Member Info for thechinaman

TH, I was expecting/hoping to get confirmation of JV progress - I now have that
I was expecting to have a positive update on the RBL - yep, I have that
I wasn’t surprised to read that increasing oil production ain’t as simple as turning on a tap
However, I wasn’t expecting to find out DD on the JV was at an advanced stage - great stuff
I wasn’t expecting news that the Shannon reservoir could be possibly 30% larger than originally estimated (inferred from the volume of additional gas needed) - lovely jubbly
I am not in the least surprised someone has already tried undermining this update by Art

ATB
TC

So, get 36 wells to 84 bpd and we have 90,000 bpm, generating $5m+ a month. Looks eminently do-able!!

“On the right trajectory”, is what I suspect the CEO’s message will be tomorrow.

TC

Probably be a tree shake this am (hence the green box brigade’s efforts), building to blue this pm and perhaps an RNS bright and early tomorrow. Whichever, patience as all will look v different by Xmas with sp above 50p very possible IMHO.

GLAH
TC

Still reckon Tuesday bright and early for an RNS, with MMs having another go at scaring folk by dipping the sp on Monday. Hold long and strong.

GLAH
TC

Not that it matters, as long as we get an update, but I’m going for a 7am Tuesday RNS with news on the RBL, and the production work plan. Does Art want to give folk too much time to think up questions by giving them the weekend to mull over details or ride a wave of excitement at fresh and hopefully positive developments? As said, not important but whiles away the time before news drops.

GLAH
TC

Anyone with L2 see a large buy trade at close or shortly thereafter? Big green bar appeared on my daily chart but can’t see it reflected in the LSE trades list.

Looking good today and building towards news by end of the week?

GLAH
TC

Sooo, gross value of 1&2p resources once extracted, at say $50 a barrel, would be about $2,500,000,000. And that excludes the new, billion+ barrels yet to be defined but likely to be x 4 current 1&2p resource.
And the current mc is about $50,000,000?
Not bad, not bad at all.
Re rate will have to start at some point.
GLAH
TC

Stas20, your post of 15.48 - apologies if I have misread but you appear to have confused BOED with monthly aggregate flow figures. Appreciate that we’re all optimistic for future flow rates but just want to ensure newbies aren’t mislead. Hopefully, these rates will be the actual boed per well at some point!

GLAH
TC

I wonder whether there’s behind the scenes agreements being enacted to extricate both EVR and HMG from this mess. Sell all non-Russian assets and distribute proceeds among Western shareholders while core Russian shareholders get to delist and retain their ‘home’ assets. Ok, we wouldn’t get full value but say £2-3 ps would be better than nowt. Yes, I know but stranger things etc etc.

Suncreamed weekend all.
TC

Paper cert arrived this morning. Now looking for a frame…..

Nope, not yet. Did wonder whether Comp. intends to hold them electronically. Be a tad irritated if so as taken the shares out of an ISA wrapper for the privilege of paper.

TC

Yep. Interesting accounting. A sleight of hand to hide true profit position which can be revealed at some point in the future and distributed as a ‘special’ dividend (to echo our Mr Putin) when more politically acceptable? We’ll see.

GLAH
TC

Nothing strange about the timing as far as I can see. Toronto is 6 hours behind GMT so 4 pm start here is a 10 am start in Canada. Timing maps on to Canadian and UK business hours… and Arty needs his breakfast, I’m sure.
Be great if he did make a BIG announcement though!!

GLAH
TC

Many thanks for your thoughts, BPP. I guess real world issues will always be there but EVR looks to be coping. Interesting observation by Infinity - let’s hope that billion plus will be revealed at YE!

GLA
TC

Thanks for this, BPP, though tbh, I don’t follow every point! Guess my question is, do you think the performance looks good, bad or indifferent? Also, do we have the cash to pay outstanding bond payments and possibly, all bonds should it be deemed a default, albeit caused by sanctions, should occur?

Would value your view.

BW
TC

Good morning. I was hoping for some informed responses to the projections I set out.
It would be good to keep this theme current as I suspect there are some who would prefer to use the most recent RNS to argue the number of angels on a pinhead and thereby clog up the bb and cloud the progress COPL is making.
The fact none of the green boxed have responded suggests to me the disrupters would prefer to bury topics, such as production and income, that do not play into their negative narratives.

GLAH
TC

I can understand there’s been much focus on the means to the end ie financing of production and I have appreciated the expert interpretations but perhaps now is the time to look at the reason for the financial acrobatics and remind ourselves of the bigger picture.

I’m not an expert, and apologies if this has been covered, but to get the ball rolling with some calcs on future income (and welcoming more informed views):

By early 2023 ( ie 6-8 months away), in addition to getting current wells up to the 5,000 bpd, the plan is to drill two wells in the new discovery zones, with each having two horizontal offshoots. Projected flow is 1-3,000 bpd per well. So, with a relatively modest development plan, by February 2023, COPL is looking to pump some 7-11,000 bpd.

7,000 x 7 days x a conservative $60 a barrel = $2,940,000 pw
11,000 x 7 days x a conservative $60 a barrel = $4,620,00 pw

So, without any further development beyond the above throughout 2023, COPL could be generating $152,000,000 to $240,240,000 pa before OPEX/CAPEX. All assuming Wti at 60% of current price and no further drills or development. Puts $19-25m into context, methinks.

While the focus over the coming weeks will be on the total resource in the new discovery, for me, if ‘only’ fifty to a hundred million barrels of recoverable oil is identified, that means my modest calcs could be the kind of values COPL would generate for many years to come…..

…Now x that by 51 sq miles, 150 wells and 500,000,000 barrels ; )

I was advised to look at the horizon if you felt seasick. Same’s true with the daily ups and downs with share investments. Lots on the horizon to be cheerful about, in my view.

All thoughts welcomed and I look fwd to lots and lots of green boxes!

GLAH
TC

Dummy sale: offered 20.55pps for 206,000 shares. MMs on the hunt for shares.

GLAH
TC

Dummy sell for 206,000 shares and was immediately offered 19.8pps - looks like MMs want shares.

GLAH
TC

Thanks, Usernames. Suspected that was the case - interested to know what happens if EVR re-lists elsewhere. If I paid for the shares but they’re ’owned’ by the wrapper, does the wrapper organisation simply gain some equity FOC because an individual can’t hold such shares in an ISA/SIPP or do the shares simply disappear into the ether?

Confused.com

TC