Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Himmatsj,
I can't either say what they will do but I can show prices and when it should be new lease-time.
Leasing of Bumi Armada Kraken from April -25
Now Fee /year: 115 114 853
From April -25 /year: 35 989 475
For me does it look attractive with the lower costs but there are other things that matter too (if they want to electrify for an example and I dont now how a swivel works with all other stuff in place).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
I think you're both right and wrong.

As they have said earlier can EP be a beginning at Bressay and on that field is I'm not sure if it possible with jack-up-drill rig, but I think that they want to have that and electricity.
I'm not sure what the future of gas as fuel will be looked at!
With EPL ending after -28, the investment will be done before.

At Bentley is it sure what they had planning and there do I think it is easier to (almost) follow the plane.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

This case have changed to an oil price case but the oil price will raise.
Supply is lower than demand and that will be shown!
That inventory levels are reduced only makes it more likely for a higher price than in my estimates.

I have bought a small post but I'd had preferred a large (out of money).
Intend to increase during the upswing as my credit rating improves (buying on collateral).

At forecast -23 have I modelling the value without the last pay for GE to get a fair valuation.
The prices have been updated with reduced price in near time.

I have added forecast -24 and the bes about it is that it is easier to see effect of -23 drilling.
I'm glad I got this done as I have been and will be very busy for some time to come.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

3dartfinish,
I was hard trying to update parts and inform doing that at discord.
No success for my head.

Now am I in a better position and can put out what I got.
On GE is all three wells producing wells and on Magnus is it two producers and one injector.
In the forecast have I put it in OGA-file but it is also an overview of production in "easy -23" (stand alone).
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

The old well on Magnus did got online in November, hided by the new well who they got online in October and I put it to history.

It seems like the Malaysian wells (2) also got online, in December, hidden by compressor-problems.
Problems are there to be solved!

Now we just have to wait for the price and production to raise and I'm sure they will (there is a lot of argument on that).

For me will it be time to make "Forecast -24" and try to make it easier.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have updated and wrote what I have done in "update -23".
I have delayed wells both on Magnus and in Malaysia.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

More update to come next week.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

The file: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Hi!

ukbbbbbb,
I'm sorry to make you disappointed but I haven't got my force at wft -22 but it will be what they have planned and that does we not know.

I cant agree less about take costs in -23, pay more tax in -22, is the better way and some of the activities around YE look like the have done it.

There is a guy at Discord (Goatstar) who presented a easy file with great opportunities when you want to show the case in a easy way with easy changed oil price.
I have worked with it in two days, first to present it with necessary changes, and make another file to add and I named it "Easy -23".
Do you feel comfortable with it?

The last time have it exploded with flights and this year looks like it can erase the old record.

With mid-cycle oil price at $70 do we have Ebitda c. $900m and that make net.debt at $450m to reach ~0,5 target so it isn't far away.
But I don't think that mid-cycle price will be that low.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

1. I have done some changing in the files and the biggest part is that the alternative is gone but it was just there to show the effect of green capex.

2. The name of the files is now EnQuest 95, depending on that the year-price have fallen after that I adjust down mainly gas.
I still believe in 100 but I dont want to be on the wrong side!

3. I have take down green capex in the forecast as I believe, after my last answer from IR, that they will go carefully forward and reduce debt more.
The oil price is the key to shareholders return in the short term and, imo, do we need to reach net.debt $500m.

4. As the cost for capex will be an amount have I stopped counting at /barrel.

5. I had missed to add some leasing cost into the epl-counting so it will be a bit lower.

It seems that fcf can be around $375m, anyhow in my file, but the update will tell more and that is history at weekend or early next week!
The share still have an great upside despite epl but will affect planning of investments

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Have a great week, folks.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Mrc..,
Thanks for the answer.
That news seems to have been angled.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Mrc..,
I look at in a different view there I today can see that they will invest in Orion project https://cld.bz/Hnu6h1w/20/

I'm sure they will do it with profit but I'm not convinced that they will invest in fields they dont own today in NS.
I dont understand the taxes in UK if there is differences between company's with only small part there but i f I understand this right does BP and Shell just pay 19% tax in UK while we and other domestic company have 30% + 10%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60295177

I dont think that could work in Sweden by the Competition Authority.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,
Our share in SVT is 15.1% and it is not a large part to bear in case of investment and we will get rent for the land.

The only thing I wonder about is who will pay the bill, but there will be many investors in the project and AB (with its experience) will make sure that we are on the profitable side.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ko,
I'll think that the production can give a help on the road.

OGA say's that December is c. 52k but that's not reached by the mass.
January, with added wells, will be better than that!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Mrc..,
You can interpret it in different ways.

An ambition is precisely an ambition and in this case a long-term one that they reach a few months later.

My interpretation is that it is free forward as they reached net.debt/Ebitda ~0.5 and in my papers they do so in February (0.525 YE).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Voice...,
As you see in the files do I expect higher price but lower production in H2 (depending above all on maintenance).

The higher price is caused by lower production in the world with these low price we have now and I can see an upside on my price numbers.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Mrc...,
My Ebitda is over 1200 and I'm sure that they can announce it if they want at the update.

We have not got the right price on the oil at the last time but the production in December was 51,8 (oga-numbers) and for
January and February do I expect an average of 53k.

You can see it as simply as they did do when it was a hard time paying loans: -We can sell a cargo early.
If they want to give shareholder returns do I think that they can do it anytime after February as they reach ~0,5 net.debt/Ebitda but if they go for mid-time-cycle (oil price 70, ebitda 800) do we have to wait until July-August.

It's an interesting time ahead...

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have looked on numbers of this and here they are...
1 991 $ net.debt -17
637 $ net.debt prognosis -22
1886 Shares
0,72 $ reduced net.debt /share
1,21 GBP/USD
0,60 £ reduced net debt /share

Interesting numbers

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Mrc...
I think that you have right about the damage of changing in a branch with long term cycle.
How much will maybe be shown when we can see the 33rd license round and company have to been seen by their attitude to the market.

About that chilt, or stanley whatever name he use, jumps around with hopeful solutions, do I have to say that it is a lot of things who needs for energy in the future.
At https://kata-ana.com/ , do I take with me that batteries have to be much easier, cheaper and better even if that firm doesn't make it.
But it is interesting to read.

Using tides with turbines brings many challenges and it is large forces that often destroy the equipment.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi folks!

I' have been occupied in south Sweden to make up my son's apartment before it shall be sold so I have missed a lot here.

The oil price have been to low for a short time and that will be shown after a while at producents that are fast will slow down drillings and that will push the price higher.
I must say that I still believe in an average price at $100 this year and that this dip only make the later price higher.

I dont feel specially popular as I dont, in moment like this, lowering my numbers and when it is on the contrary, with higher price, keep the numbers.

But I dont want to be popular, I want to get right.
Its dont easy to get right, as my price used to be to low and I use market signs to see a floor price as an balancing point, as I cant see any top price.

OGA numbers are in place and the only bigger change in the files are that I have changed the way of counting used/flared gas to a easier way for me and that it can be updated monthly with the other numbers.
I shall update the flights also but these numbers do I live.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
(save the link and give it some critic, please)

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
It's not easy to try hang on the hope with news like this: https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.energyvoice.com%2Foilandgas%2Fnorth-sea%2F478021%2Fnorth-sea-windfall-raises-less-than-expected%2F
It was posted at discord by Malu.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
I was so disappointed when they farmed it out that I dumped my notes of it.

I'm very careful about that they can do anything with it but you're all right about the hub who will fall in near future without any more around.
You give me some hope and I like that.

Regards/Kamrat