Member Info for TheOracleofOmaha

HTTps://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-treasuries-reserve-asset-dc26f442

Trump administration certainly aren't slowing down the increasing political desire across the globe to reduce USD dependency

"dark i have been posting for months hoc will go higher £4 and £5"

"re: hoc 17 jul 2025 15:32 oracle i compute that it is fair value now at about 240"

hmmmm... insert >>>so that was a ******* lie

"Sotolo

Posted in: HOC

Posts: 3,693

RE: HOC17 Jul 2025 15:32

Oracle I compute that it is fair value now at about 240"

Sotolo is thrilled, he defo didnt sell down his position at £2.70

I'm really loving the volatility ;D

For every seller there's a buyer, I wouldn't look too much into which side initiates the trade.

Wetstowpods it depends on distance from price to intrinsic, exposure risk and opportunity cost. My share count is just over 2/3rds the size at its height. Although I've been lucky that HOC share price has been so volatile with my cumulative average selling price being £5.175 (tranches being sold, rebought for less, then sold again). I think HOC is a large % below its intrinsic but not enough for me to justify being all in on it.

I suspect shareholders will be happy come March/April time :)

The 8m looks like end of day of day uncrossing trade. A nice 5p higher than the preclose trades. The million share trade looks like an over the counter trade at lunchtime only getting picked up later in day.

I might have to send a pair of short shorts in the post to Marshall this Christmas.

The military budget is enormous, trust me they has 0 concern about silver (above ground inventory and potential recycling supply of silver absolutely dwarf the military's use of silver). There is misinformation about the Tomahawk containing 500 ounces of silver (material used is classified so most likely started out as a lie and apparently experts say its would actually have far less than 500 ounces). Even if it did have 500 ounces that would amount to just over $30k, lets say with silver at record highs it doubles overnight to $120 an ounce that still only $60k for a missile that cost $2m. It is insignificant.

Silver price is increasing as it is a monetary metal and investor demand is high, for various reasons. JP Morgan is a bullion bank and acts as a market maker and therefore benefits from a larger market (in other words a high silver price), they aren't in the business of deliberately taking net positions long or short, they are in the business of creating a market so they can collect fees. I can't say I know much about Blackrock's but I believe they provide silver etfs products in which case they would benefit from a higher prices, as the management fees would increase.

Outta boy 5.5x in 4yrs comes to 53% ROI per yr. Not too shabby

Incorrect 2025 hedge is 89k ounces.

This is incorrect he has been told many times.

2026: 50,000 ounces of gold at a fixed price of $2,167 per ounce

2027: 50,000 ounces of gold at a fixed price of $2,206 per ounce

2028: 21,000 ounces of gold at a fixed price of $2,117 per ounce

Prior post for hedges for current year:

"Hedges for 2025 are (in total 88k):

1. 29k at 2117 (average gold price being $3070.86) or $883 below spot for the period.

2. 60k at 2485 (this is the ceiling price met throughout the entire year) with an unknown average gold price for the full year. We dont know exactly when the hedges come due throughout the year or the closing of them and therefore don't know the loss on hedge (still got 3months of year to go). The average gold price will most likely be under $3485 given the ytd average gold price. So obviously even for the 60k it wont cost $1300 per ounce. Again most likely below $1000.

Most importantly hedges are a cash settled insurance policy. They have no impact on operations and are no reflection of the productivity of Hochschild's operations. They appear under the short-term and long-term liabilities section of the balance sheet, as they should, just like every other business that utilises them.

None of this is difficult to understand its all fairly basic and should be understood at first sight. I have explained this to sotolo countless times (the first couple of times quite politely and patiently).

TLDR Safe to assume anything that old charlatan post is factually incorrect."

Please tell my you've invested in RR over the last 5 yrs!!!

Pre Feb 2022 I had a fairly large BA position and RR was on the periphery of my radar (at a glance it was a very large business that had future solvency concerns but also made engines for the defence industry), on an app I use i have a list of "businesses to keep an eye on" sort of thing. The note sitting on it still reads "lots of debt, if market cap falls below £7b do a deep dive". Obviously if I tried to evaluate it back then I may have deemed it too difficult for me, but boy do I wish I did a deep dive into RR early 22.

To clarify im talking about sotolo.

Dark_Knight2020 he claims he is still an investor due to "sentimental reasons", that reason he later said was because he is 4th or 5th cousins with E Hochschild. Dumb, I know.

Amazes me how he praise himself on his "calls" over the past couple of months when 5months ago (to the day) he said fair value was £2.40.

I suspect gold will be even higher by then and silver lower. Value will be affected by 2025 resources additions and updates on Royropata and Monte, we may not get updates on that till March.

Intrinsically based on my averaged-probably-outcome assumptions on gold price; resource additions and development timelines, I think I will most likely have it valued in the £4b-£5b range (or £7.8-£9.75 per share range). That said I speculated Mr Market will stay considerably below that range. £5.6-£6 is a good shout to were the shares will be trading imo.

Given how much gold has risen (%) i understand why the market as a whole may be more conservative in their long term gold bear case when it comes to valuing gold miners. Either way my position will continue to gradually decrease as the distance between sp and intrinsic value continues to decrease.

My guess for end of feb sp....... £5.4 (pre-release)

My guess for end of April sp..... £6.25 (post fy results, discoveries & development timeline updates)

Shouldn't be long till volcan/tiernan goes live, Canada is a healthy market for miners and Chile a low risk jurisdiction. Potential is there.

Hard to disagree with £5+ or £2.6b if pm prices stay anywhere close to as high as they are now.

They are "unlikely to have naked shorts" cus that's illegal. The reason they disclose their net short position is that there is a regulation that short positions above a certain % of overall shares must be disclosed (i think its like 0.25 or 0.5%)

Hahaha they were holding 0.5% shares short in July 2024 when share prices was only £1.90 then the clowns increased their short up to a total of 2.1% by July this year when the price was £2.70 and they are still currently holding 0.89% of the shares outstanding short today at £4.35. Safe to say their net losses on HOC over the last two years are over £10m

They do hold it for good reason and at the right price under the right circumstance it can be the right asset to hold (such as last couple of years). But price matters, you can go wrong misunderstanding/ not trusting the system as some did in 1980-99, 2012-18, etc.

Would you still be happy holding gold today at $4,200 if the near future came with monetary expansion but increasing geopolitical stability and low inflation?