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Hi!
I hear a lot of pessimism here.
There is no way that I throw in the towel yet!
I think, as I'm basically quite pessimistic too, that Aloy will have a hard time winning but refuse to say never.
Obviously, the company's guidance for how epl should be withdrawn is unusable (according to own analysis, but do your own).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q_pW-o-lltxvhPWqxDEjdRsmREQXRGR_TdcvQFOqBJA/edit#gid=0
The bottom line is, in any case, there must be a return for investment.
Even if my "suggestion" is incorrect, it must be based on the same principles, so I believe that my horizontal forecast will be significantly better when the clouds have dissipated.
Aloy, there's still a chance...
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Questforoil,
It doesn't matter if they put another 50m on the market (c. 136k boepd) as the production will drop more in the same time.
There will not be any drill baby, drill...
Sensibly they should fill it now (while they can do it cheaply) and support their oil industry.
I dont think he's going to get another chance...
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Stevo 12 and all,
I did do a copy of the files with other price just to take off a bit of fear about low prices.
It's placed next to the ordinary now but I want you to know that I don't see that price realistically for more than a couple of months because it inhibits drilling and that's most easily seen in the shale industry.
I'll will take that away soon but I also want you to know that I care about your fear.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Stevo 12,
Thanks for the critic and I will explain what I have done to solve it.
1. About the calculation with vendor H1 -22 was that a part who was paid in H2 -21.
The prepaid part did lowering BP-sharing at H1 -22 and that's the reason why it is in the calc.
2. I imported wrong number to the box so it was a human default, thanks for let me know.
Another part about the interest is that all money who's not planned do I place at loan payment and that's not what I think so it will be some changes when they guiding what to do (and cost) for -23.
If they having early drills will some of the invest giving back a bit this year so we will see what happening.
3. I did have done count off $50m for GE in the fcf box of H2 -23.
About the oil price do I think that I have it.
I have seen GS and other financials go from one point to another in several years and now they are pessimistic.
It is two big things holding price back at moment:
China's lock-in and the value of the dollar.
You have seen the top of the dollar and china doesn't matter as there are not big builts as it normally is at this time of year.
If the lock-in will be scrapped there will be chaos with the prices, i'll think.
The strong dollar make it just now expensive to developing countries and keep them on saving mode.
There is so much to say about it but i'll think i'm right about the price.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I think that the old files where a bit sprawling so I'd make new.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
Don't look negatively at what epl costs, but see what's left afterwards.
If it is that all epl for -22 (even H1) shall be paid soon is my number for the year $16m too low.
I hope that I can get some critic of it and some respond about it.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
mrc,
You will have that automatically around -25 as that is the time for Seligi's gas to be called.
Why not now?
In this time they dont have use for the gas in that area (if they dont start to export).
In that time can they also started production at pm409.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Despite some delays with new wells etc, my guidance remains at 48.2k boepd for the full year thanks to good performance in new wells.
In that is not any more gas counted (as the capacity is higher) but its good to have a upside.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
mrc,
You are too optimistic.
They will have a higher capacity so its not all new production.
M y estimate for -22, 2 155 boepd of gas ~ 0,7865 mmboe /y.
Capacity will grow to 1,387 mmboe, so c. 0,6mmboe /y higher.
That is good news anyway.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I'm very pleased with the update.
Magnus is doing 1k better than my estimates.
Higher capacity for gas was a surprise .
Lower costs is telling me why my estimates (who uses former guided numbers) are too low.
The production, 46,5k, will be higher as the effect of new wells will work on longer time and we will have a great spring.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Romaron,
I'm calm too.
If you counting a number, before deduction for capex, that shall be taxed around 300-350 (with 35%) you need to have invest between $230-$270 in capex (+abex) to get low tax.
So $305m-$345m, including abex, needs to be invested and I don't see it as an obstacle with fcf (before epl) of +$500m as you still have a part of fcf to use with reducing debt and other things ( my fantasy can use it anyway).
Ok, there is a part that's not will be deducted as I dont really understand but we will figure that out (or someone else) but we doesn't have touch the company's possibility either.
Take new drilling installation on GE, you have the deprecation of five years and use it with pay it in that time, that just use 1/5 of the cost /year so you have more fcf left that year.
There must be a lot of things like that to put some money in and I dont exclude anything.
When investing in drilling you also got more production so its not all bad (EPL), but it's forced, so it's easy to hate.
I'll think that this will be good as we are in a good position (as we don't have to deduct so much debt but there is other company's who's not there and I'm sorry for them.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I've counted on H2 -23 and landed on c. $26m.
I suppose that the rest will be around that number too so maybe $52m in EPL for Enquest.
That's a lot better than I guided before and it's thanks' to IR who guided how to count.
I'll be back when I can show the numbers.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
There is not far away from what I posted the other day and I only have to do some small changes.
This doesn't do anything big on my view on Enquest as it is so cheap.
About the hedges, 1750m b with floor and rof ($77) for -23, I'm sure that they solve it and the other part of hedge did they talked about only floor.
*Damed, I cant be in several places all time, I'd have to focus on the changes now, so have a nice day.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
TWalbyoff,
Even if Pelle did it first and I'm late can I confirm he's number, ebitda around 1bn (Iv'e got it just over).
What I think about stresstest...useless, that number cant be seen for longer time than a couple of month in any case I see.
In normal when it have been a big drop in oil price it have felled for just a short time (2-3 months) and then moved up to a survive level and then further and it have been drops because of oil inventory.
This time is the survive level higher (you see it when production drops on quite high level) and the oil inventory is very low.
If you see that inventory is rising on month basis you'll have to look at it one more time.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
I have worked on new files and they are ready now: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
Of course, I will also answer any questions (if I can).
Due to the strong dollar, the estimates are lowered, although I believe in a higher price in the future.
I would like to be low in order to increase the estimates during the year but do not rule out a temporary lowering but will use inertia to not "jump around" as many pundits (GS etc.) do.
Also corrected the EPL by calculating it without interest costs and with 35%.
In addition, with the right capex / six months.
Good luck.
Regards/Kamrat
Hi!
Romaron,
Convicted innocent but found wft, you will get your pint (doesn't answer to Pelle).
However, my ancestry is from Belgium (the Walloons) and Finland and you are condemned to drink it in my company.
Regards/Kamrat