Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

AIMOilking,

I agree with Stevo12.

Deal officially underway where EnQuest is expected to take over Serica in a so-called reverse takeover.

The experts on discord assume that the split will be c. 45% / 55% with Serica as the majority owner.

The deal would create a company with 5-6 years of extra fcf of c. $180m in fcf thanks to the tax credits.

As I understand it, Serica has just over $2bn in tax credits which is almost on par with EnQuest's c. $2.7bn.

Its net debt is c. $71 compared to $386 for EnQuest which is an advantage.

A purchase after market valuation gives a distribution of 30% - 70% but that is compared to a dividend-paying company and will not happen.

A more likely scenario is the above, especially since some of it will be in cash.

My own thoughts on a possible deal are that Veri should be valued in context and that EnQuest should also be valued (due diligence) for a reasonable valuation (alternatively wait until E is also paying dividends).

The deal surprised me as I expected something regarding Kraken first followed by a deal with Harbour but I do not rule out that one or some of these will not be implemented.

All other things being equal and if Amjad drives through any deal it will be to our advantage even if the seller gets their share.

A deal would be welcome if we got what we want.

We will simply have to see where it ends up.

Many thanks to Malu!

Best Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

I'm understand that you're disappointed of what will come but you have some wrong and small differences make it bigger.

For -25 is the savings around $49m, cause it started in 1/4 -25, and for -26 is it c. $64m.

The count is based on 50% tax on lease savings but the company have said between 40-50% so it is a upside!

The production will raise in booth -25 and -26 and you are free to criticise my productionfile if you want.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f5HeabHGD6X3LByuOcebN1Cru64VaNu5BLsfJzJsgZ8/edit?usp=sharing

Look also at the trigger file.

I have wrote some lines to followers and use this page to reach them: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f5HeabHGD6X3LByuOcebN1Cru64VaNu5BLsfJzJsgZ8/edit?usp=sharing

Its free to look and I upgraded it (and send it) today but have already started for next time.

Just klick on the three dots on the right upside and choice translate (it is on Swedish).

I have wrote about how I see at EnQuest and I hope to see divi's in range of $35m- $52m so I'm quite happy.

I also see better production i coming year when Dewa goes on etc.

Best Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

Yes, it is almost the same deal that Harbour left in may -24, but the question is why they did it.

I think that they got a better deal with EnQuest (their UK fields for sale).

Anyhow does this very much to secure profit in short term and I'm happy.

Best

Kamrat

Hi!

Dumbly,

It is net and the oil is premium (c.$10 /boe) against brent.

Kamrat

Hi!

L7,

Great to see you again, I'm not here so often as I need (to make me better writing in English).

I have gone back to BE-calculation, actually fcf/boe, to make it easier over time as it is too many changes and differences in guiding and no numbers from the company about EPL-numbers.

If the company not go well will it lose some costs and it if goes well will they use some extra money on things.

I took the -20 fcf/boe as a start (c. $10) and from that I draw epl-taxes.

The savings from lease is In two parts, 50-50, there one part is taxfree and the other is taxed by EPL (actually the IR said it is between 40% and 50% who is taxed).

The savings do I put out on production for the year.

Fcf /boe for -24 to -26 give me 6,36, 11,70 resp. 11,23 (the $20m putted on -25 and -26 is that I think they will put more on tax-reducing things).

Both the investment in Magnus during -24 and lease savings make -25 better than -24.

The question is if it right to use -20 number and that's not sure, the model doesn't take care about any tax-reducing things for -24, but I think it will be higher and my numbers to be bigger.

The year results will tell and the model will be calibrated to show better numbers.

Let's hope for a great -25

Best regards,

Kamrat

Hi!

ukbbbbbb,

For me is it too late for January..always take a excuse as a good excuse.

Best regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Steelwatch,

I'm impressed of your takes, keep going.

The weather (waves) isn't the best in the area so I dont think the load will be over before the 10th.

Best

Kamrat

Hi!

Bassoonplayer,

Is they stopped?

Isn't it just the rule of buying when it goes up who put a stick in the wheel?

Kamrat

Hi!

Congratulations to ukbbbbb, who took a 7th place and won £39.

It not much enough to pay big Bill but I hope he feel good about it.

This year will also be with a competition, Tävling -25, and it will be 5 winners who con take a little bigger part of the pot.

