Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Wind power in Sweden.

Profitability and financing structure.

https://kvartal.se/artiklar/vindkraft-en-gron-bubbla-eller-ett-svart-hal/

posted at discord by Olle

(hope you can translate!)

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,

Of course, the tide will change.

People think that what is on the table will stay there when the truth is that it is the next part that will be taxed.

The state has no money trees so they have to collect them.

*some are fools or easily influenced (just look at juststopoil).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have updated the files as well as made them year based.

Feel free to criticize and send questions if you wonder about anything.

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

For EnQuest, there are a few things that would make a big difference besides the payoff being closer than before:

1. Increased oil prices

2. Successful test drilling on PM409 this summer (Malaysia)

3. The installments of Bond -23 and EPL completed (October)

4. Change of EPL (can happen but uncertain when if so. right now it is politics and not environment/economy that governs)

5. A deal is struck, for example a larger share of GE, and we can take advantage of existing tax deductions

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

January24,

I don't know how long their time horizon is, but if it's 1 year, it's clear.

For -24 the following are cheaper/missing in my files:

GE payment $50m.

Hedge requirement +$70m.

The transfer of payment of EPL to the following year is facilitated by the difference between 25% and 35%.

Price difference $76 vs $90 (payment for EnQuest, requires market price c. $83 h1 + $103 h2, $93y for -23 and $100 for -24).

Gives fcf of c. $270m for -23 before deducting GE and c. $530m for -24.

C. $120m will therefore come automatically.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Therapist,

I have not any good source on the price of gas in Malaysia but maybe we can co-work.

My counted numbers (and why).

mmscf/d 25

Boepy 1 460 000

Price /boe 40

PSC 30,00%

Profit 21 502 880

They produce 50mmscf /d and 50% go straight in the contract, so counted on 25mmscf /d.

25*160*365 = 1 460 000 Boepy.

The price, $40 /Boe is taken and here can maybe you help.

PSC, product sharing contract, is counted in the low area between 30-35% as the price is low but I can be wrong.

My profit stopped at $21 502 880

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stupmy,

It's a great opening with earlier contract with Petronas than expected (I thought it would be around -25).

Gross they produce 50mmscf /day and with our existing (extended) contracts.

That means c. 17,5mmscf /d to Enquest after 50/50 deal and PSC (product sharing contract) and the field will last in 144 years and give c. $15m. each year

No, they will speed it up and at normal circumstances does a gas field last in 22,5 y and produce more in the beginning.

I see it like some bonus, it's 1p /share and year, until they made it deliver.

Great news, those who is familiar with my files can see an average on the case in "Seligi's gas" and that average is c. 7x this reported numbers.

Fun with a little action.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

It looks that Torill Knutsen is next for offloading AK.
Don't have any details.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Time passes and the need remains.
The demand is incredibly high and there is nothing to suggest that it will not continue.

many have positioned themselves for higher prices and with a higher refinery capacity the price should spill over to the producers.

Shale, with the lower price, has consumed more duc's (pre-drilled, not fractured wells) as well as drilled further horizontally and its capacity to ramp up is limited.

The flight is (15/4) 7% over for the season and 1.29% for the year (commercial) and 19% (total flight) and 10.25% for the year.
In my forecast for the year, they end up at c. 2% and 11% over the record year 2019.

Much has been changed in the files with a focus on simpler updates.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

The file will be up for a longer time without updates and will be replaced with a new one at a suitable time in case of major changes.

It is a strength to be able to amortize the sums that will be made this year and give a lot back afterwards.
I don't see the oil prices that mean that it will be tight with the payments, but even such things the company is aware of and knows how to act.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

24 January,
At: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics do they show the number's in total and as commercial.

What you easily can see is that this year is high but you dont have the numbers on it as I have in the files (or easily count them with that numbers) and it haven't got any forecast.

Differences between the record year -19 and -22 was c. -14% in commercial flights and +4% for total flights (yes, it was already higher last year).

So far this year (1/4) does the commercial, with a bad start at year, be just over (+0,4%) -19 and my forecast say's that it will be just over +1% at year end.
For total is 1/4 -number almost 9% and my forecast says it will be c. 7,5% at year end.

As many have seen have I made forecast for flights, economic and decline and over the way will it be changing and I think I'm learn to not be overestimating even if there are also revisions.

I generally prefer to see an upside to my numbers.

I will send out my files next time that they have been updated (after what will happened with epl).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

onedb,
Translated into barrels needed to "plug" the reduction.

You got c. 70% Distillates + Gasoline in total from oil.
Distillates + Gasoline =' (-3,970 +- 3,693) / 70% ' corresponds to -10,947 barrels.
Add crude and you got -15,293 barrels.
A huge draw!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

There are ships from Europe who helping russia to export oil and damage the market.
They should be in shame!

