Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Was the value of the company correct in 2017?
($millions)
EV -17, 2720
EV -18, 1879
EV-19, 1818
EV -20, 1474
EV -21, 1700
EV -22, (forecast) 1169
EV -23, (forecast) 544

2022
Shares 1.886m
Net debt $632m
NOTE, EV with a closing price of 23.4p.

2023
EV with a closing price of 25p.

As this year is soon a reality as almost 8 months have passed I check the value of it and take my forecast of -22 as true.

$/share
If EV was like -17, 1.11 would be the year-end cost per share
If EV was like -18, 0.66 would be year-end cost per share
If EV was like -19, 0.63 would be year-end cost per share
If EV was like -20, 0.45 would be the year-end cost per share
If EV was like -21, 0.57 would be the year-end cost per share

Remember that -20 was a "corona year" and we are still suffering for it but we should not be valuated as then.

I'd say we'll get a well-deserved higher share price now that dividends are approaching.

Regards/ Kamrat

Hi!

Never forget the tax deductions!
They are worth 40% of c. 3bn = 1.2bn.

That is $0.64 /share and c.6.80 SEK /share.

It's the cream on top!
Should make my estimated 20% fcf dividend too low...
..However, I would like to be a little low as the company will probably do it in the first year with dividends.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Here is my view on the loans after H1:
Debt 880
New Bond 133
Left H1 -22, 747
Maximized actual RBL 750

This means that it was already possible to remove all loans except new bonds at the end of H1.
I foresee it being resolved once they have done their job (having simple terms on a new RBL).

I have updated the files and as usual I ask for comments if anything is wrong or could be done in a better way.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
For -22, I am not sure how the outcome will be regarding the WFT and the court case in Malaysia.
For -23 it is the same with WFT but the cost of additional payment for GE feels safe.

About the gas is my numbers from oga (no third part gas) and the forecast is counted.
If you look at the debt I don't have the right numbers but in total it's just over (10m) and I'll let it be…

I will not have so much sparetime from now so please have some add to the discord or send a mail if there are any questions.
I miss a lot here.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
You're right, if the course stand still until late this year year end is it a fact.

I have EV at $1 157m and EBITDA at $1 173m at year end, crazy numbers.
Its something to talk about later..I was there and thats how I...

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Aloy,
I shall write it up!

Thanks for all the nice words, it makes me happy with what I do.
That tax does not take much but it makes people feel insecure and wonder "what happens next".
It's a bit like a red veil in front of your eyes and people do almost anything to avoid it.

It becomes counterproductive if companies avoid investments but at the same time they lose the profit money from the investment.

I hope we pay a lot of tax, but preferably as little as possible with the current rules, but that means money on the last line for us.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ukbbbbbb,
I think it's more about securing mortgages over time and having room to pay the rest with current income.

Probably makes it better conditions on the high yield bond and it is he who "solves the puzzle".
We will see in September if something has happened, but it is clear that they want to strangle it.
Then RBL will be gone / ready for new, simpler, conditions.

Time works for us.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

BTFATH1,
I'm not sure what you writing or if you don't understand the files.

What I say is that the shareprice now c. 22,3p have the potential to move near Aloy's number (66,15p) in "The Romaron challenge" with 65,3p.
Its almost at the bottom of the page in "year -22" and it says that the potential is 293,26% (it changes whit the course)

It attracts me but what chilting does here one may wonder...
Any wonderer, please let me know.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

As a person who makes forecast is it hard to be in the frame cause some think it's to high and other that its far away to low.
when the fact's on the table is it another thing and as I'm hard trying to not be too high is that day's pure satisfaction.

What have happened?
I just updated the maintenance in my files and it was too much time there (as I expected)!
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
That means that the production will reach a bit higher.

One more thing, I have hard time to put thoughts into words, and today I read an article from Enquest discord who Axelsson had published (link to discord in the bottom of my file, Year -22), https://www.lynalden.com/the-area-under-the-curve/ , and it's almost my own thoughts.

Most things look bright and it is only the time that is missing in the equation (if it is even for everything, it indicates that the company has hedged more thanks to the rules in RBL, which suggests that income to 60% of the next 12 months is secured per rolling quarters).
We have past the goal but the market will get informed later!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Sorry for writing free-handed but I just have to training on that.
My files are updated again with WT, prices and production.
Some other files are also updated.

WT will be a maximum of 25% minus certain items of investment and it still makes sense to invest in NS thanks to the tax deductions.
That would be enough for chilt, I'll think.
This is probably a good opportunity to buy things from companies that do not have deductions.

Prices is updated about VLSFO as it looked stupid to have them soo low as I have.

Production have a bigger difference at Magnus as I have calculated to low and now with new OGA data I put it in right direction.

In "calculate" is the flights updated and even with a fall in April is it only 15% after record year (-19) and 9% after -18 at moment in commercial flights.
For total flights is it at all time high.

Enquest will drill an exploration well by the end of the PM409 exploration period, which ends in December 2023.
That results will be interesting!

This is going to fly but the timing is harder but I still thought that we will reach 45p this year.

Good luck everyone.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ukbbbbbb,
I have been busy for a while with handball (it is a fun sport to watch and this time it was outdoors on grass with the Eken Cup in Stockholm).

I do not understand your numbers but I will try to answer the question, numbers from my files are total E's production:
Enquest will have approximately 16,081,719 barrels in production for the year and that makes 9,649,032 safe for the year (I explain for the entire year) and 6,432,688 remain unsecured.
The following 12 months would be secured with 40% of production

That bit was clear until they did not secure more and I think we will get that answer in September.
Something has changed in it and I think it has been traded with other conditions.
-----------
I did do the changes in the files with Suncors $50m part in Q3 -23 and that legacy with $18m to PBJV.
PBJV is not ready yet as it is in arbitration, but it is incl. litigation costs & interest.