My files are updated and knowing things is inside them: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15T-SxbaQn455UP81tiKynmSt68Q-S7CgLNusoFy4T6o/edit?usp=sharing

I hope to see more competitors and its free to participate.

Best Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

If you think that co2-tax will disappear, don't read more!

CDP numbers are from the company and nothing else and they say that over 25 years the cost of the project will be approx. 1.2 billion USD and the income between 5 and 12.5 billion USD, 200-500 million USD on average every year.

Check you selves:

Go to cdp, CDP is an environmental site where c.23,000 companies are registered and the information is public but must not be processed in any way.

There, companies are rated environmentally based on their own submitted data.

https://www.cdp.net/en

Register and then search on EnQuest.

Check in the file -23 climate changes under point C2.4a.

There are costs and lifetime profits for Wind, CCS, Hydrogen, the SVT conversion and SVT electricity to other platforms, which is being investigated and is not priced.

Veri will have value soon, imo, and also EnQuest.

Happy New Year

Kamrat

Hi!

The new files are based on what the company does for fcf/boe and are based on the corona year 2020.

The company will cut costs if things go bad and if things go well they will spend more (probably in tax cuts) so it's easier to count on a base income, even if it doesn't capture the upside.

If you get a base income of $6/boe, you get c $82m in fcf for -24.

-25, when leasing becomes lower they have to pay tax for c. 40% - 50% of the savings as it counts as an interest component.

I have calculated with 50% and the saving for -25 will be approx. 41 million dollars.

With the same events in -25 as -24 you will have c. $80m + $41m = $121m as fcf.

But we know they are putting some extra green capex on Magnus to reduce CO2, so it will probably be a bit more.

-26, full effect from leasing will add c. $13 million more than -25

The files make it possible to have a longer perspective with more years and are so simple that changes are facilitated.

Files:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xC6uR5Kp0mYOGLzcDzQ0_jXB5dObdSmoygitp5hU04E/edit?usp=sharing

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone.

Hi!

I guess we will have 100% at Kraken soon.

//Kamrat

Hi!

L7,

Long time no see..

Not fun to have smolk in the cup, but unfortunately it's a little less.

Of the savings, c. 50% is correct while the other part will be taxed.

For -25 the total savings will be c. $48,316,480 and for the remaining lease term c. $64,129,146 /year.

Best

Kamrat

Hi!

Nm2,

Just like Ko wroted earlier is he in good health.

There is nothing interesting to write right now and other things "pulls".

I was in touch with him Yesterday.

Best/Kamrat

Hi,

AIM...,

The title is wrong cause it will not slow down, it will stop.

The company have been clean in their contact, its not time for take debt down, its time to maximize the money.

Returns is high up on their list and I suppose that AB want some pay after all these years.

One of that point will be by EOR at Kraken and that what we got today.

We hope that they bought something to reach the tax money.

My number of EPL is probably to high and the company doesn't give It as that could make that a profit forecast could be made and they don't want that.

Have a nice day/

Kamrat

Hi!

AIM...

Its under finance, row 86 for both H1 and H2.

Have you looked at CDP?

A lot of things before -30 and thistle will be first with ccs.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Is EnQuest a buy?

Yes, in my eyes (if you got cash).

Check in https://www.cdp.net/en and look for climatechanging -23 at point C2.4a.

It is very interesting numbers about the future.

CDP is an environmental site where c.23,000 companies are registered and the information is public but may not be processed in any way.

There, companies are rated environmentally based on their own submitted data.

My files: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CFTWARpQ9O5Wqf-0G9OWFPUhDRK0qTMQoJpOOyhiFOQ/edit?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Mansardman,

I'll hope this willdo the work: https://12ft.io/https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695150-global-oil-market-we-are-potentially-weeks-away-from-moment-of-truth

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

AIMOilking,

You'll have it the same day as AGM.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

ukbbbbbb,

Thank you for your generous contribution and good luck in the competition.

If you join the discord, it will be easier to keep in touch.

The pot is now up to £477 and the total is approaching a table change from 5 winners to 8.

Which table it will be will not show until the end of the year when the amount invested is in shares and the value varies with the share price.

If the value is big enough, it can even be changed to the table with 10 winners!

The last day of the competition is Friday, March 8.

Regards/Kamrat