Its hard to track these ships but I suspect that one of them is Petronordic who disappeared in September.
I don't either have the name of the owner and I wonderer if anyone know it (so I can send a message to them).
I'm also curious if anyone have the name and owner of other ships who can operate there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-30/russia-s-ghost-fleet-of-oil-tankers-is-a-floating-time-bomb?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg
(thanks' Modestus for the link)

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Jan,
I'll think you're right but there is hope.

For EnQuest, there are many cracking questions to make the puzzle fit together.

1. Hedge lowers the total price of income so that there are no excess prices even if they were to occur
(The Group's average realized oil price was around $103/bbl pre-hedging and around $89/bbl, including
the impacts of hedging).
The price obtained is lower than the market price and hedge is required in loan agreements.

2. The financing deteriorates because write-downs are needed due to EPL as RBL (reserve based loan) receives less basis.

3. As capital is lacking, there is also no way to invest in projects like Orion (https://cld.bz/Hnu6h1w/20/) (it must be financed by loan).

4. Capital is also needed for existing repayments and a loan in a capital-intensive branch with a net debt/ebitda~ 0.5 must be seen as extremely low and healthy (other branches have higher loans, had regular dividends, lower taxes etc. for many years) .

5. As EnQuest works with assets at a mature age, it is natural that shutdowns will occur and as it is a natural element in such operations and should thus be included in deductions against EPL.

We will hear what appears when they present the energy legislation, but the focus of EnQuest will continue to be to reduce debt.

Next year we will not have a GE payment and things look much brighter.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

So far I can see have it not be any prices that fall out from the frames.
It have been some years that held prices down (as shale's era and corona) and without them do I think that the price during these years would be higher.

Even the war against Ukraine has not allowed prices to go up very much, and for 2022 the price is clearly lower than many previous years.

I have use this years price and counted back for the adjusted numbers.

The result can be seen in "key figures" and "charts".
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Dumbly,
Thanks for the links.

I post my conclusion's in new heading
(I like raw numbers and you have make me work on it since your answer) .

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Dumbly,
Great!

I'm to lazy and stupid to count that out, so how do I do?
These who look at my files deserve to see the right numbers but I also want to give the calculation.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,
I have check up the average price for oil since the begin of 2003 and it was $71,6,
Its rough numbers and dont take care about any factors.

There are factors that would be calculated on in several years when shale went the market down.
Shale era did begun with high production and low prices.
Investors did put in money to raise the production, no matter of profit.
c. 20% is a number of under-prices I've heard but other can have own thoughts.

They could do that cause they had more than three years with high prices and the investors went greed.

I thought that it would be like this here too except that the money would be directed to green investments, ccs, electrification etc and that it would be during a period of prosperity.

Time is running out and we have to hope that reason prevails (the numbers of oil will be in "key figures" next update).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Something do you know and other do you just sense.
I thought that I posted a chart earlier (with some wrong inside) but I cant find it.
Anyhow is it not wrong anymore and it is in the files who's updated.

There will not be any strike's at BP's fields as Sparrow give the workers 10% more.
https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/491272/sparrows-workers-on-bp-assets-secure-10-pay-rise-equivalent/

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Nice to try write in English again (my last post went wrong =)).
Anyone can say that water is important but nothing run without oil and our time will come.

This year is the trouble three things so far and the additional pay for GE ($50m) and the low price at oil an other.
It is also so that Hedges make negative effects.

I think something will be changed about EPL but I don't count on it and I'm sure that the price of oil will rise.
When I count -24, with less hedging, no additional payments and better price (even if I have cut a bit there ) does it looks nice.

When they introduced the EPL, they did not take into account that companies actually have a loan level that also needs to be paid and that it is not possible to calculate EPL on a debt-free basis.
Without EPL would FCF be over $400m but c.$200m goes to debt.

I understand that temporary "regulations" may be needed, but imposing tougher "sanctions" than against Russia is actually an insult to the entire profession.

However they do can I see the bright light (and higher oil prices).
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
Good luck everyone and please send me some critic.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

KO,
Witch time is it expected?

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Once again is it updated and I lay it out earlier today.
Differences is most in OGA there I have put in shortcut between the years and simplified the counting of NSTA-numbers.

Earlier when it where new wells did I put it all on Oil and had gas with differenced count but now does it count as which part of gas it is in the fields and it make the forecast more right in longer terms.
It make it easier to update too and I hope it also is easier to read.

About EPL do I think that they have to react and make it better or see dangerous decline and EnQuest as company will change its way depending what's happend.
No changes does that things must be closed with these oil prices but can be opened if the price went over $100 again.

This is a branch that need money and also have debt (as other branches) that need to get paid and if the count doesn't matching, it have to be changes.

I still believe that the price will rise when the effect of reopening China get full effect and the driving season is on and that is not far away.
Perhaps do we have some relaxations in the conditions of the EPL in place before then.

Its also time to look forward about SVT and what who will happening there and I think it is an advantage that we own c.16% of that important part and that AB can use it.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat