Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi!
I don't write with main purpose that you shall read the update.
On the top at right is it a link to support Ukraine.
There is also some links that Swede's can use but I'm not sure of other links that can be useful.
Do you have a good link, please write to me at kamrattarmak@gmail.com and I will get it posted.
Me and family have donated c. £400 and I hope that more people can do the same after their conditions.
Every cent have a mean but for them is it much higher, its freedom!
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
MrBuster,
If you instead looked at the price in Singapore (forget 20 ports) as it is there Krakenoil is been sold.
Its correct that API on the oil is 6,47 but some of it does not reach Enquest.
My selves count on VLSFO straight on, API 6,78, and that gives a deduction of c. 5%.
Everyone have their theory how to count and you may have to find your way.
But use 20 ports and 6,47 you will reach too high.
The trip to Singapore is not especially expensive than Rotterdam counted as $/b.
I did count on that earlier and got surprised of differences between buoy loaders and tankers daily costs.
Good luck,
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Elitsky,
You're man of honour.
I always write as I wasn't hide behind a nickname and can stand up of it.
As you know my name I can tell that I'm live in Salem, near Stockholm.
If you have the roads past, take a coffee brake at my "casa", you are always welcome.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Therapist,
It seemes that Kraken do well.
That Torill Knutsen is set for today at 17.00 is written.
I myself have written 26/2 at 6.00 with departure 27/2 at 9.00 due to the weather.
If my numbers go in, the indication is 34k / d, it is likely that some oil was left at the latest when it indicated 27k / d.
That is, the Kraken runs smoothly and nicely??.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I read a lot of s**t today and want it to be a better place!
A vice guy told me that my forecast was a bit moderately and I think it still that.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
I have add calculate, and its have a following-up about the flights.
You can naturally check flightradar https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics , its my source, but my number is unique as I show 2018 - 2022 with a forecast and they dont show -18 and -19.
I just saw that its hard to enter there right now.
About the situation can I just say that its unbelievably about the attack.
When USA is open the shorts will fall and OP go up but its not without a bad feeling to make profit on it.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
who's afraid of us oil?
To get to the top numbers below -19, an incredible amount was drilled -18 and I have taken it from my memory that there were just over 20,000 new wells.
Until today, it has been free drillers with limited opportunities who accounted for the limited increase during the autumn, while the large ones went according to plan to keep production or rise it at maximum 5%.
During the pandemic, a number of millions of horsepower were scrapped to hydraulically crack the wells and these are expensive pieces.
Lots of service companies were also shut down around fracking, so those who do not have it "in house" have little opportunity to influence much.
Oil extraction in the USA is divided into 5 parts (Pad) and consists of 36 places including GOM and WC offshore.
Of these places, until May -21, it has only increased to a greater extent on Perm.
Of the 36 places, 5 account for 70% of US production and of these, only Perm and New Mexico have done well.
At least one of the other 3 suffers from "sponginess" which is due to the boreholes being too close to each other and / or that the horizontal wells have been drilled too far and that production can not be maximized, which leaves more oil when the well is abandoned.
Many of the outside of the big five are scattered and have suffered from transport options, etc., but current prices can keep them longer.
Once a hub with a number of wells starts to go bad and fewer people have to share the costs of the infrastructure, it can go fast.
Personally, I had in 2020 predicted that there would be fewer places -2025 -26 and I still think so due to the high costs.
Even the fact that conventional fields will open after that i think the price of oil will probably still be fairly high in 2027-28.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/pdf/full_report.pdf
The USA has many small producers with a low number of barrels / d and the amount means that when it is time to close a well due to the price, many will close.
Conclusion: they need to launch 27 wells / d to reach 10,000 a year and double that to reach -18 digits.
I'm not afraid!
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Stupmy,
I know that's the message was for KO and just wanted to say what I stand for.
If we concentrate of the historic, I should say that we wouldn't be on this spot if it wasn't for AB.
The company exist cause of c. 14% average of increased production and that average is after the virus.
