Member Info for Tarmak

Hi,

Interest from here seems cool and I won't write any more after this time.

I recommend entering this year's competition where first prize is currently £134 and fifth place generates £45.

It is free to participate and your participant number must be expressed in pence with two decimal places.

If the numbers are occupied by another participant, it will be moved up 0.05p until a free number is found.

The last date for participation is Friday 8/3.

Other information is in the previous message

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

All,

Things are clearer now and some money has been collected and 1200 shares have been bought.

The profit plan is now based on £, which is logical, as the shares bought are precisely in £.

The pot is currently £257 giving a first place value of £77 and a fifth place value of £26.

The competition is free and open but it may be an advantage to wait for guidance from the company.

So far, there is 1 participant who has been so sure of his number that he has already taken a seat.

The last day to participate is Friday 8/3, while any support payments (completely voluntary) will be open all year in order to increase the pot.

Rules etc. are in the file "Competition -24"

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=drive_link

Regards/Kamrat

After the delisting in Sweden, the discord has changed shape and the titles have become English.

It is also written more in English and I think it would suit more people than before.

The Swedish share of shareholders should decrease over time, so an adjustment was necessary to keep interest up.

Hence the competition.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

A decision was made to organize a competition where it is necessary to dot in the closing rate for -24 and my warm recommendation is that everyone participates

The prizes are monetary prizes and there is no cost to participate (the board has donated money to the cause).

For those who still want to contribute to raising the pot, the information is in the file "Competition -24".

For those with low holdings, I recommend buying shares rather than contributing, because that is the "right way to go"!

The competition will be open until 2-3 weeks after the company has guided its figures for the year.

Depending on how big the sum in the pot is, the number of winners will vary between 5 and 10 people.

The different profit levels are presented in the file.

Taken numbers are those with a name in front of the sum, while the others are merely examples of guessed rates.

The files are partially reworked in preparation for semi-annual updates (gets easier right then) and updated with flight comebacks and Kraken reliefs.

That the flight in total increased by 12% compared to -19 is startling and should be monitored (will update and remove outdated years soon).

The Kraken discharges show well before the NSTA or the company reports and can also be seen as important.

The files:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11AHDnjXS7VgV1gFAFLziA4-Qi0xyAH_cECWGOCFH0pg/edit?usp=sharing

Good luck!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Tigar,

Always interesting what you write.

But yo're wrong about the investment.

Just use my mind, so it can be a bit different, they paid c. $75m (with c. $40m in cash) back in -14?

A good business as GE also can be.

Lets hope on PM409 with 85% contract!

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

Thanks for the critic even if it make me confused.

I need time to understand that part of Malaysia and have to go from the beginning.

At this time is gross production 16-17k there.

EnQuest presented numbers is 1/2-part and I think that is the 50/50 contract working including that 10%.

From that 8-8,5 shall psc been taken and these 16-17 have been transformed to c. 5,3-5,7 paid boe.

How would you count from these 16-17k?

Its great to be criticised as it can bring more secured numbers.

I'm still a rookie on this and parts in the files are difficult.

Do you want to join me with the files?

( kamrattarmak@gmail.com )

I want you to know that there are one more who's have been asked (waiting for answer) but it would work better with three.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

The road ahead can be tricky.

Note 24: This is lease-parts. Total undiscounted lease payments 12,116. My estimated 14m is a bit too high.

Add AK and you got my number.

On page 19 of the report it appears that the contract is 50/50 for PM8/Seligi (however, it does not appear that Seligi's gas is excluded).

Out of 100% production, 50% is presented by the company.

The part that I present as psc is thus 33% of 50% production.

Whether it is correct in my calculation to reduce with capex and opex is tricky, as it may have already been done before the split, so I cross it out.

Turns out I'm getting a bit closer to your numbers.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

Thanks for responding.

I use the fee of day rate for AK, who is 70,5% of 447.352 /d now (will sink to 70,5% of 139.860 /d in April -25) and add some small posts (14m).

That gives AK an annual leasing cost of 115.114.853 now and 35.989.475 from April -25

It almost matches the financial lease (a bit higher).

I cant see your number so it is hard to check them out.

2. The basic contract on PM8/Seligi (excluding Seligi's gas) is 50%, so yo'r right there.

Seligi's gas is 15% + streaming revenue for the rest.

For PM409 it is 85%.

After that is the number you see when the company show them but it is before psc.

The psc contract changes with the price (functions as a hedge).

Stayed around 30-31 percent at low prices but increased with higher oil prices to c.35%.

My 33% may be low.

Want to dig?

http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/CAWS4/MalaysianPSC.pdf

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I had a revision and simplified more.

Hoping for a response on how you experience the files.

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Papegoja,

What may not be understood from the UK is that share ownership in Sweden is complex and that there are different ways of owning them and different rules depending on where you own them.

1. endowment insurance, KF, not transferable, so to change operator a sale is required.

2. Individual pension savings, IPS, portable

3. regular depot

At present, it is one player, the bank SEB, that offers normal trading of the share where no telephone order is required and it has only been a few days since it was made clear.

Those who drew the nit lottery have Nordnet as their bank, with KF, which can neither manage trading nor convert the share.

When asked directly if they recommend their customers with EnQuest as a holding to change operators, I received the answer that it was a reasonable assumption!

If you also sit with leverage and are forced to sell an extra depressed share, it is less fun.

