Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Criticism where it’s due, hms, and I will challenge where I think comments are unjustified. No doubt you would like to spout your rubbish unchallenged but ignoring such comments means other readers of this bb end up with a one-sides view which may well suit your agenda but ain’t going to happen.
TC
You do talk some unjustified and negative rubbish, hms. The vocabulary you use is curious: “fear”, “defeat”. You suggest ADV control events when clearly the delay in the handover of the rig was not in their hands any more than the timing of the spud will be. There is no “defeat” to date, simply a delay and similarly, any slippage in the drilling schedule. In fact the major ‘victory’ was little ADV getting 50% of a 85% cos project like this!
What is key, of course, is what the drill reveals - that too is out of ADV’a hands but 85% cos is pretty good odds but again the outcome is not theirs to determine.
Trying to weave this negative narrative is inaccurate and misleading and makes one wonder about your agenda.
Spud now or in a week’s time makes no difference to the outcome of the drill. But, of course, if a personal ‘defeat’ for you, hms, do us all a favour and sell up and move on.
GLAGH
TC
Agree. NoEasy. “yet another f up” suggests some incompetent actions by ADV/CVN - what might they be, Hms? The only “fault” that I have seen is that the current rig contract has over run - definitely not of CVN’s doing!! Meanwhile, CVN has put in place all that it can in prep for transfer of rig and spud.
TC
Latest news on CVN website re new recruitment. Think CVN has admin covered pretty well….
With the Buffalo-10 well drilling campaign about to start, activity in Carnarvon’s Timor Leste office is ramping up – and so is recruitment.
Housed in the Timor Plaza building in the Dili District of Comoro, Timor Leste Country Manager Angelo Lay has spent a fast-paced six months preparing for the campaign and is ready for things to get busier.
The Timorese local, who lives in nearby Culuhun with his wife and two children, said his 14 years working in the Timor Government’s Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo e Minerais (National Petroleum and Minerals Authority) had been an ideal training ground for transitioning and preparing the Buffalo project.
“I started with the Carnarvon team in September 2019 after the production sharing contract (PSC) took effect with Timor-Leste,” he said.
“My previous experience working for the ANPM and an onshore exploration company has given me good understanding of regulatory environments and compliance requirements in maritime operations.
“Although I don’t have a huge amount of technical knowledge, my strength lies in understanding exploration strategy from exploration, operations right through to decommissioning.”
Since joining Carnarvon, Mr Lay’s day-to-day responsibilities have been weighted towards liaising with Company headquarters in Perth and advising on regulatory compliance, contractual obligations, taxation and on-ground government relations.
But his role is set to ramp up to include recruiting locally and stepping up as a Company ambassador in Timor Leste.
“At this stage of drilling there is a lot of activity to attend to. Once drilling starts, I’ll be supervising accounting, overseeing expenditure and looking towards the future,” he said.
“When the project becomes operational we need to hire a local content officer, the team here will be growing.
“As a Company we also want to show that drilling brings an opportunity for employment to the Timorese.”
Mr Lay said plans to visit Carnarvon’s headquarters in Perth were thwarted by COVID-19 but he’s looking forward to a trip when borders re-open.
“Carnarvon has a great working environment, very professional and all the staff have a strong work ethic,” he said.
“Hopefully I can get there soon to meet my colleagues and review our drilling program’s success.”
Ignore Wyn. Been a deramper all along.
Wyn: “I agree that this delay (whatever the cause is), is nothing to do with ADV, but that's not the point. The delay is, and the cause therefore is, important.”
TC: Que? Your comment, Wyn, reads like gobbledygook to me given the “Cause” has been identified and as all have acknowledged has nowt to do with the merits of the Buffalo 10 drill.
I’ll be holding and buying the dips ….but not on the back of scaremongering.
GLAH
TC
Hurrah! We’ve got our first derampers in the house! Thank goodness. Was getting a bit worried. I can sit back and relax now as they try to wrest shares from the weak. A little subtle hint of an issue here; a rant about bugger all there. Great fun! ‘Delay’ = out of CVN & ADV’s hands. By the way, given B 10 is targeting the apex of the attic, piercing that ain’t going to take four weeks (if it’s there, of course) so I’d expect some news a couple of weeks after spud, max ie v early Jan. The experts on the board are no doubt better placed to comment. Anyway, welcome derampers, though I suspect some of you have been sitting waiting in camouflage on the board before now revealing your true colours. ; )
GLAH
TC
Agree. MMs know the clock is ticking and the rig may well be on the move over the weekend. They’re shaking the tree to see what will fall out - eg leveraged T20 punters who were expecting spud and an sp rise by now. Nothing material has changed. Still ridiculously high COS @ Buffalo, great partner in CVN, sound ADV business model, experienced BoD, and more deals in the pipeline.
GLAH
TC
Thursday? Not Tuesday?
Not sure why PIs are agonising over the spud date being x or y. The only issue for me would be if the drill was being abandoned….which is not the case.
A few days one way or the other for the spud is neither here nor there and only traders (looking for a few % trades) will be focussed on “delays”.
For me, production COS (85%) is the relevant factor here - the rest is simply noise.
Having said that, I still expect we’re going to get spud and news on the oil resource before the end of the year.
Obviously, those who are anxious that they’ll have to wait a couple of days for news can simply sell.
GLAH
TC
Agree, Bladey. Even if the 10%-ers do their thing on spud news, I can’t see the sp falling much below pre-spud sp (5-6p?) given the very very high CoS and news on other projects, already gestured to by the CEO. Still think ADV will be in the teens pretty soon ie Q1 2022.
GLAH
TC
Well, as expected MMS are shaking the tree to see what PI shares fall out! Closer we get to spud, the more vigorous the shakes! No news is good news, in my view, as these dips are perfect buying opportunities.
GLAH
TC
Agree - charts are useful but more for trading than investing. ADV is, for me, clearly a share for a long term hold. The 10%-ers will get their small gains and each to his/her own but for serious profit, ADV is a buy and hold IMHO.
Usual MM games as we lead up to rig/spud news - and no doubt there’ll be dips along the way, but January/Feb, with news on Buffalo and more on other deals, I think we’ll start to see a substantial re-rate towards the Jadestone-size MCap.
GLAH
TC
The CVN presentation slides on Buffalo 10 are very clear. The 3C projection of possibly 3 years+ of 30,000 bopd and 13 years of production overall is staggering…. And 50% of the post-tax profits will be little ADV’s! So, what MCAP/sp would that mean?
Patience is key here but only til year end, even if spud is in late November, and maybe before Xmas as drilling will not need to be completed (35 days in total?) before a good idea of the size of the reservoir becomes evident?
Those more expert will no doubt correct me if I’m mistaken.
GLAH
TC
Anyone having problems trading stock using the Jarvis platform?
Oh, I do love these early doors exchanges! Everything is civilised, informative, and productive. Sadly, I predict that within a couple of weeks we’ll have the 24/7 derampers, the rockets, “I wouldn’t want to be” brigade, the endless bickering over how many angels one can get on a pinhead, and the personal and gratuitous insults. Ah, well, I’ll enjoy the discussion while it lasts.
For me, the chart movements, in the context of the upcoming news, would be as expected? But MMs will attempt to confuse I suspect so upshot? Hold IMHO
GL
TC
Soooo, looking back a little further but not that far back, really, when you consider we’re looking at a deal involving $$$$ billions in pgm resources, these key statements from the 12th May 21 RNS explain and give a clear line of sight through the 26th July and 24th September RNSs to the JORC that we’re expecting “shortly”.
[key words…]
Potential asset sale…..
Eurasia Mining Plc ("Eurasia" or the "Company"), the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company, is pleased to announce that a proposal has been received for the acquisition of certain assets of the Company,….
[So, just Monchetundra and flanks or the whole company given …]
…the Company has now received several proposals including a proposal from a credible party for the potential acquisition of substantially all of Company's assets. The Board has decided to focus on this potential asset sale.
The Board will continue to explore value creating options for the Company. Eurasia's current advisers will be advising on these value creating options.
[The BoD’s strategy and criteria comes together in the NYUD JORC as once the Rosgeo licences are 100% owned by EUA then the ‘proposal’ from a ‘credible party’ can proceed]
Christian Schaffalitzky, Executive Chairman of Eurasia commented: "The Directors are committed to maximising the value for all the shareholders, and we are delighted to have received a proposal from a credible party that could allow us to pay a significant dividend to all shareholders. We are also committed to the concurrent development of the Company in two PGM districts: in the Urals, where we have recently had our DFS and Technical Project approved to expand volumes with 3 plants in production this year (as opposed to 1 plant in previous years); and in the second district of Kola, where we concluded the Rosgeo JV to significantly expand our presence both in PGM and in battery metals segments.
[The BoD is creating a world leading producer but that doesn’t mean EUA will be running it]…]
James Nieuwenhuys, CEO and Managing Director of Eurasia commented: "After significantly strengthening our position in the open pit PGM district of the Urals and in the PGM and battery metals district of Kola recently, we are enthusiastic to advance a potential deal that provides an opportunity to monetise the value to Eurasia's shareholders. We are also focused on the creation of a globally significant producer of PGM and battery metals. We believe the timing is perfect taking into account the consistent supply disruptions in PGM and battery metals segments".
GLAH
TC
….JORC Code compliant competent persons report on Nyud.
[“Concurrent” and “strategy” - for me, still equals full sale]
Christian Schaffalitzky, Executive Chairman of Eurasia commented: "The Directors are delighted that a highly experienced professional is joining Eurasia, as we are committed to the concurrent progress of both our operations and our strategy as announced on 12 May 2021".
[ Worth reading the 12th May RNS…..]
For those new to EUA and haven’t yet had a read through the key recent RNSs, here’s one that for me, plots the path the BoD have marked out, with some obs by me.
26th July, ‘21
Kola Subsidiaries' New CEO Appointment
Eurasia Mining Plc ("Eurasia" or the "Company"), the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company, is pleased to announce an appointment of a new CEO of its Kola subsidiaries.
[Noting Firstov’s CV ie Rosgeo - so if JV sold on by EUA, is this appointment to ensure the project is still run within Russian network?]
Konstantin Firstov, former Managing Director of Rosgeo has been appointed as CEO of Eurasia's 100% subsidiary Yuksporskaya Mining Company / Yuksporskaya Gornaya Kompaniya ("YGK")
[So to repeat, a safe pair of hands that can ensure continuity of the project, whoever the owner is?]
Konstantin is an experienced mining engineer having also previously worked as the head of open pit mining at Achinsk, the largest operation of Rusal, a leading company in the global aluminium industry, producing metal with a low carbon footprint.
[This next paragraph, and the use of the word ‘interim’, confirms explicitly the intention as far as Monchetundra and flanks are concerned ie sale and divi - though I think the BoD is also willing to enfold that sale within a 75% plus sale of EUA - see below]
Konstantin has further been appointed an interim CEO (interim in the framework of the RNS released on 12 May 2021) of Eurasia's 80% subsidiary Terskaya Mining Company / Terskaya Gornaya Kompaniya (that holds the Monchetundra license and the Monchetundra Flanks license).
[The BoD then spells out the mechanics of the Rosgeo licence acquisition.]
As announced via RNS of 26 March 2021, Eurasia signed a binding agreement to create a joint venture with Rosgeo in which Eurasia will own a 75% equity stake in nine PGM and battery metals assets (four of which are post Russian Feasibility Study with state approved reserves) with a total of 104.6Moz of Platinum equivalent Russian Code reserves and resources in the immediate vicinity of the Company's Monchetundra Project in the Kola Peninsula.
[The detail here serves as a reminder of the significance of last Friday’s RNS, as the JORC that is due “shortly” triggers EUA being able to acquire the full 100% shareholding of Monchegorskoe LLC. And for me, this justifies the recent modest dilution as the $35m EUA now has will leverage huge value, maximising the sale price the BoD can demand.]
As further announced on 15 June 2021, Monchegorskoe LLC was created to hold the licence for the Nyud open pit PGM and battery metals deposit ("Nyud"). Eurasia's 100% YGK has signed a notarised agreement with Rosgeo Group company pursuant to which YGK will become a 75% shareholder in Monchegorskoe LLC after the licence for Nyud is transferred from Rosgeo to Monchegorskoe LLC. Eurasia, through YGK, will also have a right to acquire Rosego's 25% shareholding in Monchegorskoe LLC
A “punt”, I guess, but one informed by research of the fundamentals. I could not understand why a company with Monty and a Sinosteel agreement plus WK and a gold tailings project (yes, haven’t forgotten Semenovsky) could be so cheap. So, bought in heavily in mid 2018 @ about .45p. My prediction was for a sale between 8-20p! Glad I got that bit wrong! Gains has paid off my mortgage and made retirement comfortable. Still lots of headroom for more recent investors and as others have observed, EUA illustrates what research and patience can yield on AIM.
GLAH
TC