Member Info for thechinaman

Hurrah! We’ve got our first derampers in the house! Thank goodness. Was getting a bit worried. I can sit back and relax now as they try to wrest shares from the weak. A little subtle hint of an issue here; a rant about bugger all there. Great fun! ‘Delay’ = out of CVN & ADV’s hands. By the way, given B 10 is targeting the apex of the attic, piercing that ain’t going to take four weeks (if it’s there, of course) so I’d expect some news a couple of weeks after spud, max ie v early Jan. The experts on the board are no doubt better placed to comment. Anyway, welcome derampers, though I suspect some of you have been sitting waiting in camouflage on the board before now revealing your true colours. ; )

GLAH
TC

Agree. MMs know the clock is ticking and the rig may well be on the move over the weekend. They’re shaking the tree to see what will fall out - eg leveraged T20 punters who were expecting spud and an sp rise by now. Nothing material has changed. Still ridiculously high COS @ Buffalo, great partner in CVN, sound ADV business model, experienced BoD, and more deals in the pipeline.

GLAH
TC

Thursday? Not Tuesday?

Not sure why PIs are agonising over the spud date being x or y. The only issue for me would be if the drill was being abandoned….which is not the case.
A few days one way or the other for the spud is neither here nor there and only traders (looking for a few % trades) will be focussed on “delays”.
For me, production COS (85%) is the relevant factor here - the rest is simply noise.
Having said that, I still expect we’re going to get spud and news on the oil resource before the end of the year.
Obviously, those who are anxious that they’ll have to wait a couple of days for news can simply sell.

GLAH
TC

Agree, Bladey. Even if the 10%-ers do their thing on spud news, I can’t see the sp falling much below pre-spud sp (5-6p?) given the very very high CoS and news on other projects, already gestured to by the CEO. Still think ADV will be in the teens pretty soon ie Q1 2022.
GLAH
TC

Well, as expected MMS are shaking the tree to see what PI shares fall out! Closer we get to spud, the more vigorous the shakes! No news is good news, in my view, as these dips are perfect buying opportunities.

GLAH
TC

Agree - charts are useful but more for trading than investing. ADV is, for me, clearly a share for a long term hold. The 10%-ers will get their small gains and each to his/her own but for serious profit, ADV is a buy and hold IMHO.
Usual MM games as we lead up to rig/spud news - and no doubt there’ll be dips along the way, but January/Feb, with news on Buffalo and more on other deals, I think we’ll start to see a substantial re-rate towards the Jadestone-size MCap.
GLAH
TC

The CVN presentation slides on Buffalo 10 are very clear. The 3C projection of possibly 3 years+ of 30,000 bopd and 13 years of production overall is staggering…. And 50% of the post-tax profits will be little ADV’s! So, what MCAP/sp would that mean?

Patience is key here but only til year end, even if spud is in late November, and maybe before Xmas as drilling will not need to be completed (35 days in total?) before a good idea of the size of the reservoir becomes evident?

Those more expert will no doubt correct me if I’m mistaken.

GLAH
TC

Anyone having problems trading stock using the Jarvis platform?

Oh, I do love these early doors exchanges! Everything is civilised, informative, and productive. Sadly, I predict that within a couple of weeks we’ll have the 24/7 derampers, the rockets, “I wouldn’t want to be” brigade, the endless bickering over how many angels one can get on a pinhead, and the personal and gratuitous insults. Ah, well, I’ll enjoy the discussion while it lasts.

For me, the chart movements, in the context of the upcoming news, would be as expected? But MMs will attempt to confuse I suspect so upshot? Hold IMHO

GL
TC

Soooo, looking back a little further but not that far back, really, when you consider we’re looking at a deal involving $$$$ billions in pgm resources, these key statements from the 12th May 21 RNS explain and give a clear line of sight through the 26th July and 24th September RNSs to the JORC that we’re expecting “shortly”.

[key words…]

Potential asset sale…..

Eurasia Mining Plc ("Eurasia" or the "Company"), the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company, is pleased to announce that a proposal has been received for the acquisition of certain assets of the Company,….

[So, just Monchetundra and flanks or the whole company given …]

…the Company has now received several proposals including a proposal from a credible party for the potential acquisition of substantially all of Company's assets. The Board has decided to focus on this potential asset sale.

The Board will continue to explore value creating options for the Company. Eurasia's current advisers will be advising on these value creating options.

[The BoD’s strategy and criteria comes together in the NYUD JORC as once the Rosgeo licences are 100% owned by EUA then the ‘proposal’ from a ‘credible party’ can proceed]

Christian Schaffalitzky, Executive Chairman of Eurasia commented: "The Directors are committed to maximising the value for all the shareholders, and we are delighted to have received a proposal from a credible party that could allow us to pay a significant dividend to all shareholders. We are also committed to the concurrent development of the Company in two PGM districts: in the Urals, where we have recently had our DFS and Technical Project approved to expand volumes with 3 plants in production this year (as opposed to 1 plant in previous years); and in the second district of Kola, where we concluded the Rosgeo JV to significantly expand our presence both in PGM and in battery metals segments.

[The BoD is creating a world leading producer but that doesn’t mean EUA will be running it]…]

James Nieuwenhuys, CEO and Managing Director of Eurasia commented: "After significantly strengthening our position in the open pit PGM district of the Urals and in the PGM and battery metals district of Kola recently, we are enthusiastic to advance a potential deal that provides an opportunity to monetise the value to Eurasia's shareholders. We are also focused on the creation of a globally significant producer of PGM and battery metals. We believe the timing is perfect taking into account the consistent supply disruptions in PGM and battery metals segments".

GLAH
TC

….JORC Code compliant competent persons report on Nyud.

[“Concurrent” and “strategy” - for me, still equals full sale]

Christian Schaffalitzky, Executive Chairman of Eurasia commented: "The Directors are delighted that a highly experienced professional is joining Eurasia, as we are committed to the concurrent progress of both our operations and our strategy as announced on 12 May 2021".

[ Worth reading the 12th May RNS…..]

For those new to EUA and haven’t yet had a read through the key recent RNSs, here’s one that for me, plots the path the BoD have marked out, with some obs by me.

26th July, ‘21

Kola Subsidiaries' New CEO Appointment

Eurasia Mining Plc ("Eurasia" or the "Company"), the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company, is pleased to announce an appointment of a new CEO of its Kola subsidiaries.

[Noting Firstov’s CV ie Rosgeo - so if JV sold on by EUA, is this appointment to ensure the project is still run within Russian network?]

Konstantin Firstov, former Managing Director of Rosgeo has been appointed as CEO of Eurasia's 100% subsidiary Yuksporskaya Mining Company / Yuksporskaya Gornaya Kompaniya ("YGK")

[So to repeat, a safe pair of hands that can ensure continuity of the project, whoever the owner is?]

Konstantin is an experienced mining engineer having also previously worked as the head of open pit mining at Achinsk, the largest operation of Rusal, a leading company in the global aluminium industry, producing metal with a low carbon footprint.

[This next paragraph, and the use of the word ‘interim’, confirms explicitly the intention as far as Monchetundra and flanks are concerned ie sale and divi - though I think the BoD is also willing to enfold that sale within a 75% plus sale of EUA - see below]

Konstantin has further been appointed an interim CEO (interim in the framework of the RNS released on 12 May 2021) of Eurasia's 80% subsidiary Terskaya Mining Company / Terskaya Gornaya Kompaniya (that holds the Monchetundra license and the Monchetundra Flanks license).

[The BoD then spells out the mechanics of the Rosgeo licence acquisition.]

As announced via RNS of 26 March 2021, Eurasia signed a binding agreement to create a joint venture with Rosgeo in which Eurasia will own a 75% equity stake in nine PGM and battery metals assets (four of which are post Russian Feasibility Study with state approved reserves) with a total of 104.6Moz of Platinum equivalent Russian Code reserves and resources in the immediate vicinity of the Company's Monchetundra Project in the Kola Peninsula.

[The detail here serves as a reminder of the significance of last Friday’s RNS, as the JORC that is due “shortly” triggers EUA being able to acquire the full 100% shareholding of Monchegorskoe LLC. And for me, this justifies the recent modest dilution as the $35m EUA now has will leverage huge value, maximising the sale price the BoD can demand.]

As further announced on 15 June 2021, Monchegorskoe LLC was created to hold the licence for the Nyud open pit PGM and battery metals deposit ("Nyud"). Eurasia's 100% YGK has signed a notarised agreement with Rosgeo Group company pursuant to which YGK will become a 75% shareholder in Monchegorskoe LLC after the licence for Nyud is transferred from Rosgeo to Monchegorskoe LLC. Eurasia, through YGK, will also have a right to acquire Rosego's 25% shareholding in Monchegorskoe LLC

A “punt”, I guess, but one informed by research of the fundamentals. I could not understand why a company with Monty and a Sinosteel agreement plus WK and a gold tailings project (yes, haven’t forgotten Semenovsky) could be so cheap. So, bought in heavily in mid 2018 @ about .45p. My prediction was for a sale between 8-20p! Glad I got that bit wrong! Gains has paid off my mortgage and made retirement comfortable. Still lots of headroom for more recent investors and as others have observed, EUA illustrates what research and patience can yield on AIM.

GLAH
TC

Interesting logic, Wolf. My investments are based on minimising, not exposing myself to, undue risk. Would I invest if the CoS was 15-20%? Nope. But if the CoS is 85% and, as others have noted, success enhances ADV’s MCap tenfold plus, then low risk, high reward makes this a sensible investment.

GLAH
TC

Best agree to disagree, H. For me, the slip from 30p took a while (6-8 months?) so the rise to 35p isn’t “nonsense” and the bull flag a valid chart movement.

ATB
TC

Looks like a bull flag forming - ie consolidating after a steep rise, with a slight falling sp, and suggests this will be followed by an equally significant push north equal in strength to the 14-35p surge. 55p perhaps as next consolidation plateau?

Now I wonder what might be the catalyst for the next move north? ; )

GLAH
TC

PS That’s “bull flag’ not the bull ***t spewing from the keyboard doom and gloom warriors

This morn’s RNS a good read and contains much to digest. As for so many, it is a timely reminder of why I have had to dig in (Ho Ho). Through the shenanigans. The last few weeks have given me flashbacks to the arid times bobbing around at .4-.5 pence and that torrid time when we dipped down to less close to a third of a penny! Other such trying times have come on gone and here we are on the cusp of a tsunami of news and (dirty word though it it might be in these difficult times) wealth. Not sure why, given how fortunate we are to be holders, there’s been the discord. We’re hanging on the shirt tails of a great business. Enjoy the ride!

GLAH
TC

Worth looking at Tullow to get perspective on managing debt and potential income over the coming year:
….expects a full-year operating cashflow of $600 million, steady from last year, if the oil price averages $60 a barrel for the rest of the year, it said on Wednesday.

If oil prices, currently at around $76 a barrel, average $70 for the remainder of the year, operating cashflow would go up by $50 million, it added.

Tullow, which refinanced it’s $2.3 billion debt pile this year to extend maturities, expects to invest $250 million, mainly on drilling in Ghana, and financing costs of $290 million.

GL
TC

Ah, those were the days, Mac! TDT also banged on about the difference between the weight measures used (ozs) in describing the resource at MT, and crowed about any slight retrace in the price of palladium. All his pompous pronouncements laced with arrogance and disdain as he called us holders “idiots” - that worked out well for him: .45p to 40p+…. Hope he’s still following this board. Hi, TDT ; p

GLAH
TC