A single player that offers decent terms when trading on the LSE!

I don't think the company has understood that.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I'm still going but my time is poor caused of better shape!

(I have to do other things when I can and the handball season is just started)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hyYHLfYge_DakjYd4BoRn8hgXfNePCT76QWUTjqY9ZA/edit?usp=sharing

The files are updated but part of it will be gone with next update.

Remaining files after next update

Forecast -23, -24 and a new, -25 ongoing

Tävling -23

OGA (changed, based on company updates and forecast)

Seligi gas

Kraken loads (not with all fact's)

Key figures

Flights

Calculations

If anyone want to keep the other, take a copy.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Martinen,

Its 22,8%.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Tigar,

I can only agree with what you write but do not think it will come true!

As for the EPL, the hope of many is that it will be removed, but I don't think that will work politically.

My hopes are an increase in the floor level which adjusted for inflation would be good just $20 higher /barrel, approvals of hedges as well as settlement as deductions.

I think it would gain momentum in the UK, but still with the understanding that a certain amount is taxed at "excess prices".

There will probably be something positive on the green part also during the autumn and I hope for clear and simple calculations and the possibility of deductions against the EPL.

For EnQuest, things look brighter, despite epl, with better oil prices.

I might add that the estimate for -24 has been lowered but still leans towards FCF $400m.

That sanctioned countries were allowed to run rampant freely and large releases from strategic stocks have made it difficult to predict correctly.

I believe that, since stock clearances of the dignity that have been will not be repeated, that I will be on the right side when it comes to the price.

The fact that demand is at a record high will also contribute to that.

Those waiting for an update from the company can kindly wait until the half-year results in September when it is expected to get answers on how the Magnus injector (June) works, new well on Golden Eagle (June) and Alba (July and August), the performance of the kraken and the drilling on PM409 .

As for Kraken, I expect relief around August 4th, so it should be time for an announcement soon.

That this year's flights will break records this year can soon be confirmed as it is so high above previous records (check flights):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B_CRTKKSEd8vbDhzoXtwZK2nAUX_XQVqjnVvls-lWQc/edit?usp=sharing

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

I have some more time now and what I can see is it (BP-cash) correct.

In the file, row 42, you got "Magnus performance & sharing BP".

I add profit from oil & gas before I count these 37,5% for share.

I see that I still have to work on my English and this is a pleasure way to do it.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Onedb,

You're making a toss up, think again!

The share price (sp) does not set the dividend, it is the profitability.

Since they said that it should be long-term and sustainable, I don't believe in such a high dividend either, but at the same time, -24 looks to be able to deliver right from the start, which opens up decent and early bb in addition to dividends.

Reasonably good oil price can make bb much bigger so we have to hope for that.

I believe in c. 2p as I think that $38m is sustainable !

Just for fun:

This was from "the fox" (Räven) at discord:

https://discord.com/channels/902451679776092230/902456275932172338/1132660629442928781

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Oxygen,

You have to see the fun with it and the arguing around it.

A big THANK YOU to Romaron who organized the previous round.

At discord we did do one for this year (too late to participate now) and there is 64 participant.

The price fight and the production fight, two fight's who can be nice to follow and it is presented in my files.

I think that it will be c. 2p ( c.27 öre) in divi during -24 and that the oil-price will decide how much repurchase of own shares it will be.

The outlook for -24 looks brilliant and I hope I get it right.

In any case, one thing is clear: as soon as netdebt/ebitda~0.5, they can start buybacks as the decision was taken at the AGM.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Stevo12,

Thank´s for the critic, it gives me a lot.

I'm happy to get respons and sorry for the long delay of answer you.

My time is still a bit short but I'll do my very best.

Your observation skills about the gas (Magnus) is correct and as the part of gas there is c. 18% will I do a change.

The part of oil to BP is correct and the whole will be when I have added the part of gas.

I fix it in the end of this week.

The EPL (70m) is correct as we got that part who was paid earlier back as we don't had to do the pay before Oct -23 (so it is the whole sum now.

About the interest so have I changed the way of show the calculation but the sum is around the same and it is as we don't pay interest of down-paid interest.

I say that we will pay around $60m this year in interest and that gives my ~5,6%.

The GE- $50m is not in fcf as I use my valuation of EnQuest without that part.

But it is a * on fcf and a explanation in the row below (* Before $50m additional pay GE in H2).

Finland is waiting for me and that's my destination for tomorrow.

I hope that everyone had/shall have the best time during vacation.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I just want to send out my files and a call to calculate EV (Market Cap + Net.Debt) and check which tax deductions the company has.

I would like to say that it looks free and you get a lot for your money!

The files: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

This is the last thing I do before vacation and I hope you will have an 110% -too.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

AIMOilking,

The epl who shall be paid this October is from -22.

The paid amount in November 22 was paid back in March so it will be paid with fully amount.

I know that it talks about $75m (I have $70m) but after this floor on the price is I not sure if they count back.

As they dont sure how they shall count is it hard to count at but if it is retroactively I'll say that it will be around $20m to pay.

The epl for -23 will be paid in October -24.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Seekforde,

I really like numbers and that people show them make me happy =)

One wrong thing do you have about epl and that is the amount that will be $70m to pay.

That is caused that the payment in Dec -22 was repaid to the company in March.

Have a nice summer now (I will).

Regards/Kamrat