Member Info for TheOracleofOmaha

Lets hope he doesn't chicken out this time round. Bbb already passed, maybe just maybe, he holds out this time.

Yeah that's true.

There were a couple cargo planes that flew from china supposedly going to europe that turned off their trackers (over I think Tajikistan) and never arrived in europe. It would be in china's interest to prop up Iran for a prolonged war especially if the help came with the condition of not hurting oil supply.

Troubling news, Iranian parliament have voted in favour of closing the straight of hormuz. It still up for their security council to decide but if they do, a significant chunk of global oil supply will be cut off. On top of that saudi, qatar, kuwait, uae are economies largely dependent on oil exports and could well lead to destabilisation within these countries.

Bad for the world, but not for the price of gold.

"Pardon me but seem equally as daft as you think revenue is all important. In buissnrss profit is sanity and turnover vanity. "

How have i suggested in anyway that revenue is "all important"? Take an accounting class mate ,profit can very much be manipulated to a significant degree over the short term. Whereas there is way less room for manipulation of revenue.

I used cash generation from operations as a % of revenue in the table cus that it the relavent metric to highlight sotolo incorrect statement about "churning out cash". For its size of operations it is churning out cash somewhat in line with the others.

Pls clarify your position, you "saved 60k" and sold 300k? Are you fully out of hoch now? Don't want you claiming your up 100k by end of next week, after the fact again.

Also " Unlike other miners Hoc is not churning out the cash to give decent dividends nor is it likely to this year, hence the deserved and about right valuation" - Sotolo

Company Cash Generated from Operating Activities (2024) Revenue (2024) % of Revenue Primary Region(s)

Hochschild Mining $321.25 million $947.7 million 33.9% Peru, Argentina, Brazil

Fresnillo Plc $1,300 million $3,496.4 million 37.2% Mexico

Buenaventura (EBITDA Proxy) $431.2 million $1,154.6 million 37.3% Peru

Pan American Silver $724.1 million $2,818.9 million 25.7% Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Canada

Fortuna Silver Mines $365.7 million $1,062.0 million 34.4% Peru, Argentina, Mexico, Côte d'Ivoire

Hoch already paid a dividend and may well do another in September this year. Unlike most miners, Hoch is expanding and investing aggressively which will not only increase the production significantly but will also substantially bring down average overall aisc for the business. Despite all this Hoc is already not far off it's industry competitors when it comes to cash generation (based on 2024 figs). Its likely Hoc, 4 years from now will be a bigger "cash cow" in terms of cash generation as % of rev, than most in the sector.

Sotolo to have a big portion of your wealth in a business for years on end without doing basic due diligence, is reckless and stupid. You're giving off 'old man that has inherited large unearned fortune and cba to look into what I'm holding' vibe or 'I'm lying about having a £1.3m position' vibe.

"A PE ratio of 6" and fully aware of future projects and you think its a "deserved valuation" your a clown sotolo keep your 500k+ share for sentimental reasons and hold a big chunk of your net worth in something trading at a deserved valuation.

60k > 50k which would make him wrong.

Burt you're a clown.

It very obviously wont cost 50,000 ounces full year production targer was 94-104k so midpoint being 99k. Production was over 25k at June 10th. With the majority of that period being the worse season for rain. As clearly communicated by HOC the issues are primarily related to heavy rain. There are plenty of mines that have to deal with much heavier rainful than MR and do so successfully. With appropriate water management and drainage/pumping systems open pit mines can deal with heavy rainfall.

To suggest that hoc will produce less than 25k ounces in 6.5months during a substantially dryer season is laughably ignorant.

Obviously its worth more than $100 an ounce when we literally have all the capex and organisational set up to extract it at comfortably less than half the aisc of the price of gold. The point made by a couple folks on the thread is that Q1 production was primarily down due to not being able to access the high grade areas. The tonnage achieved in q1 was in line with both q3 & q4 2024, the gold output was down due to a 33% decline in grade. Which is obviously a relavent and astute point to make and to call it "ridiculous" exposes your flawed understanding of mining.

Now this is frustrating levels of hypocrisy - "Please re-educate yourself on mining and business and do not invest if you don’t understand the basics. "

As for debt you're wrong yet again. Despite hochschild having very aggressive growth, debt has decreased from q2 2024 ($271.2m). I think you'll find costs for most gold miners have increased, whereas hoch had always been a relatively high cost miners they costs are set to decrease with MR, Monte and Royropata all being lower aisc than Inmaculada.

Burt, please try some due diligence. I agree, if gold was at $2000 hoc would be in trouble, but its 69% higher than that isn't it.

