Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Stevo 12,
I must also thank you for the critic, it make the creative better and make things go forward.

I made an box, lease & other, where I put it in row 120 (-23).
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
As I have it balancing on fcf (h1) is it not much different than before but it is probably easier to read when you know that it is there.

Next time we get new confirmed fcf will it be rebalanced and hopefully better to reach right point.
If you see something else, don't hesitate to speak up.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

AIMOilking,
It will be in the middle of February this time (ir).
Source: Malu, Discord.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo 12, ukbbbbbb,
I have read some of your fantastic post and you are thorough!

I have only AK in that post based on fee /d. taken from RIprospectus: https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Corporate_actionsPDFs/Rights_Issue/RIProspectus.pdf

Leasing of Bumi Armada Kraken
Days Fee / day Fee /year Share Share /year
365 447 352 163 283 480 70,50% 115 114 853
365 139 860 51 048 900 70,50% 35 989 475 From April-25

If the total lease use to be around 130 is it easy to change to that but cause of my lack of knowledge is it what it is.
Can you please try to explain that 130-number so I can save some time.

The holiday was great but I want to make a warning about buffet food (your stomach will not like it).

For this year do I have a minimum for what I expect of the share and that is 60% based on expected fcf and all of the up-side left.
------------------
Romaron,
That will not be my number if there will be any more competition and if it shall be any price do I want to contribute (I also have some dust collectors).
If I do so will my number just be unofficial.
-----------------
L7,
I think you'll wrong about Eagle.
It should be a single well, immediately (high) decline and around 6,5k in the beginning.
It's enough to take all decline for one year but it's better to look at Magnus 211/12b as it contains more oil.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have been in Thailand a while and it is not all what you expect.
30 degrees c. is not what all want and the drink's can be to cold or warm.
It is not so fun to drive jet-ski when your muscles hurt and all massage, cased by the numbers, being expensive (ironic).

I have updated files out and the biggest change is that the"80 -file" has gone as I have no believe in that price.
some price adjustment in the beginning of the year and another price (lower) of gas in "Seligi's gas".
The chart/key figures and flights is also worth to visit.

I haven't that much time so enjoy the files https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

If you think it was all just fine in Thailand can I say that I bought a best seller there (Imodium) =0

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

The production on Magnus was c. 1,7k /d better in Nov. than I expected and that's great news.
However have I wrote down some things in "100-file", updated flights (with -20 and -21 added, as I cant be worse than Flightradar who show all years now) and also decline-file.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

One thing to think about is that my capex forecast dont take care of the effect it gives and higher capex will give some back too.

This will be all for this time and I take Holliday for a couple of weeks.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pyueck,
Congratulations for your honour.

I'll think that it would be happier people with the winner on higher price and thought that it will be hard to keep that title.

Lets hope for a better -23.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

That didn't work specially good but you can see the historic numbers at row 139, at "chart", in my files.
/Kamrat

Hi!

AIMOilking,
In this case is it hard to not be rough.

You can also drink Turkish coffee or English tea and try to see the sight at the bottom.
or use historic data about the production.

Enquest´s historic production started at 2010

c Boepd
2008 10 150
2009 13 613 34%
2010 21 074 55%
2011 23 698 12%
2012 22 800 -4%
2013 24 222 6%
2014 27 895 15%
2015 36 567 31%
2016 39 751 9%
2017 37 405 -6%
2018 55 447 48%
2019 68 606 24%
2020 59 116 -14%
2021 46 201 -22%
2022 47 700 3%
2023 52 800 11%
Average -10 to -23 12%

But they will not give the answer if it's not a "lucky moment".
You'll better use numbers for your estimates and that gives me an idea that I can add BE in my alternative for forecast and make it easier for people to use someone who is near their own thoughts.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I'm sorry, it was a fault in alternative 4 and I have correct it but I don't like to do changes when there is people who looking at the numbers (because I disturb).

I hope you guys are looking for more things that could be wrong and trying to put me on the potty.

Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Questions and arguing make a perfect way to do things better so do that!
I shall try to follow this thread even if my time is busy in the near future.

I was arguing about oil prices (with goatstar) at the discord the last few days that resulted in me changing the files.
He argued for a low price and I for a high price and it might be worth reading back precisely because it was a good argument.
- I haven't changed my mind on that issue.

There are thus two files, one with 80 and one with 100 oil, where you can read out differences depending on how the company budgets.
In each file there are four different scenarios.

1. the one the file is set to and roughly the same as today except that "green" capex was added.

2. A variant that goatstar wanted with high capex but no green capex (other examples are with oil capex of annual $130m.

3. A variant with slightly higher green capex

4. A variant where you borrow 50% for green capex (it should be possible to get cheap loans in that niche) and there I take up the loan part minus interest and amortization as an asset.
Precisely to show how the value is drawn up through leverage, I also show how it would be if they paid out that asset, but if this variant is adopted, it will probably be a loan swap where you use the green loan to repay more expensive oil loans.
That detour is also included.

The files are their usual location and you are anonymous.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
Soon EV = EBITDA.

