Member Info for TerryM1

Hghotshot

Correct, if taxes were levied in the county of listing then we would find that a lot of international and other companies would have their main listing in Ireland, it shows a lack of understanding of finance and taxes.

Also OB will use anything to see DEC though rose tinted specs even if it is incorrect and use a lot of projections like they are facts. There is a lot he gets correct on DEC but fails to see the whole picture which is also doing with another one of my losers SQZ, it would seem once he makes a prediction on a company if it does not come true he doubles down and only looks at the good or potential good points. I don’t know how he is doing on other companies but for the ones I have 2 out of 2 are doing really badly.

Also he says

"$947.4m market cap"

"9.8% yield"

"2025 Forecast FCF $420m"

Then only $92.84m of the forecast FCF of $420m is going in dividends and only a pathetic amount in BB for a mature O&G company especially one which dropped the dividend by 2/3s and no plans to change this for 3 years looks completely out of kilter to me. For a company with a projected FCF of almost half it’s market cap and production hedged, low dividends (compared to FCF and historic SP) and BBs he makes no attempt to justify why DEC has to pay 9.75% to borrow more cash which it does not need for running the company.

This seems strange statement

“Besides a condition of ABS Debt is hedging. Doing so guarantees that repayments can happen in any market. So I believe a further benefit to DEC of the $300m bond is the independence to enjoy a greater proportion of high prices.”

So DEC takes out another $300m loan to enjoy a greater proportion of high prices, so I can only infer from that DEC has sold off some of it’s hedges which is not stated anywhere, as far as I can see DEC has increased it hedges and at no point reduced them.

One of the main issues with DEC are that the accounts are difficult to understand if that is at all possible so we cannot see what is going on with things like this additional debt.

OB stated

“Several readers asked me why did DEC borrow money at more expensive rates recently. Desperation interject the detractors (detractors are always desperate to try to find a negative, and that’s growing more difficult for them).

The answer I believe, is that DEC have a far more precise understanding of supply and demand dynamics than the Oak Bloke does, and they have identified higher prices ahead. Therefore if you are of a certain scale then you can afford a greater level of unhedged production. Besides a condition of ABS Debt is hedging. Doing so guarantees that repayments can happen in any market. So I believe a further benefit to DEC of the $300m bond is the independence to enjoy a greater proportion of high prices”

What a lot of words that somehow justify taking on huge amounted high priced debt, a simple fact low priced debt is better than high priced debt and you only take on high priced debt if no one will supply it at a lower price which says it all. Also the debt goes long past time period for the hedges so adds risk.

“A 15% corporate tax. It is a matter of time until DEC repatriates itself fully to the US and pays US Tax instead of the HMRC. Our 25% Corporate tax rate is uncompetitive to the planned 15% one.”

Is this correct! corporation tax is paid in the country where the profits are made not where it is listed and is why Shell moved from Holland when they tried to tax worldwide profits.

“NextLVL and the 1.5m abandoned and orphaned wells, as well as other companies ARO obligations”

Not much a reason to be positive as at present plugging only a small number of wells per year with no sign it will be scaled up.

“I remain unabashedly positive about DEC, but this isn’t some sort of state of mind. It’s the evidence.”

Great, the evidence is shareholders have lost large amounts of money with DEC and also the evidence states if Rusty does not stop buying for a time will continue to lose.

Add in Rusty view of shareholders "frankly my dear I don't give a damn" as demonstrated not only by actions but IR ignoring them.

JC01

Spot on, there is a saying for shares "it does not matter what you think it is what they think that counts", as we all know the market is sick of Rusty's shenanigans and lies, the state of the SP reflects this. He has burnt the long term shareholders, companies who took shares as part of the deals, those who took part in the last fund raise and the underwriters also leaving a large overhang of shares. The dividend is also a serious issue to a rerate, it is only high if you bought after SP trashed, stuck for 3 years as inflation wears it away, investors buy O&G for dividends not jam tomorrow.

OB stated

“Winter is coming I wrote. Winter came. Shorters melted ironicly, facing up to their chilling losses. You might say they decided to Bolt on.”

Correct, but what he did not say if they waited for the next Trusty Rusty cunning deal they would be well in the money.

“WTI Oil has fallen in 1 year from $84 a barrel to $60 before bouncing to $65 but this has driven down many O&G shares, including DEC. But Oil is only 26.33% of DEC’s revenue.”

It would have been a lot less without Rusty's latest acquisitions.

“The chattersphere constantly reverberates with the ignorance that debt is by definition bad and that DEC should “settle down” and stop making acquisitions. “Hold Hutson accountable” and that Institutional Investors “are weak, passive and…. don’t understand the business” says one voice.”