Time will tell if you're wrong (considerably so) on 50k MR and on £2.35 per share "The drop I can assure you is not overdone". You and I clearly are expressing confidence in our messages, whilst being in clear contradiction to one another. So by definition this makes one of us an arrogant muppet. Time will tell.

Rogerk, do some very basic due diligence. At current pm prices 27% of rev is silver and 73% is gold.

Once Royropata comes online the proportion will shift more to silver but gold will remain over 50%, likely 66%.

Gold so silver price ratio is ~90

Out of curiosity what service do you use for orderbook data? I imagine its a paid service.

Think last couple years theres been votes against him. I imagine its due to remuneration for doing basically no work (idk if this is true, im just aware some board members can basically do nothing but take large pay cheques).

Apologies Sotolo, I read the messages in the wrong order and thought you had just repeated the same 25% drop in value due to 25% drop in profit. Not the first time ive read the board backwards and probably not the last. I'm sorry :)

Sotolo, as stated before, having a 1 for 1 ratio between current year profit and valuation for a business, that without reasonable doubt has a growing production line, is ridiculous!

Also MR actual end of year impact vrs intial expected production wont result in 25% decrease in after tax profit. With a conservative 70k production and a jump in aisc for MR of 1500 from targeted 1330 it has around a 20% impact. I believe the real impact will be less than 20% of 2025 profit. And again! 2025 profit makes up a very small portion of Hoc's discounted cashflows!!!!!!!

*Boards say mara rosa wont meet guidance

"mArA RoSa hAs LoSt 70% oF iTs VaLuE"

Defo no way it ends the year at 80k with average realised price of €3300. (S)

"A 25% hit to profits, which this is, broadly means a fall to to around 225p" hoc was trading at £3 per share yesterday 225p is 75% of 300p tell me you dont value a business as a multiple of current year profit????

Toyota had $3B more profit than tesla in 2023. I guess Toyota must have been value higher cus all businesses produce consistent profits till the end of time.

Sotolo for someone sitting on 500k + shares you sure do have a very poor understanding of the business.

Remind me to tell new investors in 4yrs that hoc's valuation dropped 20% on news that mara rosa production target wont be meet.

"You mean royropata or inmaculada?" Yeah, nope little mara rosa.

Id be amazed if its below 70k. The ore produced was less due to rainful but the shortful was mostly due to the grade. (They couldnt get to the high grade). Market is full of clueless fools, much like theses forums.

Whether or not going forward mara rosa will be a 80k per year mine vrs 100k yr mine is unclear. What is clear is profit this year will be impacted by the guidance miss. Enough to justify 20% fall? Nope, obviously not. Hoc should be trading at £2b + (providing you are netrual at current pm prices and expect them to remain close to current levels in the long run) . Its not difficult to work out.

Given mr market being what he is, I really wish hoc would clarify everything best they can with every piece of news. I suspect guidance will be given in a couple months, or hopefully on Thursday and schitzo mr market will rocket back up a ridiculous %. Pushing back 15k gold at $2900 is not a big deal long term.

Motorbikes is only 6 weeks closure of processing plant (not mining activity). MR is gonna produce a lot more than half its start of yr production. Would have help Mr market from having a spaz attack if they gave updated guidance i suspect its over 80k (most of it being sold at higher that annual average price).

Bare in mind anyone actually capable of valuing a business with discounted cashflows (the logically correct way of valuing a cash generating asset), even with the most conservative risk discounts will have MR at no more than 35% of hocs value at current gold to silver ratio.

MR will still produce its expected production of its entire life of mine. The question is how persistent will the problems with dealing with heavy rain. If its not a one of then the life of mine will be extended and aisc will rise.

Q3 and q4 2024 were 23.75k and 25.53k so lets say 50k.

Q1 reduced due rain 16k. Processing plant closed for maintenance for 6 weeks. I'd imagine due to it not being needed as only running at part capacity. If you look at weather data in Goias q3 is a very dry period. So we should achieve over 25k (from the start it was understood q3 would make up for q1, but was also reiterated after q1's 16k). Q1 gold price averaged below $2900 i think. Q3 gold prices will likely average a lot higher. The drop (and panic in boards) shows lack of competency.

Q1 16k * 2900

Q2 ~20k* 3200

Q3 ~30k * 3300

Q4 ~ 25k * 3400

Would equal MR rev of around $295m. Which is a significant yet distant 2nd revenue generator for hoch. With royropata it will eventually be a distant 3rd and potentially a close 4th with monte.

I understand reduced guidance indicates less value per year and longer life mine as I doubt much can be done with heavy rain. But 20% is stupid. MR as a whole, even with very heavy risk discounts for royropata and conte, is worth at most 35% of hoc's value. The intrisic value of MR hasn't more than halved, mr market is ridiculous.

"fundamental traders" lmao