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Also i think volcan is sitting on the balance sheet at $70m. I'd be pretty disappointed if it was offloaded anything close to that.

Obviously i dont have much confidence on how much it would go for as early stage development sites require a lot of diligence and expertise i dont have. So i reckon it could go for anything between 50-350m.

Hoch themselves purchased the site back in 2012 for just over $100m when gold was around $1750 and we've been told some "de-risking work" has been done in meantime.

A takeover bid? I doubt it. E Hochschild wont want to sell and it would be a very large purchase, so naturally low odds based on number of potential buyers of that size out there imo.

I think Volcan will be listed or sold in coming weeks/months. I hope hoch decide to keep as large a slice as possible rather than sell it off for cash. As cash from operations should be enough to service/pay down debt whilst also funding royropata and even monte.

Would be nice to have something with a large potential not directly controlled by Hoc 😉

£1.5b valuation is very hard to justify when h1 has an after tax profit of $60m. H2 should be a fair bit higher, with an average gold price likely atleast 20% higher than h1 and higher san jose production outweighing the measly 12k h2 MR vrs 28.4k h1 (positives being about 3x the magnitude of the negative).

So a conservative 2025 $150m after tax profit with two mines expected within (1-3 years) that will likely do over 250k additional ounces between them. So £1.5b or $2b valuation leaves room for plenty of future management fck ups, providing precious metal prices hold steady. Of couse if management are able execute then a £3b or $4b valuation is justifiable.

Oh boy 2m, thanks for posting

I dont see a 2.78 trade, might be a misprint.

*Sorry meant to type *"after tax" earnings of £237m

Mara rosa production for 2024:

Q3 - 23.75k

Q4 - 25.53k

So clearly before damage the filters must have been operating near capacity for a while.

On a side note, an expected PE for 2026 of 6.3x (give valuation on 19th august). Would come to an after earnings of £237m or $320m. Decent but im hoping thats with conservative precious metal prices. And thats with one mid sized 100k mine and what should be atleast 150k mine planned in 2-3yrs that wont contribute to 2026 earnings.

E landin end the call with "can expect some surprises in 2026" obviously meant in a "good surprises" way, but gold and silver price alone are doing all the heavy lifting. If they just meet guidance our valuation would surely be far significantly higher. We dont need good surprises. Execute on inmac at 200k and MR at 100k with costs that are under our control from rising. And even the most aggressive investors will be happy with their returns.

Still at a lost as to how h2 guidance for MR is below h1 and by a lot. Gone from the belief from old plant management that filters wont ever work to certainty they will. They 2 operational filters are meeting humidity level but clearly cant be running close to capacity. As tailings are the only problem and therefor if the 2 alone were operating at capacity we'd expect 50k minus the down time in july. And with all 4 operating for Q4. That quater alone would amount to 25k. So why the low 11.6k?

Canaccord Genuity reiterating £3.65 price target today?

I get the financal results were in line with what was expected. But, always seemed analysts valuations were so heavily tied to short term profitability. Where they expecting the terrible mara rosa guidance? Or do they just account for Mara rosa 2025 production being pretty insignificant in the long run, like long-term holders should value the business?

Second thing today that i can't make sense of. Atleast its not as upsetting as the first 🤣

Almsot like they purchasing long lead time ppe for the two large mines they are building over next 1-3yrs. Do you know what the D stands for in EBITDA? We're a gold miner there is a fair bit of the D

Where is the uncertainty on life of mine? We have very good reserves. If san jose costs rise long term will impact life of mine. Inmca will go for ages and royropata has massive reserves at high grades to.

Also guidance for 2025 isnt "over" 2k its midpoint is 2k atleast it will make the back of the napkin maths easier for some.

Inmac inline with starting aisc and E landin expecting to achive 1300-1400 aisc at MR long term (aka 100k ounces).

First of apologies to burt and sotolo, you were right and i was wrong by a distance on mr 2025 production. I still don't understand even remotely the mr guidance reconciling with the information we have. If you could be so good to actually explain with reason how they are expecting to produce so little at MR given we have been told tailings are the only problem remaining. Two operational and the remaining two back in October?

Inmac aisc has remained unchanged. The financials were always going to be good. Ultimately its still a silly valuation. Hoc will likely do atleast $115m after tax profits this year. With major growth over next 1-3yrs. And with MR going back to 100k (altho again h2 guidance is mind blowing, so going forward im gonna model MR as an 80k mine until they convince me otherwise). Still not very substantial overall.

I've submitted two questions.

One about volcan SPAC and another about royropata production (as I'd be amazed if the production doesn't end up being significantly more than the 100k figure given when first discovered.

Thanks mike! Before clicking link i assumed it was just the half year results on 27th. Thanks for sharing as was unaware of the retial investor presentation, might have missed it if wasn't for you, many thanks.

Damn! thank god for isa's.

95% of my wealth is in isa's and 5% in sipp, still amazed that I was unaware of the change for so long. Makes the whole millionaire emigration numbers look even more understandable. For 2024, Uk was only behind 1.4b-populated-authoritarian China in terms of net millionaire migration.

Np 😊. As for whats coming downing the line for MR in 2-3yrs, E landin didn't directly comment on future (post 2025) production but he did hint it would be back at the 100k level. If my memory is correct he said something along the lines of "We are doing everything in our power to go back to $1300- $1400 as planned". Considering before issues this year the aisc projection was $1330 for MR, then along with inflation the only way they are likely to achive the 1300-1400 aisc is by producing around 100k. He did at somepoint on the call say that the long term plan hasnt changed for MR (mine higher grade, store lower grade for first 4 yrs and then use the low grade to complement newly discovered higher grades).

Dispite what some clowns on here might want you to believe MR problems aren't the end of the world. On top of this in the long run MR isnt even in the top 3 mines on Hoc's book right now and only half as important as each of the top 2.

I've never used trading 212. They may offer some help as to what cap gains you are due to pay but ultimately nasty tax man will hold you responsible. Obviously try to utilise isa accounts if you can. Outside of tax sheltered accounts any gains over 3k is subject to capgains tax (10%up to basic rate then 20% at higher tax rate).

The whole no dealing fee, likely mean the prices your being quoted aren't truly the best prices (the robinhood model), which might be best if trading small amounts but for large amounts paying a small fix fee per trade is likely best.

No cap gains tax charge by US on non us citizen, 30% on divds but if you complete wb8 form or something like that it goes down to 15%. (Unless it has changed since i last completed one). Then of course uk taxs still apply.

Only saw core was a beat so assumed ex food and energy beat expectations to. Glad it didn't.

Apparently next meeting a cut is highly likely. And with tariffs effects hitting late aug to october, then there's a chance we could see fed cutting as inflation is rising slightly. Which would be interesting indeed. Pardon the pun.

Those of us with brains do.