I don't think we should been here without him.
Just now is we in a very good position and I expect great numbers caused by the premium on both Kraken and Seligi.
There are a part of that Q4 did it numbers.
Be happy.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Stupmy,
Since the virus start I had to sell in some moments, as I'm mortgaged, and the bank demanded it.
As the situation is right now, in the storages, will it be a splendid place to be in.
In this year will it be lack of oil and you can think that the oilprice is high just for Ukraine, but its not.
I think they must have oil from Iran but its far from enough.
The price dont reflect the inventories.
Good luck.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
squif,
As you can see, I spell your nickname with a small S. and in order for it to change, you need to earn it.
Krakenoil only replied to the message and explained his view and I respect that.
To exclude someone due to age, origin, education, etc. I despise.
It does not matter to me if it is a stupid picky teenager or someone who just wants to air the thought pattern.
If I can help the person in question, it feels good to me!
I also answer emails if the questions are relevant.
In order for more people to understand, I am writing an answer to your thoughts, as it is not really questions!
You write:
Many people use gut spreadsheets to connect their backs. Tarmak has been predicting 60p and dividends for over a year now.
Newsflash everyone - we are now below 21p and there is no dividend. 7.5 years Candy valuation of sp
For your part, a few well-chosen questions would have been enough for me, and I would have tried to explain.
To start from some value, I calculate it from the possible distribution of a part from fcf.
As there is probably no dividend this year, those figures can be seen as some kind of benchmark for which direction the price will move during the year (you never know when it will move).
The newest forecast is only for the year when I have not had time for next year yet, but then the situation will be different as it does not need to be amortized in the same way as now.
If you look in the same way I do, it will be a reasonable oil price for a few years and Enquest's opportunities to keep production.
Together with the tax deductions, it is a very favorable environment for Enquest.
Belt for you, earn a big S and good luck.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Krakenoil,
As your name suggests, you must like Enquest even if it is the swings that take you further.
It is the wrong person you are attacking to increase the oscillations. Give yourself to a weaker opponent (eg Sqiuf), and question his interest and why he does not squeeze pimples instead of "hanging" here.
He is impressionable!
My own view on Enquest is that the future is mainly in the fields Golden Eagle with good development opportunities, Seligi (with its gas), PM409 (test drilled no later than November -23 by agreement) and Bressay which can be started with small funds without major impact of fcf and its opportunity to distribute dividends (one bet pays for the next development).
In addition, the plans for Magnus are robust at the same time as Kraken's field life is extended with the opening of Bressay (and / or Bentley).
If something is to be bought, it must be something that, due to mismanagement, has gone down a lot in recent years and then also paid low for.
With a solid upside containing diving stock agreements for falling oil prices, it may be worth it.
It is still the buyers' market and those who set the price.
A can opener in Malaysia is the gas and that could also be a opener for PM409.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I´ve been study some maps around Seligi and they have infrastructure in place (two pipes for gas and one for oil) if it will be any agreement with Petronas.
About the gas in NS so is the third party gas buy and sold with not any big charges but the facts is still there.
At -21 did we get about 45% of the oilprice and in H1 -21 did we get around 65% (thats sales and easy to check).
That is with all gas they have for sale including third party gas.
My number for -22, just taken from the air (70%) can be higher and I dont think that I´m to high with that as the prices have been going up.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
L7,
211/12b is not being drilled this year so you shall just see it as a opportunity for another year until they say anything else.
There are not any commercial agreements with Petronas yet about the gas.
Lets hope that Eagle get solved in some way soon (not Golden Eagle).
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Romaron,
It was steeling of Aloj to take my number.
May the flies of 1000 camels visit he´s armpits.
As I see it should that number being mine in two ways.
1.My number of birth
2. That I have been trained by HMH
Happy to hear that its easy enough to understand.
When times go by and the forecast price changes to real numbers, it gets better than this.
Mansardman,
I was hoping for criticism and I prefer the bad ones.
