Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Updated with the addition of -23 : https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

I have cut both the oil price price and the share of possible dividend ratio from 25% to 20% of FCF, but still the possibly dividend in my forecast does not fall below 5p.
For the course, the forecast says 66.2p, which is broadly in line with "Aloy's" number in Romaron's challenge.

But I think that my forecast in the oil price is far too low so if have to be a dip to reach it.
The production number for -22 and -23, how it is counted, is in "production" and for -23 have I counted with 2 new wells at Magnus and 1 at GE but that will probably be more.

Have a nice week and don't forget to save the link,

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stupmy,
If you draw the TA-line in to page 10 in this you're sure will buy more!
https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Presentations/Sell_side_meeting_slides_-_May_2019.pdf

Eagle had a drill plan before the virus and with the situation we are in now do I think it will be drilled.
The question is how much will it be for us.
62mmbbls STOIIP and ready target!

If you move back a page, you'll see that The infrastructure for Seligi's gas is on place.
Good luck,

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

NorthernMonkey,
At first I honoured you with big letters and took away the number 2 (you're no 1 in my view).

Global total flights is higher than -19 since February and the commercial flights has had a one-month slump but is clearly above -21's curve.
Both -18 and -19, which was a record year, are higher, but the trend leading up to the Ukraine war and China's lockdown looked good.

Flight radar does not have -18 and then it is an advantage when comparing to check in "Calculate" among my files:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

In end of July do I think we can see how the year will end between the fingers.

Keep on...

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
You may thought that my spreadsheet was nice but you didn't understand it, Its me to blame!

I did wrote in Swedish, "snitt", when it would been written "Average year" and I'll think you looked at Dec. nr.
Kraken average row 53, -22 is 18.674 boepd (brut 25.779) and for -23, row 110, 16.438 boepd.
For magnus is my year number for -22 resp. -23 12.923 boepd and 15.259 boepd.

So our numbers of Kraken is similar and I hope that you have right about Magnus.

Have a nice evening.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
Thanks for the critic, its necessary for ongoing things to be better.

I'm know what the plan say about the decline and your numbers are correct, see page 47. https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/statements_reports_presentations_and_general_PDFs/131115CapitalMarketsDay.pdf

Its some differences from the plan who make it believable to think that it will be a flatter view of the curve and that is that this year, by the plan, would it reach 85 342 061 (that's -21 but Kraken did start one year late) totally from Kraken.
In my own plan, I have one but its not presentable yet, will we reach 62 139 695 this year.
Its the first 6 year of production and the decline last year would not be that high without the problems they had.

When they guiding they include maintenance in that and its easy to think wrong about it.

I have a lot (for me) to do but I'm hope that I can present my plan with curves in a near future.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Seav,
The problem with mentioning the production flat at 40k is that some may see it as if that is where the production will be located and then it will be wrong all the way.

The effect of this year's drilling will be best seen when all wells have been opened and up to -23 years of maintenance.

For example, I have 58k / d in December this year, but still the annual production stays at c. 51k, which is explained by the big stops at Kraken and Magnus this summer.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14UzcEFiU7EotoOFpJskZ9hMKCI0ToB-LdM0OnGFcJwk/edit?usp=sharing

From the time the maintenance is done onwards, production will increase and the guidance for -23 will be clearly higher.

Feel free to question the numbers with justification as to why!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Auson,
0.159 stands for the number of 1000 litres /barrel and I count Kraken on API 14 which gives 6.47 barrels / ton.

What you get, however, is another matter and there I count on the same price as VLSFO (API 6.78).
The total price will of course be higher as Krakenoljan can be diluted to the right API and does not need any expensive refining, but intermediaries also want some balance (the freighters) and that it certainly needs more quality control than refined.
The instalments at the beginning of the year gossip about decent pay despite the hedges.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Auson,
I have to let you count by you selves (so you learn) but I give you the formula and explanation.
This is to calc. VLSFO (Middle API 21, is it higher or lower is it paid more or less).
Barrels /ton (VLSFO = 17-25)
API
21 + 131,5 = 148,5
/
141,5 + 0,159 = 22,4985
´=
6,78
The difference between 131,5 and 141,5 represent 10 API in the formula.

Now use Krakens API instead of "21" and come back to tell the answer.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Some are afraid of loans but not the company or me, so why?
The answer is in the file: "The car (which pays for itself)"
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Its something to have in mind when there is discussions about it.

The files is updated and, as I used to say, criticise it.
I'm sure its some wrong about the gas (but it did fit the numbers of -21.
The direction is clear anyway ...this will fly.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

MSM,
The average production since -20 is 11 873 boepd.
If you only look at -21 is it 9 406 boepd until the close.

They must have had major problems with their fpso when they shut it down, I would say.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Therapist,
Thanks for your thought about me to be a trustful source.

I can just go after that I know and it was planned to cease in -23 depending on produced
gas for fuel gas thereafter but I don't have a date.

As Foinhaven isn't producing can they have broke /change that part of of deal?
It was gas from Foinhaven, Schiehallion and a small part from Clair that exported to Magnus.

F. has done well through the pandemic and with the right contract and circumstances it would fit in E.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
Sorry for the late answer.
It's always nice to have you in the neighborhood and see you writing with pondus and calm.

You have all right in your comment and the only cause I posted it was to inform others that the indicate that mrc told was wrong.
In Kraken-loads do I use 23 loads whats represent c. 1 year and I think that's a fair time to use.

I don't have that much decline as you, January at 30,25 k and falling to 27,59 k, means 10% decline counted month to month.
About the announced, big, maintenance do I use 1 month and with that do I stop at 18,17 boepd for Enquest vs 18,33 boepd for 26k (26*0,705).

At Magnus did they have workovers at 5 wells but the latest report talked about that 4 of them where online.
Anyhow so was the January numbers not so satisfying so I count low but expect better there and hope they are ongoing with drilling.

You are talking about some action at Kraken.
Exciting!

If you look at the origin plane for Kraken, you'll se that expected lifted barrels is c. 20m b more than the outcome.
The curve is flatter and I think you can expect less decline than that and its also why it haven't fall fast (and will probably never do that).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

mrc_ ,
To be honest, I have to say that the indication was 26.9k at the last unloading.
But I do not forget that Petroatlantic was in a hurry so it may still be a shorter indication next time.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
It seems important to empty for Petroatlantic has the same goal.

Its expected today at 2pm and at Scapa 20/3 at noon.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Sniperino,
Its not delayed.

If you have a departure 18/3 at 14.00 you still have indications of 30k production.
Since I think there is still some oil on AK it would be nice with an early pick up and that confirmation.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Plethorus,
At H1 you will have about 1,2mboe reported at sales as gas and a income around 90m.

That included third part gas, counted at $105 and paid by 70%.
Therapist is right also but we count it in different ways as he excluded 3rd p g as its no big income there.

So far is the premium not that high this year as it was around year end and at year start.
The price of VLSFO is slower so that will take its time before it settles.

I have fcf at + $500m and don't think I will be disappointed.
At H1 I have c. $230m.

Good luck.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,
If I would be the government should I use fast track immediately for ns.
All energy will be needed next winter and the time is ongoing.

About days who is no windy or sunny is the future just in the future but hopefully near.
To store energy, several different parts are needed and one of these can be aluminium batteries (https://kata-ana.com/ ).
The batteries of today is far from enough.

But for the moment, it is what is available that you have to resort to.
I expect some kind of action, soon, at ns.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Plethorus,
To be honest, I think Enquest was preparing for a possible closure of the Kittiwake area when oil prices were low.
There were many "experts" who said that the price of oil would be low forever, stupid and wrong.

Since they did not want the Eagle to be stranded (read: save some money), they decided to farm down (keep 15%) to Hibiscus.
It was not approved by OGA and we are waiting for information.

Regards/ Kamrat

I forgot the link.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I don't write with main purpose that you shall read the update.
On the top at right is it a link to support Ukraine.
There is also some links that Swede's can use but I'm not sure of other links that can be useful.
Do you have a good link, please write to me at kamrattarmak@gmail.com and I will get it posted.

Me and family have donated c. £400 and I hope that more people can do the same after their conditions.
Every cent have a mean but for them is it much higher, its freedom!

Regards/Kamrat