Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Thanks Rom, to let me know.

Its not easy when you use translate and make some wrong, i wrote "hädelse" instead of "händelse".

What I wanted to say was that the next 5 years are "a fairway" and the economic is secured, including GAEA.

Regards

Kamrat

hi!

what caused the price of oil, both futures and dated brent to fall yesterday, well a small temporary drop in the price (trump's tweets make the fall bigger), was because iran let 26 ships through the gulf.

3 of them were vlccs with a total of 6m barrels of oil going to china and south korea, while 2 were middle eastern suezmax ships with refined products.

the remaining vessels were container, bulk and dry cargo, all with destination asia.

no one to west!

iran has laid out a plan to gradually increase this in june, provided trump's promised pause in airstrikes remains and secret negotiations in ****stan move forward.

in total in may, c. 18m barrels of oil have been let through, which is what usually leaves the gulf every day.

it will be exciting if and when the shipping companies dare to send empty boats into the bay.

regards

kamrat

Hi!

I like "creating a five-year fairway" the best.

I think Craig was involved in that letter, as a dedicated golf supporter.

Like I said, the blasphemies secure everything going forward, including GAEA.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Profitaker,

$60m for the costs, saving c. $30m /y

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,

Regarding the EP and what I understand, at least a dry dock is needed for measurement and partial replacement (10%) of the hull, replacement of the swivel or renovation and rebuilding of the existing one (at the factory) and the drawing of more heating coils to make it work on heavy oil fields.

cost $200m - $350m.

The time it was planned c. 2 years ago was that she would operate for a few years (up to -30) but a renovation could enable 15 years.

Is there economics in it?

Maybe better to lift the modules on a newer "wreck" and use it for some field that is easier to adapt (read cheaper) the boat to?

Asia?

The top page on the EP was newly built for the Alma/Galia stay and is usable.

The top side is modular.

The parts that are most valuable - the gas compressors, water injection pumps (90k bpd capacity) and separation modules are worth $300-400M compared to buying new (excluding the time required compared to new + 3 years).

The parts can be worth between $100m - $150m on the secondary market, so it's best to use them yourself.

That the AIS indicates "the bay" is probably because it was meant to dock there and the destination was preset.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Ken 10,

Correct, most of the price increases will be felt in Q2 and Q3 (SEA a bit later) but the price will also continue to be high for a longer time.

Probably there will also be an impact for -29 as the return time of oil to spr seems to be extended (because the interest in it has been cool as they want back 20% more than they lend) so that those who borrow can have finances in the loan.

How much impact will there be then is the question, but if stock is filled, the price will be affected!

Depending on how short-term you are in the stock, you act accordingly, but this event is far out of the ordinary.

The corresponding fixed in the other direction, first price war with stock release then corona, we know how it was but now?

I stick my chin out and claim that EnQuest has/will secure all future development including GAEA.

They do not need to use any more loans than the existing ones and everything will be secured in the future.

That security will spill over into dividends as they are long-term sustainable.

It feels good to have a "substantial steak" purchased.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Profitaker,

Sees it in a different way than you, not buying the share but selling shares of Bressay and Bentley and at the same time getting a strong partner, pushed into the new company with joint ownership.

The price?

Something reasonable can probably be agreed upon, other production maybe if it works from a tax point of view.

The Waldorf deal gives them incentives to invest and they need something to match the deductions.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Will the deal between Waldorf and Harbor come off?

For a judge, it's not about ideology, poll numbers or "scoring points" in the media but blindly following the law (in this case the Companies Act 2006, Part 26A), looking at the financial maths and asking the tough, legal question:

Will the tax authority be worse served by this deal than if the company goes bankrupt?

When the maths proved that HMRC gets 14% with the Harbor deal but only 0.1% in a bankruptcy, the law left no choice.

The judge ruled according to what was objectively right for the creditors, regardless of how much HMRC argued on the basis of its "constitutional duty".

For politicians, the playing field is completely reversed. They are governed by:

Political rhetoric: Showing voters that they are "putting the greedy oil companies in."

Short-term budget holes:

Rolling confiscation of cash flows via 78% EPL to cover acute holes in the treasury, without regard to the fact that they simultaneously erase the incentives for the green CCS investments they themselves demand.

Ideological locks:

Pushing through laws like the Energy Independence Bill to block future extraction, even if it ultimately destroys the country's own energy supply and drives away billions of capital (like BASF and Harbour) to other regions.

You cannot build a long-term investment thesis on what British politicians think or want right now - because that changes with the next opinion poll.

Hope that the courts can be trusted to protect concluded agreements and financial logic.

If it is ready in Q2, I believe in a deal with Hbr.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

profiteer,

Despite stock releases (4-5m/d only in Europe), not enough products are produced to meet demand.