Elex, from Sweden, was on the AGM and he did bring some back about when the drilling would be on so I have changed these times and updated the files.
My new valuation on Enquest, 54,4p, is between Tigar and Modestus but I say what I said before, I'll think Aloj will take Romaron's competition this year!

For these who don't have my files, that's out 24h a day, keep it as I will not write so much as I have other to do.
Its ok to send a mail, its at top of files, if anyone have questions about it:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

chilting,
Yes, it is a mystery!

As I haven't seen the count how he reach that $450m.
E have not say anything else than that they have a drilling program for some years and capex take down the tax.

The highest you can pay is 25% of the profit, not fcf.
You have to count off Malaysia, capex, sharing BP and depletion.

I show my calculations and with same opex/capex as this year would the tax for -23 be c. $45m and if they use more capex would it be less.
If they use more capex will it be higher production after a while.
In my calc's have they 80% of fcf to use in the company and that will be enough anyway to reduce tax.

How to use the 20%?
Read my files!

I hope they make it easier to reach zero in WT and sure they will have the necessary production.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ukbbbbbb,
Thanks for that you look critical on my pages (that's what I want everyone to do).
I will put it in soon as there is still season for cup's in handball and I have to live a bit too.

I have also not put in the cost of legacy to Barakah's subsidiary PBJV as it is in Arbitration.
Incl. legal costs & interest is that amount c $18m (before arbitration).

Regarding Jamie's analysis, I could not control myself so I sent my files back to the analysts the other day

You cant have too much friends and I see you as one of mine.

I hope all of you a great AGM.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ukbbbbbb,
I did successfully updated -22 and -23 without Malaysia's numbers, about the tax.

I still wrong in -22 when I count of for 7 month's from the year but the most capex is in H2 so the tax-amount is still a bit high.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

My new valuation Is c. 57p (56p) and c.70p (67p) for -22 resp. -23.
That is with the same capex than this year.

One thing that make me wonderer is why people are so scared about any costs even if it is a tax.
My valuation calculating swallow 80% to be left in the company to invest (and reduce tax) and only 20% for dividend's.

If they start up Bressay, they will have gas for operations (a bit greener) and secure a longer life of Kraken.
They have also the possibility to open Bentley (that would be easier to electrify with a platform) as costs to first oil counted to be around $700-$800m (with platform).

I'm sure that Enquest does what's best for the company so it is a exciting time to come.
Foinaven is a possibly field if the get it almost for free, as it also secure pipe from Clair, Schiehallion and other fields.
It is a matter of negotiation.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ukbbbbbb,
Congratulations, you got me to work hard all day, screaming and shout.

Iv'e got the job done in my future-files and soon they are in the other files (maybe tomorrow).
The result for -22 is a tax at $9,9m and I let you calc. the impact on each share...

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Save More,
I know there is weakness with upside but I try hard to avoid downside's.
I take it when (not if) it comes.

About the gas, I have changed my model to skip 3:rd gas counting and only take produced numbers.
In that I also changed to count in MMBtu (million British thermal units) and take the price at https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
The average so far in H1 is c. 6,5/MMBtu, but actually price for June is over 9.

About tax and gas:
These are just small posts (compare in the file) but it seems that the gas will be much larger than the tax.

Thanks for respond and please release your numbers so I can compare with mine.
I know you have more experience than I do!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Ukbbbbbb,
You should have capital letter, thank's for the critic.

It's obviously when you zoom out but its so easy to do wrong in the moment.
The tax will be less when I have done the work correct and take away the Malaysian part.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I have updated the files about the tax.
One thing with -22 is wrong and that's I'm count of for 7 month's from the year but the most capex is in H2 so the tax-amount is a bit to big.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

My valuation Is c. 56p and c.67p for -22 resp. -23.
I have not put on more capex than this year (that will take down the tax a bit) but I'm sure that it will happened.

In my own thought about the tax would it be enough with more production (100% reducing of the tax with cost's (capex/abex) to be fair!

Sipp10,
I'm sure Foinaven will be bought if it is interesting but with a smaller price.
All these WOS, with connect to SVT will be interesting in time and E is sitting on the Joker.

Have a great (rest of the) week.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Martinen,
They don't steal 25%, they force the companies to invest money to take away most of it.
This is a large overreaction!

Enquest will pay small part this year (maximize 23m) and a bit more next dependent on how much they invest.
I added 140k shares today and that will tell you how much I believe in Enquest and its future.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Sipp 10,
Sorry if I just give a short answer, I'm in hurry.

If you look in the OGA-file, you'll see that month by month being changing caused by maintenance.
The June number is half, minus decline, 24 614 and that's what bring 46 279 for H1.
I suggest you to look on that in late of the year and see what numbers do in August to year end.

Thanks for the question!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Therapist,
sorry for late response.

I always need time when there have been update's.
Positive for this time is that I make it easier to compare our numbers by that I left third gas-counting and try to count like you?? and convert gas to mmbtu.
I now also count off 2% (1%) for shrinking after show'n numbers.
Regards to the price is my count off for PSC 35% as it is a bit as a hedge (lower price = lower %).

I can see that I'm a bit in front in my forecast but it repair it selves at maintenance as I have taken in a bit there.
There was strong numbers and if you see month by month in row 150 in OGA, you'll see really strong numbers at late year but the numbers who will be released in September will be less caused by maintenance.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat