Member Info for Tarmak

ps/ even jamie hosie, barclays (in lower case), received the Swedish version as a direct message.
Do we think he is capable of translating?

Hi!

some have already received this as a direct message.
It is structured as a presentation with as simple calculations as I can.

Are you willing to invest in a company, even if it is in a hated industry, where the main thing is high fcf (over 85% of mc, 7/10 -22 compared to year-end in my files) and where there are tax deductions of c. $2.5bn?
Free cash flow (fcf) is a concept of how much money is left in the company after all costs have been paid.
The company has a value of c. $620 million (10/10 -22) and fcf of c. $550 million.
From previous years, fcf has gone to reducing loans and developing the company.
The share price has not kept up with debt reduction and the company has never been cheaper.

The company has never had a dividend before but they are getting closer to their goals and have stated their desire to create returns for the owners.
Quote from half-year report H1 -22:
"We remain focused on further strengthening our balance sheet, which will position us well to leverage our ability to unlock
organic and inorganic growth opportunities, including capital-light infrastructure and new energy operations, and deliver returns to shareholders in the future."

The company is well placed to invest in green energy and already has a lot of infrastructure in place.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaVLS8Hp8EhOa-DYEJ-T7TDgmeUnTBvqDPFTx-rvBKQ/edit?usp=sharing

The link to my ordinary file's, who is updated with prices, is in the file.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

mrc etc.,
I agree with that.

Instead of guaranteeing some type of peak at xxx cost, they should ask the oil companies what they need to try to ensure the need for the country (or at least alleviate the need).

I think the cost will be lower even if they would be forced by some investment and/or guarantee on high risk objects that are ready to drill (Enquest may have an object depending on where the case is at the moment, Eagle).

It should have come as a suggestion but instead WFT appeared and made the situation worse.

This winter, private individuals in a vulnerable position will certainly need help with the bills in any case, but you have to look at it more long-term as well.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

PYUECK,
We don't go against the wind now and the different is named FCF.

Since -18 do they have it but they where not in shape to use it as they want but from around Q1 -22 do they reach their Net.debt / Ebitda -goal on ~0,5 and they can already now refinance RB(7%) and HyB.

They have told us that they want to be a slimmed company and IF they want to buy anything will they do it in base of profit sharing and some kind of business loans if they dont have any fcf left.
They can do that because company who is willing to sell have money and they can wait to get paid.

That don't make any different about the shape on Enquest in the short time so they can pay divis when they reach their goals.

One remarkable thing is that the value on the company (read EV, MC + Debt) have gone down from $2 720 in -17 to $1 700 in -21.
In my numbers will it be $1 120 at end of -22!

The case cannot, imo, continue any further as the results show and the way to divide is open.
It depends on this year's fcf, which is about to end, and next year.
The reason why I can say that about next year is two things: most other company needs better pay than enquest to go around and if it would be a drop in prices (almost never longer than three month's) is Enquest fast in the steps (just look at the delayed or cancelled drilling this year) and can fast take down costs.

It's also a reason why I think they delayed some drilling as the payback is longer term than because they want to hit their targets and I think it's in Q1 -23 at the latest.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Zippy Frood,
You're right and it is give a pressure on the course so keep on buying (if you got cash).

I can get used to this bad development (with joy), only the conditions for a high rate remain and I don't see anything that can crush it.

my target price for Enquest is c. 73p (and I don't understand hosie (small letter), who like the other analysts, got my files).
He didn't ask any questions when they released the H1 and I don't even know if he was there!
Ok, I spend a lot of more time on this than him but it's easy to check my numbers and do changes with it in own counting.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I've updated the link with corrected numbers for opex & capex (abex).
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

I've also put in a file, LTH, with numbers in pence there you can see what had be happened if you where invested since July -19 (with 10 shares) and bought 1 each month since then.
Over 60% in price gain and still the upside with LESS risk!

I "hear" people complaining about the price and results but do they know what they are complaining about or do they just want to push the stock down to buy cheap and enrich themselves at the expense of others?

I wish all good luck.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Spindok,
My writing hawe never being better so I wonderer if you transform it to me?

It always best to buy every month in company's who give high divis or always have upgoing courses.
If the market is going down you need to have right company and I think that as shape Enquest is at it would make it good anyway.

Good luck

Regards/ Kamrat

Hi!

Spindok, krakenoil,
The most important thing is the valuation you give for the company.

Is the value near valuation you'll not get much out of it (if it dont went to be overvalued).
If you are quite sure that the share will come back is of course the dips best.
Just dont be standing without anything when a undervalued share rises.

You buy valuation for a value and dont forget that.

What is that say about Enquest?
I have a valuation of Enquest at c. 70p with divi and without (as it is now) but closing did I say c. 44p in Romarons competition but I use to do it low.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

AIMOILKing,
The $33m is buyback of bonds and I dont do comparing as i it hard to find better numbers than this.
Market can do else so it's good to be invest in other also (I'm on 65% in E).

Therapist,
I think it's natural that you get closer to read my files as I use more the same sources now than earlier.