Everything I wrote leads to higher prices and Europe is not spared on that front but UK is more exposed as they dismantled refineries and destroyed their oil industry.

the bang against the "wall" is a fact but those who know about it are relatively quiet.

You will be affected by local fuel stoppages this summer (shortages are already felt regionally), food will be barely 10% more expensive and flights will be hit hardest where settings etc. have already started and prices for what is available have become much more expensive.

"Staycations" are encouraged!

The electricity and gas ceiling will be raised in July and possible interest rate increases are expected despite a full-scale recession.

The winter will be managed in a good way as the supply of gas is sufficient, but the pricing is set after the locked gas from the gulf so there will be record levels after the price ceiling is raised.

This will be worse if it takes longer.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

profitaker,

If there is a shortage of products, crude oil is required to make the products.

In the event of a shortage, the price is raised on both as long as there are stock withdrawals.

If we take the last 4 weeks (last today as a forecast) it looks like this:

Crude: 1.9, -6.2, -2.3, -1.65, Tot -8.25

Spr: -4.1, -7.1, -5.2, -5.0, Tot -21.4

Cushing: 0.81, -0.80, -0.65, -1.0, Tot -1.64

Gasoline: -4.6, -6.1, -2.5, -2.6, Tot - 15.8

Distillates: -3.4, -4.5, -1.3, -2.1, Tot -11.3.

Crude, Spr and Cushing can be summed up to 31.29m barrels.

However, the sum of Gasoline and Distillate must be calculated to make them equal to how many barrels of crude oil it takes to make them.

For Gasoline (tot 15.8m), 35.11m barrels of crude oil are used in production (content c. 45%).

For Distillate (tot -11.3), 45.20m barrels of crude oil are used in production (content c. 25%).

As both are produced at the same time, I have added them together and divided the sum by 2 to get the figure for the average value that is missing in crude oil barrels, -40.16m.

In total, 31.29m + 40.16m = 71.45m barrels are missing in 4 weeks to get it going around.

This gives an average of 17.8m barrels /w which is missing.

This is in a situation where there was actually access to oil on water, but at least Iran's part is gone and the exceptions for Russia are expiring.

"It's on fire in the stands, but it's over there"!

Feel it again?

stupmy,

Regarding the price of the stock, it may take some time until the money is presented, may happen sooner but we should at least go up on future oil price increases (and down if it is tweeted etc.).

Regards

Kamrat

Continues,

If the Total (Crude + SPR) falls: Catastrophic for the "bears" who want to see a low oil price.

If the Products dive: Evidence of logistical collapse.

If Exports Increase: Evidence that Asia/Europe is "stealing" US oil to cover the Hormuz hole.

Falling raff utilization + falling product inventories, if they are forced to slow down while gasoline and diesel inventories continue to plummet, it means we have a hole in supply that cannot be filled.

The price of gasoline and diesel at the pump and refinery margins will explode, driving up the price of crude regardless of what the paper market says.

Oil on water – The buffer runs out quickly

Since Hormuz was essentially closed at the end of February, the last "normal" cargoes have already reached their destinations in April.

Regarding the Russian exemptions, they expire on 5/16 and this week's report is the last with the impact of Russian imported oil (unless extended).

It is about c. 500k - 800k /d of "correct" oil that can disappear.

It may also be the case that imports increase slightly in the last few days as a great many Russian ships have moved there before the exemptions expire.

Imo there will be an extension on the exemptions where the US "takes" what they need leaving China and India to share the leftovers.

It is mostly urals, which can bring sanctions if others import it.

Trump can then say that his policy is working even though he has only moved the deficit to the other side of the globe.

Exciting evening awaits with the oil numbers in any case.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

The problem that comes is when the releases from stock do not produce sufficient effect to affect the availability of products.

There is plenty left to drop, but it is the wrong quality, in the wrong place and late.

although Asia takes the hit early, but it will also affect the West.

If you imagine that you end up in a situation where 10%-15% of the world's needs are missing and that warehouses cannot help, it becomes tricky and a matter of cost as to who can buy.

will be interesting to analyze the stocks this week.

It doesn't matter if the US has crude oil in SPR if the refineries can't get hold of the right mix (quality) to run out diesel and gasoline.

What we should see:

A sharp reduction in distillates (diesel/fuel oil) and petrol stocks.

If the refineries in the US are forced to reduce their runs because they are not getting the right oil from the Middle East, we will see an "inventory slaughter" of finished products.

If crude oil stocks rise (due to spr release) at the same time as product stocks fall, it is "Wrong oil in the wrong place".

These are the products to keep an eye on!

A 10-15% shortage cannot be solved with logistics already in full swing.

It will be a "squeeze" the likes of which the market has not seen since the 70s.

Analysts expect an increase in commercial stocks of 1.2 - 2.0m barrels (spr release of c. 5m which has priority in pipelines and queue oil building stocks).

If there is instead a drawdown of stocks, it is an extremely tight market.

The products:

Gasoline: Expected to decrease by about -1.5 million barrels and here the "Driving Season" in the USA starts to press on.

Distillates: Expected to decrease by about -1.0 million barrels.

If we see cuts of over 3 million barrels on the product side, the market will realize that refineries are not keeping up and the "wrong quality in the wrong place" will become visible.

to be continued

Hi!

Toxic Bull,

you are almost considered an ultra "bull" when the price of oil has fallen, while you are considered a "bear" when the price goes up.

Difficult to accommodate everyone's own thoughts in that situation but I try to "lay low" deliberately.

In the forecast file I posted earlier I have the fall from approximate current level (correcting for over and under prices, target price now c. 108 as average)

to my predicted minimum level (average) at the end of the year with 90.

My average is then at c. 93 but it is built for EnQuest including hedges.

can be reasonably similar.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

tigers,

Why in town?

If i were you, living in England, I would actually watch Vår Energi and buy everything under 47 Nok (https://varenergi.no/), general meeting 29/5.

Provides a hedge for your energy prices and around 10% in dividends / year.

They have high loans and through this situation will easily defend their new valuation by lowering them!

Like us, the outcome is expected to show itself mostly for Q2.

As trump tweeted down oil, I have gone long oil after the falls and so far it has been a good strategy that has outclassed all other returns.

I'd bought myself an Porche Targa and still have money in it.

Both my wife and I turn even years this year, 110 together, so unfortunately I will refrain from visiting the meeting this year as well.

rather invest money in countries with a sensible system and equal conditions.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

Papegoja,

The difference is not that big, besides, E saves the hedges for later.

Go to: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/bSM8XOLF/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAFY1%21+NYMEX%3ABZ1%21 and enter NYMEX:AFY1!+NYMEX:BZ1! in the symbol search.

Select data window to bring up the daily prices as you swipe over the chart.

Tip / enter -NYMEX_DL:BZ1! last in the formula to see only the difference between the DB and the forward price

Otherwise, you can count on at least $90 for the full year as the price received for EnQuest, which increases the longer time passes before there is a solution.

It is based on the fact that it takes at least 3 months before an opening has any real effect and that there will still be an increased price during the year due to many reasons.

Regards

Kamrat

Continuing.

The risk is also that countries will ensure that "their stocks" will be well filled in the future.

For -27, I predict that those who borrowed oil for oil + interest will have to vacuum the market to avoid even more expensive oil later as there are large quantities to be bought and returned, which gives a higher price throughout -27.

-28 the majority of the oil will be returned in the spring and that will keep the price up.

War isn't just boring, it's pathetic to see great powers go to waste for them instead of maintaining order (like a kind big sister or big brother) but it's nothing to apologize for when you as an EnQuest owner take advantage of it.

Abused by political decisions that have given us worse conditions than Russia (!), used for price wars in the fight for oil power, etc.

Being invested now and after more than 15 years starting to get something back is mainly reminiscent of a research company with poor prospects being exposed to and they are often helped to survive for a fairly long time.

It is only now that EnQuest can begin to blossom and I see the above as insurance that EnQuest will have a brilliant future regardless of what happens.

They will ensure all the expansion they need for future projects going forward, including CCS and GAEA, and most likely there will be more projects as well.

Have a really good time and treat yourself a little extra, I will.

Regards

Kamrat

Hi!

You can look at the situation in many different ways and form different ideas about how it should be handled.

Right now, the situation in most countries is fairly unchanged in terms of supply, only affected by prices that seem to jump up and down for days on end after some tweeting.

The situation is also fairly unchanged for the common man except that stocks are falling and that it is not only Cushing (29m now) that has its limitations (minimum level there of c. 20m to not suck slag or air that destroys the pumps).

Spr also has its limitations and they will find it difficult to release oil as time goes by as the salt caves are sensitive and pressure sensitive.

This is also why they can "only" use the caves for c. 5 emptying cycles, the salt is plastic under pressure and then fills up the voids in the walls but risks collapsing under large pressure changes from the surrounding rock mass.

There are also risks with how quickly you empty spr. and a stressful course can form gas bubbles.

Those with experience in ultrasonic cleaning know that it is cavitation (small bubbles imploding towards the nightmare) that cleans, in this case reduced pressure risks forming gas bubbles that can literally tear the impellers inside.

I have personal experience in the subject through previous work.

According to American law (Energy Policy and Conservation Act), the Ministry of Energy may not carry out a limited drawdown if the inventory falls below 252.4 million barrels.

Exceptions can be made in the event of a "Severe Energy Supply Interruption" (Severe Energy Supply Interruption), the president can order withdrawals even below this level, but it is considered an absolute emergency.

Spr was at c. 392m in May, c. 140m from the legal floor, and will be at c. 220m if 172m is released in total, so well below the legal limit unless it starts being paid back to stock with interest.

