Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Questforoil,
It doesn't matter if they put another 50m on the market (c. 136k boepd) as the production will drop more in the same time.
There will not be any drill baby, drill...
Sensibly they should fill it now (while they can do it cheaply) and support their oil industry.
I dont think he's going to get another chance...

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo 12 and all,
I did do a copy of the files with other price just to take off a bit of fear about low prices.
It's placed next to the ordinary now but I want you to know that I don't see that price realistically for more than a couple of months because it inhibits drilling and that's most easily seen in the shale industry.

I'll will take that away soon but I also want you to know that I care about your fear.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo 12,
Thanks for the critic and I will explain what I have done to solve it.

1. About the calculation with vendor H1 -22 was that a part who was paid in H2 -21.
The prepaid part did lowering BP-sharing at H1 -22 and that's the reason why it is in the calc.

2. I imported wrong number to the box so it was a human default, thanks for let me know.
Another part about the interest is that all money who's not planned do I place at loan payment and that's not what I think so it will be some changes when they guiding what to do (and cost) for -23.
If they having early drills will some of the invest giving back a bit this year so we will see what happening.

3. I did have done count off $50m for GE in the fcf box of H2 -23.

About the oil price do I think that I have it.
I have seen GS and other financials go from one point to another in several years and now they are pessimistic.
It is two big things holding price back at moment:
China's lock-in and the value of the dollar.
You have seen the top of the dollar and china doesn't matter as there are not big builts as it normally is at this time of year.
If the lock-in will be scrapped there will be chaos with the prices, i'll think.

The strong dollar make it just now expensive to developing countries and keep them on saving mode.

There is so much to say about it but i'll think i'm right about the price.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I think that the old files where a bit sprawling so I'd make new.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Don't look negatively at what epl costs, but see what's left afterwards.
If it is that all epl for -22 (even H1) shall be paid soon is my number for the year $16m too low.
I hope that I can get some critic of it and some respond about it.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

mrc,
Yes, it is OGA-data and I use the word "used gas" in my files for flared or reinjected gas.
For Magnus is that part flared.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

mrc,
You will have that automatically around -25 as that is the time for Seligi's gas to be called.

Why not now?
In this time they dont have use for the gas in that area (if they dont start to export).

In that time can they also started production at pm409.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

mrc,
It looked like this in H1 at Magnus:

produced 2 414
Used 273
Paid 2 141
11,30%
So around 11% was flared.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Despite some delays with new wells etc, my guidance remains at 48.2k boepd for the full year thanks to good performance in new wells.
In that is not any more gas counted (as the capacity is higher) but its good to have a upside.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

The value today is c. $543m (c. £448m)

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

24 januari,
I suppose you mean fcf.

It's if you don't count in legal case and wft.
I have $620m before the count off and $520m include... it's crazy.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

mrc,
You are too optimistic.

They will have a higher capacity so its not all new production.
M y estimate for -22, 2 155 boepd of gas ~ 0,7865 mmboe /y.
Capacity will grow to 1,387 mmboe, so c. 0,6mmboe /y higher.

That is good news anyway.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I'm very pleased with the update.
Magnus is doing 1k better than my estimates.
Higher capacity for gas was a surprise .
Lower costs is telling me why my estimates (who uses former guided numbers) are too low.
The production, 46,5k, will be higher as the effect of new wells will work on longer time and we will have a great spring.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,
I'm calm too.

If you counting a number, before deduction for capex, that shall be taxed around 300-350 (with 35%) you need to have invest between $230-$270 in capex (+abex) to get low tax.
So $305m-$345m, including abex, needs to be invested and I don't see it as an obstacle with fcf (before epl) of +$500m as you still have a part of fcf to use with reducing debt and other things ( my fantasy can use it anyway).

Ok, there is a part that's not will be deducted as I dont really understand but we will figure that out (or someone else) but we doesn't have touch the company's possibility either.
Take new drilling installation on GE, you have the deprecation of five years and use it with pay it in that time, that just use 1/5 of the cost /year so you have more fcf left that year.
There must be a lot of things like that to put some money in and I dont exclude anything.

When investing in drilling you also got more production so its not all bad (EPL), but it's forced, so it's easy to hate.
I'll think that this will be good as we are in a good position (as we don't have to deduct so much debt but there is other company's who's not there and I'm sorry for them.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I've counted on H2 -23 and landed on c. $26m.
I suppose that the rest will be around that number too so maybe $52m in EPL for Enquest.
That's a lot better than I guided before and it's thanks' to IR who guided how to count.

I'll be back when I can show the numbers.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

There is not far away from what I posted the other day and I only have to do some small changes.
This doesn't do anything big on my view on Enquest as it is so cheap.

About the hedges, 1750m b with floor and rof ($77) for -23, I'm sure that they solve it and the other part of hedge did they talked about only floor.

*Damed, I cant be in several places all time, I'd have to focus on the changes now, so have a nice day.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

ukbbbbbb,
Thanks', it keeps me warm =)
It is important with feedback.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

TWalbyoff,
Even if Pelle did it first and I'm late can I confirm he's number, ebitda around 1bn (Iv'e got it just over).

What I think about stresstest...useless, that number cant be seen for longer time than a couple of month in any case I see.
In normal when it have been a big drop in oil price it have felled for just a short time (2-3 months) and then moved up to a survive level and then further and it have been drops because of oil inventory.

This time is the survive level higher (you see it when production drops on quite high level) and the oil inventory is very low.
If you see that inventory is rising on month basis you'll have to look at it one more time.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have worked on new files and they are ready now: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
Of course, I will also answer any questions (if I can).

Due to the strong dollar, the estimates are lowered, although I believe in a higher price in the future.
I would like to be low in order to increase the estimates during the year but do not rule out a temporary lowering but will use inertia to not "jump around" as many pundits (GS etc.) do.

Also corrected the EPL by calculating it without interest costs and with 35%.
In addition, with the right capex / six months.

Good luck.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,
Convicted innocent but found wft, you will get your pint (doesn't answer to Pelle).
However, my ancestry is from Belgium (the Walloons) and Finland and you are condemned to drink it in my company.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
I'll think so too but I still dont know the rules about divi's.

I'm also quite heavy in AOI and have seen the raise but compared to my Enquest investment is it a small post.
From time to another I use AOI to trade and take some out when its time to buy other shares or if Enquest dips and make super sale (as it is my ground).

I can say that AOI has helped me build up my inventory of Enquest.