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Thanks for this, BPP, though tbh, I don’t follow every point! Guess my question is, do you think the performance looks good, bad or indifferent? Also, do we have the cash to pay outstanding bond payments and possibly, all bonds should it be deemed a default, albeit caused by sanctions, should occur?
Would value your view.
BW
TC
Good morning. I was hoping for some informed responses to the projections I set out.
It would be good to keep this theme current as I suspect there are some who would prefer to use the most recent RNS to argue the number of angels on a pinhead and thereby clog up the bb and cloud the progress COPL is making.
The fact none of the green boxed have responded suggests to me the disrupters would prefer to bury topics, such as production and income, that do not play into their negative narratives.
GLAH
TC
I can understand there’s been much focus on the means to the end ie financing of production and I have appreciated the expert interpretations but perhaps now is the time to look at the reason for the financial acrobatics and remind ourselves of the bigger picture.
I’m not an expert, and apologies if this has been covered, but to get the ball rolling with some calcs on future income (and welcoming more informed views):
By early 2023 ( ie 6-8 months away), in addition to getting current wells up to the 5,000 bpd, the plan is to drill two wells in the new discovery zones, with each having two horizontal offshoots. Projected flow is 1-3,000 bpd per well. So, with a relatively modest development plan, by February 2023, COPL is looking to pump some 7-11,000 bpd.
7,000 x 7 days x a conservative $60 a barrel = $2,940,000 pw
11,000 x 7 days x a conservative $60 a barrel = $4,620,00 pw
So, without any further development beyond the above throughout 2023, COPL could be generating $152,000,000 to $240,240,000 pa before OPEX/CAPEX. All assuming Wti at 60% of current price and no further drills or development. Puts $19-25m into context, methinks.
While the focus over the coming weeks will be on the total resource in the new discovery, for me, if ‘only’ fifty to a hundred million barrels of recoverable oil is identified, that means my modest calcs could be the kind of values COPL would generate for many years to come…..
…Now x that by 51 sq miles, 150 wells and 500,000,000 barrels ; )
I was advised to look at the horizon if you felt seasick. Same’s true with the daily ups and downs with share investments. Lots on the horizon to be cheerful about, in my view.
All thoughts welcomed and I look fwd to lots and lots of green boxes!
GLAH
TC
Dummy sale: offered 20.55pps for 206,000 shares. MMs on the hunt for shares.
GLAH
TC
Dummy sell for 206,000 shares and was immediately offered 19.8pps - looks like MMs want shares.
GLAH
TC
Thanks, Usernames. Suspected that was the case - interested to know what happens if EVR re-lists elsewhere. If I paid for the shares but they’re ’owned’ by the wrapper, does the wrapper organisation simply gain some equity FOC because an individual can’t hold such shares in an ISA/SIPP or do the shares simply disappear into the ether?
Confused.com
TC
Any thoughts or advice for those holding shares in an and/or SIPP? Is it the case that the SIPP owns the shares rather than the client? If so, how does the transfer to certificates work? Any advice greatly appreciated.
Definitely need some ‘Good Luck’, holders!
TC
Apologies: ‘suggesting that none of these (imminent) developments, will be accretive’
TC
Interesting- you effectively dismiss CUDA purchase, an RBL, and a resource upgrade, and the planned drills, suggesting that none of these (imminent) developments, will not be accretive. Well, time will tell, I guess but suggesting a two year time line to any appreciable uplift in the sp strikes me as particularly pessimistic - no doubt some would suggest it a less than subtle deramp.
GLAGH
TC
What details can we expect if no RNS before the Q&A? Talk of the RNS early Tuesday as Canada hols on Monday so not sure how the Q&A 4.30 adds value. BTW, I hold 160k+ shares in COPL and check my history and you will see I do not deramp. Just looking for some insights from the LTHs here.
GLAH
TC
Well, we’ll see. More tea, vicar?
GLAH
TC
Forming? Apologies if already noted. Suggests a break out from sp of a month ago. and further confirmation this is heading up to 500p+ region? Other view, I guess is that it has to fill the gap ie at least reach 750p. But, hey, we can all play with these patterns - all seem to point upward, though!
GLAH
TC
Give generously - many of us have benefited. Not going for a guilt trip - but fact is I have been able to buy in to Poly when I would have otherwise been unable to due to Putin’s madness. Happy to give a little back.
GLAH
TC
Thanks for the replies. I guess I wanted confirmation that the director dealings were done when they were cos the window when they could buy was about to close if they wanted to take advantage of big news they knew would be coming along in late March/ early April. Hopeful that this is the reason for the radio silence ie can’t say anything yet or would be accused of unlawful insider dealing. Live in hope!
TC
Hi. Please help me out: CEO and directors buy/ give themselves substantial shares/options 1st/8th February - they can’t buy/sell shares in the company within eight weeks of insider news/information being shared with the market. So, does this mean we can look forward to some major news after 29th March?
Apologies if I have misunderstood the rules/implications.
GLAH
TC
And an attendant question: what about shares held in an ISA and/or a SIPP? Delisted shares not permitted in a SIPP, I believe, so how do I realise the value?
Ha ha. Clearly, Sustain is hoping people won’t bother reading the article and will accept his/her mendacious summary. To be clear, the writer does NOT think the divi will be cancelled and does think the balance of risk and reward justifies buying into EVR. Best read the article yourselves in f you haven’t done so already - a good and balanced analysis.
GLAH
TC
Ah, we have a ruskie deramper on the board! Welcome comrade bull*****er!
….Both within the BoD and on this board. Just shows a concern that the true value of HUR is coming through. Income is up, monthly oil is up, and cash in bank is up. Water cut is a non-issue only being focussed on to distract (much higher water cut in other production wells and no problems). Compare the figures from last output RNS and this one. So, how many more months of production and income before BHs have to be paid? You do the maths!
GLAH
TC
Cheers