Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi!
Pelle,
I'll think so too but I still dont know the rules about divi's.
I'm also quite heavy in AOI and have seen the raise but compared to my Enquest investment is it a small post.
From time to another I use AOI to trade and take some out when its time to buy other shares or if Enquest dips and make super sale (as it is my ground).
I can say that AOI has helped me build up my inventory of Enquest.
Hi!
Krakenoil,
As they have the the decision that they are allowed to do buy back's, I hope that they do it as fast they can.
They can also keep on buying obligations on the market.
The rule's of when you can introducing dividends I am not familiar with so it creates a problem for me.
What do the rules look like, anyone?
Anyhow, if we just keep the value as it was at corona year, -20 (read EV, market cap + debt - cash), you'll double your money.
In other company's do I require 20% /y to invest but in this is it much higher.
Since the middle of -19 have I got my +20% in it as average but the upside have grown during that time.
I can take 20% for -23 as well but I dont think it stays there as it is with reduced risk.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I'm going to watch football for the first time tonight and I'm actually looking forward to it!
Expectations, on the other hand, are rock solid when it comes to songs, rhymes, etc. that the son almost demands that I know (like running water..)
A welcome break in everyday life and recommended to impatient shareholders and to rescue some hearts (the value will increase gradually).
The match then?
Bajen (Hammarby) - Sirius, where Bajen should win for the sake of cheerful mines...
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Elitesky,
As you know are you always welcome to my "casa" and I'll let you have more than coffee.
What I say is that you need a brake and have som fun as it isn't healthy to be worried all the time.
The time is working for us and if the value will be fixed as the value was in -20 you'll be rich next year.
Trust the numbers.
Regards/Kamrat
Continue
RBL 500
Unsec. not. (RB 11,625%) 300
RB -27 (9%) 163
RB -23 (7%) 136
SVT 8
Debt 1 107
Ebitda* (counted) 808
Debt/Ebitda 1,37
Cash 357
Net,debt 750
Net.debt/Ebitda 0,93
*Used company h1 number, $536m and add 92 days (536/181*92) to reach 30 September.
With same kind of calculation does Ebitda be $1080m at year end (my files says $1140m)
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Took the opportunity to review Moody's conditions a bit.
They have counted on numbers that do not correspond to the company's H1 number!
They manage to tip the production c. like me, somewhat low unit price maybe but fcf will be completely crazy as they don't take into account actual earned fcf, H1, of $332m.
Hence its low expectations for debt/Ebitda (yes, gross calculation) at year-end of 2.4x compared to my below calculated 1.37x.
Even Ebitda is going crazy wrong as the company in H1 had $536m and they have the year at $800m.
Okay that they want to calculate risk-adjusted and with $75 for oil, but doing it for the whole year when more than half the year has passed and the market has received its numbers is wrong.
Check my numbers instead if you want to see something serious.??
"RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's action balances the expected improvement in EnQuest's liquidity position upon successful execution of the planned refinancing transaction along with financial metrics progressively strengthening over the next 12-18 months under Moody's base case scenario.
At the same time, the rating action also reflects the uncertainty related to the refinancing because of challenging conditions of the debt capital markets. Should the refinancing not be successful, EnQuest will face debt maturities of around $0.9 billion due in a year's time.
Moody's base case scenario assumes stable production at around 48 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, average oil prices of $75/bbl for the remainder of 2022 and for 2023 and unit OpEx of $20-$22/boe.
Accordingly, EnQuest should generate Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of $800 million annually in 2022 and 2023, as well as Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $300 million and $200 million respectively despite rising cash outflows
for abandonment costs, capex and tax payments related to the recently-introduced Energy Profits Levy.
Assuming the senior unsecured notes are fully and timely refinanced and that positive FCF generation is primarily deployed towards progressive reimbursement
of pro-forma RBL drawings, Moody's projects key credit metrics to improve to levels commensurate with a potential rating upgrade, including gross debt to EBITDA declining to 2.4x by year-end 2022
and remaining within a 1.75x – 2.0x range in the medium term compared to 3.4x as at year-end 2021.
Conversely, if EnQuest does not fully refinance its outstanding senior unsecured notes then EnQuest's liquidity position would become increasingly challenging because FCF generation
and available cash balances under Moody's base case scenario would not be sufficient to redeem the retail and high-yield bonds due October 2023 at maturity. "
//To be continue
Hi!
Romaron,
We are friends and I think we will be it for ever and look forward to the next AGM as I want to visit.
Hope to see you there.
mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd,
I've earlier criticised you (with not the most kind of ways and some shoot below) for what you wrote as it looked that you act to get over cheep shares.
If it was so can only you tell but you did stop that and I'm pleased.
That kind of behaviour have I never seen from L7.
About L3 is it more complicated as I think that most of us don't dig so deep into the numbers as it hard to understand sometime.
There are challenges with different kind of trouble and when they come do the brain start to work about how to solve them in a easy way and there is L7 in his engineering role.
He don't do what most of people do, complain and say's that this ****share isn't worth ****.
There have been lot of problems, during the years, with lot of fields owned by Enquest and that can't anyone belittle.
So, with some ironic and some true you can describe most of the fields like unfortunate.
I'm pessimistic and when I say that -"this cant be worse" the optimistic one tells me happily -"yes it can"
I think they are on the ground and most of us already on way up (even me!).
I don't agree with everyone but I don't criticize every time either and think those who do it in groups often cross the line.
I'll continue l7's good work to get the files easier.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I did loose something!
The transcript: https://quartr-files.s3.eu-north-1.amazonaws.com/transcripts/EnQuest_H1_2022_transcript_16681.pdf
And of course,
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
L7,
About Magnus I'll just copy the words from Richard (Hall) from transcript:
"Notably, one of our best producers has unfortunately been impacted by this wellhead issues, but we will be working this over as soon as possible after completion of the Northwest Magnus well."
I have that onstream in November with 3,3k (I could have used rounding's but i didn't) right after the ordinary in October.
As I understand is Richard the man behind (creator) the new well and that results will be interesting as they are so positive about it and I'll think that my estimate on that (OGA in my files, 2k) is too low as they say that it replaces one drilling (if I'm not biking), Richard :"Once again I want to emphasize
that the A6 stakes effectively replaced one of our planned infill wells in the first
half."
The transcript: https://quartr-files.s3.eu-north-1.amazonaws.com/transcripts/EnQuest_H1_2022_transcript_16681.pdf
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd,
I have the best respect for L7 and I'll think you make fun of him.
As long as I've been here have he helped me with my numbers and I don't understand these who gives you thumbs for that.
Be friendly instead and tell people if their numbers are wrong so they can do right.
Be nice!
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Krakenoil (notice that I still Use Versal in the beginning),
Even me have noticed sometime that you have been out from this (regarding to what you have written).
The answer give you my thumb but it's a different view from me.
He, L3, have used my mail and asked things that no one outside should do.
I have been positive a long time about Magnus and this time I think I'm right but L3 has been right the other times.
It's a smart way to be questioning and also a little cautious.
Unfortunately, I haven't learned it myself yet
and I see that questioning is already in my numbers (hence why some people think I lift while others think I fart).
He is a shareholder.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Krakenoil,
Make an attack on L3's number instead, if you want to criticize anything.
I have BIG respect for anyone who deliver numbers, ask questions about numbers and uses good manner.
People are afraid to loose theirs money and it's a good point to respect it.
Me selves isn't got new money to put in but I'm so sure on my selves, and my numbers, that I have bought (a lot) on credit.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Pelle,
As it's complex I have to ask you to look in my files.
In my OGA-file is the count of production for -23 under -23 (that file is just to calculate the production).
Then, in my forecast file -23 is the costs and oil&gas price counted.
If you start there and come back with questions will i do the best to figure them out.
My numbers is with:
Additional pay, GE 50 000 000
Windfall tax 88 000 000
Production 18 797 500
BE 61
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I almost forgot that the outstanding 2023 GBP retail bond stub of £111.3 million is expected to be paid at maturity in cash.
(Not unexpected with the answer above)
This is what I expect in -23:
Additional pay* 50 000 000
Windfall tax 88 000 000
FCF, Year ~ 704 000 000
So I think the future is solid.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
It seems like the covenant's is no problems and that we got flexibility too.
There are no covenants I’m aware of on the 2023 GBP retail bond.
On the net debt to EBITDA covenant within the new RBL, the required ratio is indeed 3.5x. We are currently at c0.8x, so it certainly wouldn’t have made sense for us to sign up to a covenant of 0.5x.
Kind regards,
Craig
That also send out an message that the lenders feel comfortable with us and they know our strength.
I got the message late last night and I hope that Craig don't burn out in overtime.
He's sure earn the overtime-money.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi
Romaron,
Start to use capital letters in the name, you deserved it a long time ago!
Freedom* is worth a lot and you also need to see it in its entirety, as you say!
The interest expense for Enquest metrics (leverage of invested money) is good.
*(especially for shareholders who want to reach dividends)
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
L7,
I take this just short on Magnus (Vendor) so you will understand (I like questions but time's soon up for today).
The loan was paid but in calculations it's make that calc. right as they pay less to BP in H1.
The new well do I have 2k in calc. but I'm prepared to write that up (just read what they wrote about it).
For the old well with problems, do I see A diff in production that make me believe that we can have 3,3k (check OGA).
About the offloading's do I don't more than update it as I dont see it so important any more.
A normal trip is 500k and it works quite well.
It will be more interesting in -24 when something is happening there around.
I hope you have seen my small file (built like a presentation): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaVLS8Hp8EhOa-DYEJ-T7TDgmeUnTBvqDPFTx-rvBKQ/edit#gid=0
Please, criticise it.
Keep up the good work.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
L7,
Nice to see you writing here again.
I've been hard working on easier files but it seems almost impossible (the last one was great in my eyes but I miss critic on that) so my spirit says next...
About the wells on Magnus (it was three in plan) I'll think it was that they seen that refinance was possible but they wish to go thin as the payback has its month's.
Anyhow they first well is something to look forward on as it shall go onstream this month.
Its one mort thing this year (next month) and there is one of Magnus best wells who had problems with the wellhead and is soon on stream.
Have a great day.
Regards/Kamrat