Member Info for TheOracleofOmaha

Out of curiosity what service do you use for orderbook data? I imagine its a paid service.

Think last couple years theres been votes against him. I imagine its due to remuneration for doing basically no work (idk if this is true, im just aware some board members can basically do nothing but take large pay cheques).

Apologies Sotolo, I read the messages in the wrong order and thought you had just repeated the same 25% drop in value due to 25% drop in profit. Not the first time ive read the board backwards and probably not the last. I'm sorry :)

Sotolo, as stated before, having a 1 for 1 ratio between current year profit and valuation for a business, that without reasonable doubt has a growing production line, is ridiculous!

Also MR actual end of year impact vrs intial expected production wont result in 25% decrease in after tax profit. With a conservative 70k production and a jump in aisc for MR of 1500 from targeted 1330 it has around a 20% impact. I believe the real impact will be less than 20% of 2025 profit. And again! 2025 profit makes up a very small portion of Hoc's discounted cashflows!!!!!!!

*Boards say mara rosa wont meet guidance

"mArA RoSa hAs LoSt 70% oF iTs VaLuE"

Defo no way it ends the year at 80k with average realised price of €3300. (S)

"A 25% hit to profits, which this is, broadly means a fall to to around 225p" hoc was trading at £3 per share yesterday 225p is 75% of 300p tell me you dont value a business as a multiple of current year profit????

Toyota had $3B more profit than tesla in 2023. I guess Toyota must have been value higher cus all businesses produce consistent profits till the end of time.

Sotolo for someone sitting on 500k + shares you sure do have a very poor understanding of the business.

Remind me to tell new investors in 4yrs that hoc's valuation dropped 20% on news that mara rosa production target wont be meet.

"You mean royropata or inmaculada?" Yeah, nope little mara rosa.

Id be amazed if its below 70k. The ore produced was less due to rainful but the shortful was mostly due to the grade. (They couldnt get to the high grade). Market is full of clueless fools, much like theses forums.

Whether or not going forward mara rosa will be a 80k per year mine vrs 100k yr mine is unclear. What is clear is profit this year will be impacted by the guidance miss. Enough to justify 20% fall? Nope, obviously not. Hoc should be trading at £2b + (providing you are netrual at current pm prices and expect them to remain close to current levels in the long run) . Its not difficult to work out.

Given mr market being what he is, I really wish hoc would clarify everything best they can with every piece of news. I suspect guidance will be given in a couple months, or hopefully on Thursday and schitzo mr market will rocket back up a ridiculous %. Pushing back 15k gold at $2900 is not a big deal long term.

Motorbikes is only 6 weeks closure of processing plant (not mining activity). MR is gonna produce a lot more than half its start of yr production. Would have help Mr market from having a spaz attack if they gave updated guidance i suspect its over 80k (most of it being sold at higher that annual average price).

Bare in mind anyone actually capable of valuing a business with discounted cashflows (the logically correct way of valuing a cash generating asset), even with the most conservative risk discounts will have MR at no more than 35% of hocs value at current gold to silver ratio.

MR will still produce its expected production of its entire life of mine. The question is how persistent will the problems with dealing with heavy rain. If its not a one of then the life of mine will be extended and aisc will rise.

Q3 and q4 2024 were 23.75k and 25.53k so lets say 50k.

Q1 reduced due rain 16k. Processing plant closed for maintenance for 6 weeks. I'd imagine due to it not being needed as only running at part capacity. If you look at weather data in Goias q3 is a very dry period. So we should achieve over 25k (from the start it was understood q3 would make up for q1, but was also reiterated after q1's 16k). Q1 gold price averaged below $2900 i think. Q3 gold prices will likely average a lot higher. The drop (and panic in boards) shows lack of competency.

Q1 16k * 2900

Q2 ~20k* 3200

Q3 ~30k * 3300

Q4 ~ 25k * 3400

Would equal MR rev of around $295m. Which is a significant yet distant 2nd revenue generator for hoch. With royropata it will eventually be a distant 3rd and potentially a close 4th with monte.

I understand reduced guidance indicates less value per year and longer life mine as I doubt much can be done with heavy rain. But 20% is stupid. MR as a whole, even with very heavy risk discounts for royropata and conte, is worth at most 35% of hoc's value. The intrisic value of MR hasn't more than halved, mr market is ridiculous.

"fundamental traders" lmao

They had a price target of £1.30 in nov 2023, wouldnt surprise me if they dont just take current share price and add 30% each time. Hard to take them seriously if you look at the analysts predictions over last 3yrs.

Add a significant US military strike against iran to your worse case. Any conventional military response would be difficult for iran (without any blue ship navy and no missiles or aircraft realistically capable of reaching US), so the response would likely involve other countries. I.e. striking US bases in the Arabian monarchies or mining the Hormuz strait.

You can only speculate where it is day to day, but its a silly valuation. The lion share of hochschild mining is a very simple business to understand and evaluate, it shouldn't be so misspriced.

Im sure its mispriced by the incompetency of Mr Market and not by a widely held belief that gold will drop off significantly over the next decade. But if we were to hedge all our gold production today for the next 15 years, in a world where Mr Market had some competency and arithmetic ability the valuation would shoot up 50% conservatively.

Pathetic.

"As for tea leaves I was correct we did not close over 296 and today we are lower for now . Still would like a close over 296 to add more ."

"onedb

Posts: 1,821

Price: 292.00

No Opinion

RE: Potential re-test of highs9 May 2025 14:38

Feel pretty confident that we beat the current 296 ish levels on close then we open up to a re-test to 330s

Look at momentum .,choose whatever oscillator of choice and we are not even close to over heating which made me exit at 328 . I feel we repeat that price action and maybe even less over heated so could lead to more and new highs ."

*HOC closed Friday 9th May at £2.90 not £2.96

*Opened Monday 12th May at £2.90 not £3.30

*As of right now, close of play 12th May, HOC is at £2.77.

*Goes on to brag he called it right, when its visibly apparent just two messages below his cheap speculation was in fact definitively wrong. Pathetic.

Bad enough you litre board with worthless technical analysis but tooting your own horn over how great you are when its blatantly obvious your speculation is wrong as much as its right. Anyone can flip a coin.

Why waste your time with tea leave just understand and evaluate the actual business behind the stock ticker.

Https://www.tiernangold.com/project/volcan-gold-project/overview/

The presentation has not been update (May 2025) and page

14 has now been removed "Taking Tiernan Public" page, so looks like it was a mistakenly added before details officially released.

One of these donkeys who thinks if he ctr c & v on every board then other donkeys will bid up his position. Never seen a donkey in the wild with money so i imagine its a waste of time, altho his time doesn't charge much of a premium.