Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Pelle,
I know that the heading would make you to look!
It was too gloomy mood with down down down.

I saw a question earlier about a party (40P) in Malmö and wonderer if the list is full?
Was it you who sent it?

It should be nice to catch a place!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Boredom, most people learn to have my files and respond to the numbers instead of crying out your despair!

With a little imagination, it is possible to guess how much of fcf (it is the money left over after drilling costs, etc.) that will go to amortization, green projects or finance any purchases.

Amortization below -22 will certainly be made to meet the covenants available.

The rest should be able to benefit shareholders!

I guess at 30%, what are you guessing?

Regards / Kamrat

Hi!

L(00)7,
Nice to hear from you.

About Magnus, they will expand slots for further drilling, but they have free slots for drilling in -22.
I dont know the costs of expanding, so if anyone know it, please let me know.
There will be 2 or 3 wells drilled in -22 at Magnus.

As I understand will it be drilling at Kraken in -23.

Tiger: 211/12b, I mailed questions about it earlier and here is the conversation.
-I have a supplementary question about Tiger.
Is the licens of Tiger in Enquests possession?

(Jon) -Tiger is not one of ours. If you are referring to the one we believe you are, this is most likely in the open acreage to the South East of Magnus.

-Thanks again for the answer.
The missunderstanding can be that 211/12b is called Tiger at Offshore ( https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/article/16776606/elixir-finds-partner-for-tiger-well ).

(Jon) -If you are asking with regard to the Tiger license, as this is not one of ours, it is not our place to comment on drilling.

I dropped it with that!

I have too little of exerience in oiling but is it far-fetched to think that they also will use EP in BBK?

Have anyone got a site to share where to get productionsnumber in Malaysia?
It should get me happy.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

It became a 29,9 days cycle.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Due to the delay with unloading on Kraken, I have changed the forecast for H2 (deducted 15 days of production).
Please, comment if you see errors but even if it looks right.
-----------------------------
Therapist, about the production in Malaysia, Is it a place to look at for numbers?
I grope in the dark about it.
Happy for answer.

regards / Kamrat

Hi everybody!

For those who want, my files are now in updated form.
I have checked the numbers and made sure that the remaining errors (when I had the business date as the breaking point) are fixed.
They showed the direction of how the company is doing in any case.

For those who have not checked the files before, it works like this:
Comp.-21 is a summary and for a deeper look you go into Finance-21 and Gas & Oil-21.

For 2022, it is the same, but the extension of the files has been changed from -21 to -22.

Kraken loads is a follow-up of off-loadings from there, while Calculations contains several different calculations that may be of interest.

Regarding the kraken off-loading, it is no. 21 for the year and if they unload this cargo on 14/11, it is an indication of a daily rate of 17,857 boepd, so that this stop would do a lot, at least I do not think so because it is over 50 % of normal production.

In calculations, it is also with flight statistics from -18, -19, -20 and -21 and there you can compare commercial flights and total flights.
The link to Flightradar is also there, but they no longer show the numbers for -18.
-18 is a good comparison year as -19 was a record year in number of flights.

The link:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards / Kamrat

Hi!

gurun,
Thanks again that you take your time.

I did fix it and if I try to explain without translate I should say that the wrong was about using scissors and glue.
I copied the block of £ and put it in under that, changed some parts but missed that it should be against $

The FCF and FCF /share in Sek is right (and higher as the course is less) in my last message and BP sharing was right all time.

FCF before sharing is 766 500 000 and after sharing to BP 657 000 000.
I use 657 000 000 and 40% of it, 262 800 000 in the calculations.

It always a good idea to check the numbers as something wrong can easily happened.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

gurun,
I did found some wrong and wonderer if you can check this up.

I tried to make it with three values and was a bit careless in the translation.
I hope its right now.
The figures are year-based.

OP 70
BE 35
Boepd 60 000
Days 365
Shares 1 885 924 339
Share of fcf 40,00%
Yield 7,00%
FCF 766 500 000

Magnus countoff H1
Boepd 16 000
Days 365
BE 20,0
Op 70,0
Rev 292 000 000
Sharing Bp 37,50%
Total share to BP 109 500 000

FCF $ 657 000 000
Out 40% of fcf $ 262 800 000
Market capitalization $ 3 754 285 714
Stock price $ 1,99
Dividend $ 0,14

£, course to $ 0,729
Market capitalization £ 2 736 874 286
FCF £ 478 953 000
FCF / Stock 0,25
Stock Price £ 1,45
Dividend £ 0,10

Sek, course 8,7
Market capitalization Sek 32 662 285 714
FCF Sek 6 668 550 000
FCF / Stock 3,54
Stock Price Sek 17,32
Dividend Sek 1,21

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

gurun,
Thanks for telling me.

can you also explain how it should be?
Cause I dont like to have it wrong.

I prefer a mail in Swedish (then its easier to take in) but is it easy, so shoot.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!
Ko,
First of all I want to get response from the analysts who I sent my files.

They are in that order I sent it and I was sure I sent one to Mark Wilson (Jefferies) but I havent done that yet.
Not either to Cannacord`s Charlie Sharp
Sendig list Name Date of mailing
Barclays Capital James Hosie 2021-09-07
Pareto Johan Spetz 2021-10-15
JP Morgan James Thompson 2021-10-21
BofA Securities Matt Smith 2021-10-26

Left (if I sending)
Jefferies Mark Wilson
Canaccord Charlie Sharp

The las mail looked like this:
Hi Matt,
I'm an anonymous shareholder in Enquest but I do not have to be if you contact me.

I have researched the company and made some files that may be interesting.
The files are read with a summary (comp) and an in-depth study of finance (fine) and oil and gas (comp Gas & oil).
There are a few more files (and maybe even a new deal that has been hinted at from the company) but you can ask questions about them.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Most of it is at least in English but I am a Swede.
I hope you contact me if you have any comments or questions.

If you wonder about me, you can check up what i`m writing, Iam Writing at the forum of LSE and in the Swedish forum with nickname Tarmak and my signature is Kamrat (meaning comrade).

Tarmak is a Kamrat backwards

Regards / Kamrat

The reality will be showed and the numbers are quite easy (basic).
You have: quantity * price * days for the income
most of the expenses are in the guide from the company
There are not much to fight about.

It's an exciting time and I hope you feel it too

Regards / Kamrat

Hi!

I did have some comments but I also had a wrong thing in it
I used 30% instead of 40% in the block, so it became wrong (sorry).
Its fixed now but my choice for this time is 70, cause that I´ll think we get (with a upside).

The figures are year-based.

OP 70
BE 35
Boepd 60 000
Days 365
Shares 1 885 924 339
Share of fcf 40,00%
Yield 7,00%
FCF 766 500 000 (before sharing BP)

Magnus count off
Boepd 16 000
Days 365
BE 20,0
Op 70,0
Rev 292 000 000
Sharing Bp 37,50%
Total share to BP 109 500 000

FCF $ 657 000 000 (after sharing BP)
Out 40% of fcf $ 262 800 000
Market capitalization $ 3 754 285 714
Stock price $ 1,99
Dividend $ 0,14

£, course to $ 0,729
Market capitalization £ 2 736 874 286
FCF £ 558 778 500
FCF / Stock 0,30
Stock Price £ 1,45
Dividend £ 0,10

Sek, course 8,7
Market capitalization Sek 32 662 285 714
FCF Sek 6 668 550 000
FCF / Stock Sek 3,54
Stock Price Sek 12,63
Dividend Sek 0,88

Most of these numbers are quite easy to check up and I answer on questions if it is any.
Magnus BE can be discussed but it was huge in H1.

I hope it make sense.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
Sorry that I forgot Magnus count-off, that you are right in, and that is 156m on a 90-year base in my figures.

As I am comradely I always give thumbs-up to everyone who answer in a polite way, and lot of others.
Keep up the god work.

Mvh/Kamrat

Hi!

Thanks for so much response.
It would newer happened (I´ll think) if I wrote 70.

northernmonkey2,
The words is so wise that I think you should write your nickname with a big letter in the beginning.
I also have hope of that they hedging as small they can, but I don't think they will.
What you will and what you got can be with differences.

Pelle,
You have all right about the hedging and my 90 just show the valuation IF we get 90.
But you still wrong about BP-sharing and I shall try to only use H1 number why it is soo.
Check BP-sharing H1, its below 1m and in that case did BP get very little of 37,5% production!
Why: First you got to take away the BE ink, other costs.

epi,
Even you, Who asked me again to take right numbers, deserves to use big letter.
I don't have access to Malaysia numbers, so if you know how to get it and let me know I`ll would be happy.
I use 7 000 as base and 4 690 after calculating with 67%.
My Q4 numbers:

Enquests
% Numbers for Q4
Alba 8 000 8,00% 640
Goosander 450 50,00% 225
Grouse 450 50,00% 225
Gadwall 600 50,00% 300
Mallard 1 500 50,00% 750
Eagle 0 15,00% 0
Cratches 2 600 50,00% 1 300
Scolty 3 100 50,00% 1 550
Kraken Tot 32 500 70,50% 22 913
Magnus 16 000 100,00% 16 000
Golden Eagle 45 000 26,69% 12 011
Pereguine 1 000 26,69% 267
Solitaire 500 26,69% 133
Malaysia 7 000 67,00% 4 690 PSC variable
Bressay 0 40,81%
Bentley 0 100,00%
PM 409 0 85,00%
Tot 61 003
------------
I know that You over there First take away the gas so your beginning numbers are smaller.
As the gas price is higher now is the differences against crude not a big deal and some people think it shall counting higher or at least in same price.

I am so illiterate in that area so I use H1-numbers in my files but not Here.
All I know is that if I use my 70 numbers I will be very rich and on that is a very big upside.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Why is everyone so gloomy?
Its our time soon.
I have Enquest at a little over 61k at the moment, counting on 60k, and with their 4 (can be 5 according to email) drillings, decline should do very well (more likely with an increase).

Its possible that OP reach over 90 and if it do, it will be hedging.
I think that OP will rise during the winter and 90 may not be the highest price.

The figures are year-based.

OP 90
BE 35
Boepd 60 000
Days 365
Shares 1 885 924 339
Share of fcf 40,00%
Yield 7,00%

FCF $ 1 204 500 000
Out 40% of fcf $ 361 350 000
Market capitalization $ 5 162 142 857
Stock price $ 2,74
Dividend $ 0,19

£, course 0,729
Market capitalization £ 3 763 202 143
FCF £ 878 080 500
FCF / Stock 0,47
Stock Price £ 2,00
Dividend £ 0,14

Starting to look better with the prices that are and with hedges in high numbers, I must admit that the DIRECTION IS OUTLINED.

A few months in this climate, with $100 grands /month, is enough for it to feel really good.

Mvh/Kamrat

Hi!

Aloj,
Check up BW LPG.

They have divi but its very high <14%.
They carrying Gasol and some of there's ship is driven of it too.

They have a programme to redo more ships to be driven by Gasol.
Dont think that its scaring cause the fleet is over 30.
I have it as a spice in my portfolio.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

The production has being as follow.
GE-Production Average (OGA-nr)
J 10 615
F 13 320
M 12 250
A 1 821
M 9 487
J 13 180 10 112 H1
J 12 334
The following numbers are my forecast

A 12 011
S 12 011
O 12 011 12 091 H2 before business
N 12 011
D 12 011 12 011 H2 after business
Average this Year 11 088

After that I use right days so is the view that about 125m will be drawn from the purchase price (209m before tax 40%) and that c. 65m will be earned in the last 68 days of the year.
(Reservations for hedges).
---------------------
Romaron, you write too long text and with too many sides that I cant answer them as I dont understand enough about them (but it nice to read and follow them).

Mvh/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
Yes, its a easier way to count like you do but as you see in my count, I´ll do it low (op 70, 30% of fcf and a yield of 8%.

You can se that I have an airbag on my counting but I´m open to have wrong (cause that give us more money).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Tigar,
As I count in my way I take all finance for everything and use half/full year to see that my direction is right.
This is a odd year with many things to think about but I think It will be easier the next year.

In a line-up is it quite easy (if you use BE, brake even).
Its: Production/d * year days * (oilprice -BE) to reach fcf.

By the way, the company says that 211/12b Is not the Tiger and I have asked them so much questions about it so I am in shame.
And Enquests number about it is far from 90m.

Regards /Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
My valuation of Golden Eagle (-22) is not complicated and I shall try to explain it and use space for the calculations.

Days 365
boepd 10 000
OP 70
capex / Opex 20
FCF = (70-20)*10 000 *365 = 182 500 000

FCF 182 500 000
Shares 1 885 924 339
Price,Sek 8.70
Divi. % 8.00%
Divi. from fcf 30.00%

Why do I use 30% as part from fcf and other talking about 60 -70 %?
Its because I think that they must have space for Orion project (Shetland) and if 30% go to that project is 40% left for payoffs and other project (as i talking about -22 you cant use 200 borrowing cause it will be (gone) lower).

Total dividend (30% of fcf) 54 750 000 (182 500 000 * 0.30)

Why do I use 8% for counting on how much the market cap will rise while other talk about 5-7%?
In my portfolio I have one company with a Yield of 14% ( that means that the course is pressed and the yield is high against the course.
I dont think it will be that pressure on E but I dont either think it will be as it could have being before corona and climatetalking.
GE's market value 684 375 000 (54 750 000 / 0.08)

To reach the stockprice I take the market value divided with shares in company
Stock price 0.36 (684 375 000 dollars / 1 885 924 339)

Share price SEK 3.16 (0, 36 * 8.7)

To reach divi/share I take total dividend divided with shares in company
Divi. / Share 0.029 (54 750 000 dollars / 1 885 924 339)

Utd./share Sek 0.25 (54 750 000 * 8.7 / 1 885 924 339)

Regards / Kamrat

Hi!

Valuation of Golden Eagle for -22
Long-term Opex / Capex is estimated at $ 20 / barrel but is currently lower.
I still count on $ 20 and 10kboepd for -22,
Days 365
boepd 10 000
OP 70
capex / Opex 20
182 500 000

FCF 182 500 000
Shares 1 885 924 339
Price, ISK 8.70
Divi. % 8.00%
Divi. from fcf 30.00%

Total dividend 54,750,000 182,500,000 * 0.3
GE's market value 684 375 000 54 750 000 / 0.08
Stock price 0.36 684 375 000 dollars / 1 885 924 339
Share price SEK 3.16 0, 36 * 8.7
Divi. / Share 0.029 54 750 000 dollars / 1885924339
Utd./share Sek 0.25 54 750 000 * 8.7 / 1885 924 339

The calculation is also on calculations (at the bottom) in my files.

The energy drink, with the nice name, which adorns comp-21 is not recommended by me,
Tired quickly of the taste but it was a fun thing.

In summary, I only value GE at a higher price than the entire Enquest and still with reasonable figures.

Regards / Kamrat