EV from 2017 to 2023 (yes, it is with forecast but -22-number is almost now)
2 720
1 879
1 818
1 474
1 700
1 158
719
The company is getting cheaper and cheaper every year but it will be different soon!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have done some changing as I saw that my old (based on rest-fcf) still was in file.
The example's is reduce to two and moved up in the beginning of the file.
The base is that debt ($1bn) will be reduced in 5 years, $200m /y, combinate with two capex-case there one of them is financed with loan of 50%.

With oil at 80 I see divi's between approx. 3.6p - 6.6p depending on whether they use loans for green capex.
This gives a rate of between c. 36p - 66p with a yield of 10%.

As the company earn on the margin is the case with oil $100 much more with the lowest divi over 12p.
There is a different blending between these models (more green capex in oil $100) cause at $80 will green capex put epl to negative numbers and that will they avoid.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

It is clear that the direct yield can end up higher (with a lower rate as a result), but then you just have to like the situation.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have made some changes to the forecast -23.
Enquest has said that they will change over time and it will be natural to invest in green capex.

It is likely that those investments will be paid off over time and I have added an example of them borrowing at half the capex cost and how it works out.

Of course there will be more money left over and it looks more like a business plan that way.

These examples will fall when they do their guide and shall sees like possibility's how they can do (as they will do it in their best way) and what to expect.

That make it significantly better than my other examples.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I did get a question about the valuation for Enquest with epl and I just had to do something about my valuation guide.
You cant have a valuation who's built of fcf after capex as its not comparable when capex go high, only if it is the same year after year.

I estimated that they would pay debt by $200 /y and there is three different capex-scenarios in forecast -23.
The combination with capex, green-capex and total $, as you find in the bottom of the file:
65m + 20m = 85m
85m + 30m = 115m
85m + 60m = 145m
There you can also see what is left over and which I see can be distributed.
But it will be history when Enquest releases its guide that will answer many questions.

It is the same in the three files with crude oil prices of 70, 80 and 100.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Have a great day/

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have just got confirmed that "green" capex gives deduction with * 1,8 compared with the deduction with oil capex as given * 1,29.

It is not updated in my files but I'm just going to leave a empty box until their update.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

After my update with the right calc. about EPL I'm sure what Enquest will do IF it's politically possible.
I now see that there are incentives for that and so will use the middle option for capex ($230m) in my guidance until the company comes out with its guidance.

Capex for GE to be able to drill its own wells is money well invested and that is probably also on the agenda when it comes to Bressay and Bentley.
We'll see if it ends, but I'm convinced that Enquest will remain in NS anyhow.

I am also quite convinced that they will turn off their amortization rate as the debt is low and that capex lowers EPL and I expect good news in the spring regarding dividend/bb.

Now I look forward to see their guide for -23.

Regards/K

Hi!

I saw that it was not adjusted dividend/bb for fcf in the examples in "forecast-23" but it is adjusted.

Another thing that has been adjusted is the percentage for dividend/bb to 25% of fcf (instead of 20%).
The reason is that I believe that even if the epl affects the dividend part, there was room in my model for unexpected costs.
At the same time, I have written up the yield from 8% to 10%, which in practice cancels each other out.

I simply expect a higher dividend but that the rate goes up to a dividend yield of 10% (instead of 8% which would have raised the rate).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7, all,
Now, I got mail from IR, can I talk with right conditions.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

There is two files, with low or normal price of oil.
In the bottom of the files is how it shall be calculated (ignore interest and depr).
I have also made comparing with different capex there and hope it is understandable.
You can also see if it match my guided (possible) divi/bb.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
Sorry for late respond (I haven't the time to follow what's happening).

As I have understood do you in the presented (my example 1.) also add interest and depreciation. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q_pW-o-lltxvhPWqxDEjdRsmREQXRGR_TdcvQFOqBJA/edit#gid=0
The question at discord was if that was correct (depr) and I only wanted to show why that doesn't matter.
With or without depr. (example. 1-2) do you not have the exchange to invest in that model so the money will go to debt and divi's.

At my example is it exchange to invest and IF the model is like that will it also be money invested.

If it was easy about the calculations would we also hear about it but when some company's not interested in investing in NS do I think that example 1 can be true and for all people in UK with lousy of money, I'll hope not as it will cost a lot to freeze some years with no investing climate.

We will see what's coming up.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I hear a lot of pessimism here.
There is no way that I throw in the towel yet!

I think, as I'm basically quite pessimistic too, that Aloy will have a hard time winning but refuse to say never.

Obviously, the company's guidance for how epl should be withdrawn is unusable (according to own analysis, but do your own).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q_pW-o-lltxvhPWqxDEjdRsmREQXRGR_TdcvQFOqBJA/edit#gid=0

The bottom line is, in any case, there must be a return for investment.

Even if my "suggestion" is incorrect, it must be based on the same principles, so I believe that my horizontal forecast will be significantly better when the clouds have dissipated.

Aloy, there's still a chance...

Regards/Kamrat