a 'smart' investment (repost)20 Oct 2022 09:10
[re-posting as this was deleted as so many posts have been]
Firstly, I've been wrong about Valereum. I really thought it would have collapsed by now, and I don't think that will happen for quite some time. I'm still positive it will, but I think it will take quite some time. Possibly a year or more, and I think the SP may well grow again before it declines and then collapses.
For a collapse to happen the TG cult members needs to lose confidence and I think they continue to buy in to the ramping 'pot of gold' narrative. I think they still feel 13p is a 'bargain' and just think there timing was poor if they got in at 50p plus. They will probably think the same when it drops to 5p.
I think the wider economic situation really helps avoid a collapse in confidence- as the 'markets are down' is a great 'explanation' for the decline (despite it being down a LOT more than the markets).
But the wider thing is the genius of the proposition, which is perfect for pump and dump type set up. If you don't really have an underlying business, wouldn't it be useful if you had:
1. An external force that can be blamed for no news or progress, which is outside of your control. Maybe a regulator...
2. A 'theme' which everyone has heard about but few really understand and that is very complex. Something where it's quite easy to sound smart even if the details are wrong, meaningless or generic statements. And something that people can credibly think could be the next 'dot com boom' and believe could be HUGE. Blockchain for instance...
And while a NO on regulatory approval is clearly the END (which they've already set up counter with 'oh we still have NFT, bla bla') a YES is only the very start of building something significant. This part is under-estimated with the TG group, so it will be a great hook to hang more ramping off if they manage it (I don't think they will get approval, but it's not impossible).
That combination really helps people dismiss all the obvious red flags- a closed TG group which is heavily controlled by just a few small players with a lot to gain (even if they are positioned as 'independent' and just 'shareholders like you' which they are clearly not).And the fact that the major players seem to have a history of doing this multiple times before.
My prediction is that this LSE chat will be going for quite some time. What may change that is this share's tiny trading volume and the current economic situation. It won't take that many people getting into trouble with mortgage etc who just HAVE to sell even if they still believe. That risks there just not being demand for even the 'bargain entry point' for the small number of true believers that they still have.
So this is a smart investment, if only for those who a driving the TG group and/or who were in at the very beginning and know that the actual proposition has nothing to do with 'transforming the financial industry'.
It is sad (if fascinating) to watch this.