There will be some problems, however, because the market wants the oil out to the raft due to demand and there will be a fight for pipelines again, logistics will be put to the test again.

Theoretically, it is possible to fill up the 200m in 6.5 months, but it requires far too many parameters to be correct and most likely times that take the full -27 and half of -28 are required.

The companies that borrowed the oil have no interest in paying extra high costs for the oil now, to return it but wait until the price is lower, and they are the ones holding the baton.

Some smaller volumes have a reversal window starting as early as fall 2027, but it is the large volumes that should be in place until spring 2028 to restore inventory for the next presidential term and potential new crises.

All in all, this will affect the price for a very long time.

If you then take into account that it will be difficult for a while with oil demand due to production cuts and that the world has more stocks to fill, the price will be further increased.

The risk is also that countries will ensure

Hello!

I curse myself for being so bad at English and expressing myself correctly.

I have passed the level of 2m shares, nothing else.

Can certainly blame some on the translate program, but I should know better!

If you keep the link to the DB with forecast, you can also see in the future how things are moving and I might add it to the regular files.

The only problem is the manual entry of the day-by-day prices.

Sat and checked Nasa's satellite images to get an idea of ​​what happened in the "strait" and read out 5 hits with heat development.

How reliable it is I don't know but at 10 minute intervals I can see 1 hit happening (all time UTC) c. 21:30, the next c. 22:10 and three more hits c. 23:10.

10 minutes after each hit, the heat development is no longer there, so either the target is blown away or a warning shot.

Regarding the expectations for the earnings so far this year and the upcoming update, I would like to point out a few things.

1. SEA lags the price due to the construction of their payment structure, payment comes but a quarter later.

2. Q1 is not the quarter that prices will be seen especially by "we" selling 10-30 days in advance.

3. EnQuest has not used hedges but saved them for later so we are full, can't find the right words but, "exposed" to the DB price, money in fast is the most important thing at the moment.

Regards

Kamrat

Continue

Regarding Saudi's denial of use of bases and airspace, it is the "smoking gun" that made continued "project freedom" impossible:

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/saudi-arabia-derailed-project-freedom-by-banning-us-base-flights-3219514

https://investinglive.com/news/icymi-saudi-base-ban-forced-trump-to-pause-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-operation-20260507/

The IEA recently confirmed (in its April/May report) that global stocks outside the Middle East fell by a whopping 205 million barrels in March/April.

That Thailand is now forced to use its emergency stocks (despite a huge deficit in its oil fund of 63 billion baht) is proof that Javier Blas is right: The physical market "doesn't lie":

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026

"The paper market is currently pricing in a 'perfect outcome' that ignores the laws of physics and logistics.

When Friday's deadline passes and the physical reality of empty tanks in Cushing and Asia hits, the correction will be swift.

I'd rather stick with physical producers like ENQ/HBR than bet on a one-sided skeleton deal signed under duress."

Regards

Kamrat

ps/ I'd pass 2m shares /ds

Hi Romaron,

Does not follow any source and does not sit with any fortune teller either.

The reality is that in many places in Thailand it is "pat on the door", the supply is simply there even if you would like to buy, regardless of the price, and it is likely that this also applies to other countries in Asia and Africa.

The facts are telling when it comes to the price of oil for the rest of the year, even if they were to open Hormuz now, when it actually takes time to queue out of the strait with 2-3 weeks (applies only if it is fully opened), then ship it to where they are going, queue for days to unload the cargo when there are too many boats to the same destinations, and after that there is a queue on the raf.

It takes c. 3 months before boat traffic could flow normally, but everything after that lags behind.

For those who have released oil from storage, a long journey begins with refilling and it will take much longer than it took to release the oil (mark USA has barely even started releasing from spr but is forced to continue because of the price).

If you then look at what has been put out as well, you will notice that there will be difficulties.

Even the insurance market and shippers will have a time with higher prices and it will take a part of the coming years to use as well.

That's the mildest way I can describe the situation.

Anything that goes beyond that (for example, the peace seeker that is lying now and must be answered by Friday at the latest) prolongs the process.

Through leaks from Axiom, it emerges that the agreement itself is a "skeleton" where only the rough features are indicated (one sheet is enough) while the remaining subtitles are to be negotiated during a 30-day period.

The price is determined by supply and demand and there the raff are looking for oil because they have good margins but the supply is decreasing (stock drawdowns).

In this case, imo, the price is out of balance and will correct itself in the next week

What you could say about my criteria for the forecast is that I start from the above when I set the "price" while what has been is the reality.

In Sweden, the politicians go to the EU to get support for having lower fuel taxes (exceptions) than what is actually legal.

- So we can drive carefree all summer long, we don't have the same need for oil as other countries (yes, they don't think further than their noses, shameful).

to be continued