I know that I may be a bit low but there is a difference between reported and OGA of 1,73% (h1) as I use a corrector for (OGA row 143 in my files) as I take away.

That part who will be interesting is what's Magnus will bring on the fixed and new well.
There is also a upside about the new wells in Malaysia so you can have right about that I'm low.
As this is happened late at the year will it give high numbers for -23 but if you look at "OGA" again, at row 173, you'll se great numbers, month by month, in December and I think that it's what important.
(You're still my therapist, keep going)

Anyone is welcome to give critic on the files so please do it!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

The tax losses is worth 40%, 1,051bn and there are a hole bunch who waiting for them.
In total is Enquest soaring between 60-70% and I try to make it in the middle.
I have a requirement from the bank not to be higher due to leverage.

I have updated the files and as every time do I want critic.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NooXOnMm3wy6kQXc25g0MQrB0w-UqbrId5jrMVbjphk/edit?usp=sharing

There will be a exciting autumn and I know that there is an opportunity to refinance Hyb and Rb (7%) and believe that it will be done if the situation is right.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

**** behind the steering wheel!
Use this link instead.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ptl6-HfFk5ZxJMlXpVytf3jefF9yg3WaTIVqQ4gm3dQ/edit?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I'm a LTH and there is lot of people wonderer why to be!

I made an calculation, sorry that it's in SEK, but it can be representative for it.
When I ask anyone how much % they get it's almost a low % and they are impressed when I say that I want my 20%.
Some of these, not all, are grumpy and whiny and say that Enquest is a crap stock.

This file is a fiction and not representative for my invest cause I bought in the dips and are much better.
Even as I lost very much during corona-bottom (caused by forced to sell with a loss as I also invested with loans).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ptl6-HfFk5ZxJMlXpVytf3jefF9yg3WaTIVqQ4gm3dQ/edit?usp=sharing

Its built as a person buying 10 shares in the middle of -19 (that dont fit my either) and then 1 share every month (monthly price).
I hope that it can make some to think a bit!

As a long time holder is I dont in need with money fast so I hope that the oil price dont go to high as I think that will make people freezing during the cold period and in the same time forced to keep budget low.

Be lucky everyone!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I agree that electrification is best to do with easier targets and that saves both money and will be more efficient and save co2 faster.
Maybe if they take Bentley big, with platform, will it be that.
I hope that it is as good as the paper on it and that part of economic time is counted on 35 years even if it still will be oil left!
It will extend the Kraken's field life by 10+ years

The gas of Bressay will be fuel if its not being hijacked by the state as it is lack.
It will be a interesting year from now.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Tigar,
They will take easier parts first.

But for people who is interested about Bentley is there a lot of material to read in my files (Links).
Its a huge field and well researched with surveys that the company will go through again.
Can save a lot of money on it.

The development cost to first oil was calculated at c. $730m and a peak of c. 46kboepd and 57kboepd 5 years later when the southern part would start.

But we know from experience with the Kraken that it didn't go to plan.
Looks interesting!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I noticed earlier that OGA-numbers were available for July but I cant see it for Magnus!
Is anyone here able to help me?
I want to know oil production (b/d), associated gas production (MMscf/d), gas flared volume (Ksm3) and gas injected (Ksm3).
Please.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Here is my notes around the update:
-The gas in Malaysia (Seligi) is being negotiated even though there is no need for more gas at the moment in the Peninsular, but when they are starting to move gas from there....
If it doesn't work out, it will be around -25 (a number to touch on).
(Now is the gas only from PM8)

-EP can likely play an important initial role for Bressay.

- Window open after full and half-year reports for refinancing where they want 50-50 Bond-RBL, but can also be thought to be higher RBL means that it can be resolved quickly on reasonable terms.

-Net.debt/EBITDA ~ 0.5 is mentioned as approaching and it is reached during H1 (even with very lean calculations).

- transition to floor prices with no ceiling mentioned.

-Their ambition with continued presence in NS taking advantage of the tax credits (don't forget those available through Bentley).

-Electrification of WoS (charge to provide electricity to easier places than e.g. electrifying Kraken which is difficult but reduce total carbon footprint).
That will be more efficient to reach targets.

-Magnus horizontal drilling with saved slot and good results verified with less drilling!

-The drilling in Malaysia, also verified good and two more to come!

I see this case as a great opportunity and in a short period of time.
It looks amazing for longer...

I'll work at an easier model on files so updates can take a while but these who is online is representable of my thoughts.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Vos glamour have been around AK for 10 days and still are.
I dont know if it have what its demanding but Elex, on discord, says this:
Bumi would change some valves on the DC2, and it's a 5-year SPS and they probably can't push it ahead of them.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Please, I've lost everyone's numbers in the challenge and was wondering if someone could post them.
When there are many changes, it is far too easy to throw away a part that you want to keep (Hope for luck).

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
It's there, both in $ and SEK.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
It wasn't any fcf reported in 2017!

But I can present the following years with forecast for -22 and -23.
($millions)
2017: -
2018: 215
2019: 368
2020: 211
2021: 397
2022: 592
2023: 662

Its available in key figures in my files.

Regards/Kamrat