Only those who lead forward.
Happy spring everyone,
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
As it is hard to do long-termed things in the oil branch have I do another new forecast and only for -22.
I hope that I get response if anything would be better in other way.
Its only one file broken down by focus.
The forecast is $80 for Brent and for premium oil is it in fact + forecast Brent + 7% for Tapis and + 15% for VLSFO.
Name: half year -22
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
Enjoy!
Edit: see the shown value at bottom with some irony (that's my intention).
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Tigar,
I have seen some of your post and like them and that also why I understand that Vendor did go first and then the share.
That did not make me to present it in a proper way but I know it.
Due to the company's reservations regarding tax deductions, I do not know how to relate to them. They still said they did not know if BP had any claims.
L7,
Thanks for your thought, its always useful.
I've being occupied with creating simple forecast but its hard to take the rumbling in gas, premium and how to count with hedges when I want to do it in H1 and H2.
Pelle,
I think that it will blow off earlier with the gas-price but the future will tell.
TimTimebomb,
It was bought on a long contract, and, taken only from memory,I think it goes out during -23.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi,
I missed a part, The production detailed.
Production
Boepd
Krak 17 500
Magnus 13 000
Golden Eagle 9 000
Scolty etc 3 500
Malaysia 8 000
Show'n numbers 51 000
Shrinking & PSC 2 910
Boepd 48 090
Tot. year 17 552 850
Cut off numbers
H1
Seligi PSC Adjustment 30,00%
2 400
Sorry /Kamrat
Hi,
It was something that make money the last Q and it wasn't great production.
I should say that the premium on both Seligi and Kraken is a part and of course the gas.
Historical have the gas and Kraken being paid by discount of Brent and for a moment did Kraken got a huge premium as the rules wanted less sulphur but it almost disappeared while corona.
now the stocks are far below what they were before the virus and premiums back while the gas rushed.
I have not checked the gas price but it is at 70% of Brent in this calc. (please give me some useful links).
I have no trouble to see fcf ~ $420m for -22 with op 75 and think that this year will be great as I think the price will be higher.
Here are my numbers of the year and I hope you all enjoy them.
Income statement
Price / % Income
Hedged 8 600 000 78 670 800 000 Secured income with hedge at $78
Not hedged 8 952 850 75 473 994 188 With poo average $75
VLSFO 15,00% 71 859 375
Gas (15%) 2 632 928 70,00% 138 228 694
Seligi 7,00% 15 330 000
Revenue-22 1 370 212 256
Opex 430 000 000
Finance 210 000 000
Ebitda 730 212 256
Sharing BP 65 953 000
Capex/Abex 240 000 000
FCF 424 259 256
Calculations
Kraken premium Seligi premium
Boepd 17 500 Boepd 8 000
Days 365 Days 365
Ordinary OP 75,0 Ordinary OP 75,0
+ VLSFO 15,00% + Tapis 7,00%
Op 86,25 Op 80,25
Rev 71 859 375 Rev 15 330 000
Magnus sharing BP
Boepd 13 000
Days 365
Op 75,0
Revenue 355 875 000
Opex 120 000 000
Capex 60 000 000
Sharing Bp 37,50%
Total 65 953 000
About VLSFO: it is betveen 17-25 API, 6,60 - 6,96 b/mt. and 6,68 as average.
Kraken's API is 6,47.
Good luck!
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Something went wrong, sorry, so use this instead.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tng3egJOrQeoZ2MAWO0x2qSdZchTJtVsv_5Y0LVYkig/edit?usp=sharing
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
January2,
I'm not impressed about Magnus performance, and not either comfortable with only use one month as start but here is my calc's.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tng3egJOrQeoZ2MAWO0x2qSdZchTJtVsv_5Y0LVYkig/edit?usp=sharing
Its easy to say that decline will have numbers of the plan but Kraken will have a flatter path than the original plan as it haven't delivered yet.
I count with 10% all over and 4v shot down for maintenance.
Regards/Kamrat