Firstly it is not so much debt is bad but high price fixed interest debt is bad, he saying that it is ignorant to think high priced debt is bad so he thinks it must be good so therefore the whole market is ignorant and he is correct.

Who else is to be held accountable if not Hutson for this debacle.

Institutional Investors are weak, passive is a demonstrable fact, they stood by and let this happen, 8 of 8 last of the acquisitions ended trashing the SP, seems OB does not like facts and those who do are ignorant.

Simpiles

Agreed, would not go quite as far as do the complete opposite, I believe these are just BOT generated with some of the facts but not all and are for all intense and purposes useless.

These Simple Wall Street articles are generated by a BOT and probably mean very little.

Https://www.fool.co.uk/2025/04/18/2-ftse-250-dividend-growth-stocks-ive-been-buying-after-recent-falls/

Don't usually take too much notice of this lot but article seems reasonable.

Trek

Like you I had intended to buy Duke with new ISA allowance but decided to put it off for a time. In the mean time I have added to ADIG, ENOG and BHP, all 3 seems too low, in profit on ENOG and BHP, took advantage of the fall with ADIG as it dropped after they turned down a bid as too low and will now sell off assets individually, gone up a little since I bought but in a loss because of dealing costs, stamp duty, and spread . Took a punt with my DEC dividends (paid in $s) on AGNC an American mortgage company which has a yield of 17% and been paying at this level since 2020, SP has taken a big hit with trade tariffs some predictions are dividends will be reduced but will probably still be high, in general has decent broker reports but Motley Fool seems to have it in for them, their mortgage assets are backed up my Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, their latest report should be coming out on Monday, may add more light on what is going on.

Still got shares in AGR, HEIT and BGCI, glad I left in HEIT as new counter bid but will consider selling and moving elsewhere if something more interesting turns up, perhaps DUKE.

GG for once you have got this right, it's good Friday and market closed.

DEC just broke $12, hopefully should break £9 tomorrow.

Been going up nicely since GG said "what a con the history of this dog is" keep it up GG the your doing wonders for the SP.

I check this with my investment advisor when BHP moved the main listing to Australia and there was no withholding tax, I can't remember the exact reason but was due to something like the way they were paying corporate tax or coved by corporate tax.

From discussion from 2022

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=16215&start=120

BHP is keeping it's London listing but it will not, as I understand it, be in the FTSE100 as it is no longer a UK company. So nothing will change for us UK investors except that the dividends will go on your tax return in the foreign section. Also as I understand it the dividends will be 'fully franked' which means that BHP has paid enough Australian corporation tax to cover the Australian dividend tax. As they are not actually deducting tax from the dividend it is not reclaimable or offsettable in the UK. You are taxed as if the net dividend was the dividend before tax and as if there was no franking or withholding tax.

So far all the dividends I have got have not had withholding tax.

"Savage is back! Come to the EZJ board savage. That should be fun, after all the wrong calls you have made. We missed you, but understandable that you could not show your face and needed to disappear for a few days to save yourself the embarrassment"

Also disappeared from the PNN board after telling everyone how RIs work and how it would drag the price below £2.64 after what was a very successful RI.

Savage_KeyboardR

"The consolidation once complete should make CPI a great stock for them shorters to extract lots of profits from. IMO - DYOR"

How did you come to this conclusion? the consolidation will change nothing. How's you PNN short going after you said it would be below £2.64 and it has gone up to £4.90, good job you only talk about shorting like you do about CPI.

"There's nothing to technically stop you accepting the offer and selling your share in the open market"

This is true as I can with my shares with II but when my partner tried to sell the ones in IWEB to buy another share found they we missing from the account and after speaking to IWEB they said it is because the offer was accepted. Tried to get this reversed but after about 30 mins on the phone with IWEB gave up as had a doctors appointment, this is not the first problem I have had with IWEB.

Worya

This is not the first time and I am sure it will not be the last DEC can't get basic things right, after all this is from a company that completely messed up shares for dividends and finance for their biggest deal ever. Add in having an IR department and completely ignoring shareholder that contact it.

Sorry cash around £30m

The discount will obviously not apply to the cash which from what I can understand around £30 so this needs to be taken into account when calculating the possible return.

As this has dipped I have added to my position today at 43.7p, hope I did not jump in too early but seems a one way bet in the long term.

Was tempted to sell out and put cash into another winddown/takeover target, glad I did not.

And a good number of BB, 55,000 average price £8.748, looks like market likes this.

DEC need acquisitions to replenish O&G, it is not the principle but the amount that is the issue which lead to trashing the dividend, huge debt and dilution. I would like to see debt reduction and BBs to reduce the dilution before any more acquisitions.

When gg pipes up about DEC being a con the SP rises almost 4% in NY tells us all we need to know.