still find that guidance to be very hard to believe. With landin claiming personal responsibility for overseeing MR recovery i hope its a case of setting himself homework to easily exceed.

£4, I'm definitely not ticker watching 😉

Go on reddingtonr, share your numbers. How did you get to a fair value of £2.135b? curious as to how you have such a low valuation. Even with gold and silver averaging, for the next 7yrs, 15% below the December 25 futures, I still have a higher valuation than that. (and thats with me leaning conservative on ever assumption within my model)

Tbh i suspect taco is largely expected, atleast in as much as most probably believe that extra 100% will be very short-lived or not even implemented. So even if trump claims "a deal" it most likely will ultimately be an escalation in the trade war from where they were at the beginning of last week

I reckon hoc was already on for a good week next week, and a trade war escalation surely doesn't hurt 😉.

I pledge to refrain from eating tacos 🌮 for as long as orange man holds out on the additional 100% on china.

Well, as counterintuitive as this week's fluctuations have been on hoc's sp. At least it (most likely) lines us up for a nice paper gain across next week

Can't say im all that worried about the impeachment. As for Hoch specifically, they are a source of tax for the government a substantial employer in an extremely poor area of peru. Inmaculada already has a 20yr permit. So I can't see any incentive for adverse actions against Hochschild's operations. I don't imagine it will make any difference for royropata permit approval either.

As for the wider picture, peru's currency remain one of the most stable in the region alongside Chile's, paired with stable low inflation. The markets don't seem to be concerned with peru as a whole and as far as I know most of the protests are against corruption in lima.

I wonder how many ounces of silver are on planes flying to london, so volatile any arbitrage could be surpassed twice over by the time it lands.