Member Info for Stupmy

POO dropped on US open, US markets making new highs and EZJ trying to move to the upside. I guess EZJ showing some life is related to spot oil

Don't tell your friend how much you love it.

I've been a few times Thumper and never had a problem even late at night. I guess it makes sense to be aware though. I remember that Hotel des Arts impressed me a lot, but that was a long time ago. Apparently Eric Clapton has stayed there, if you like that sort of thing.

Second Stille's view on BCN, I've seen a guy robbed by a gang of distraction thieves, my son had his mobile stolen on Las Ramblas and a friend had both his work and personal phone stolen in an aggressive, threatening and open attack on Las Ramblas. Pay attention and don't draw attention to yourself. Having said that I understand that there's a lot of phone theft in London also

I guess the anti-tourist demos in Spain are another factor. The popular press (not a good source of info, unless checked carefully) suggest some spanish resorts are way off their normal numbers of tourists (high % of Brits normally), suggesting that travel to Spain from the UK is being reduced. Maybe people fly to other countries and so balance the spanish drop? Xhita is on top of what's happening in Spain so her view on that would seem important.

I accept that it's currently largely consumer caution PC

"...as the the consumer will never give up his/her holidays."

"they are merely booking nearer to departure date than previously, according to Jet2, and clearly looking for maybe late deals" but this caution does suggest the possibility that things are going the wrong way for the moment and also supports the view the discretionaly spend could be an early victim of let's say 'poor visibility'. Reeves needs more money and increasing the tax burden is clearly a possible way to get it.

"Jet2 still has 9% more seats on sale this year, compared to last year, Winter 24/25": That added capacity was built in based on optimistic (I'm not saying unrealistic as only time will tell us that) views on future demand. If demand falls in real terms rather that slows/stalls, that extra capacity will come round to bite the backsides of the leisure companies that put it in place.

I don't want to get too carried away with this as mostly I focus on charts/TA and most frequently have to work out why a target was hit, after it was hit (rather than knowing it in advance; I do try to get a feel for things in advance but am so frequently wrong that I have to admit to have limit forward visibility). From a chart perspective, the SP is currently doing what I thought it would do. In my view the drop is not over and we are likely to see 454ish (possible bounce there?) and at some point 435 or lower. As previously stated, I don't think 370 is out of the question. It's why I make mostly very prudent trades before a SP hits my target areas. In the past, when I was less prudent, I'd get a few wins then trapped into a position for a lengthy period as it fell. Now I wait for the drops for large trades and then work out whether there's any reason not to enter. If there isn't, I build much larger positions. Since March/April, I've built no substantial positions, I've just waited and played around with small trades.

Funny reading this 'The consumer is slowing down, cutting back... the airlines will be the first smashed' today. For the last goodness knows how long (presumably since COVID), this sort of view has been mercilessly derided as the the consumer will never give up his/her holidays. Now it's happening, as it happens every time the consumer is hit in the pocket, by inflation, job losses, salary freezes etc, it's fashionable again to take this view. What a crazy world. Since it always happens, why did those who argued it couldn't happen now believe that "This time it's different". It was alway obvious that if the consumer is hit in the pocket then discretionary spend would be reduced.

Chart doesn't look very optimistic and the price looks likely to close below the low at the end of July (around 307-312; depending on whether you take the absolute low or the closing price between 29-31st July). A close below 307 significantly increases the chance of the price dropping to 240 or lower. In that respect I think Geko's view is not that unlikely in my view. Let's see where we close. I don't have a position and I'd like to see 240 before considering entering again, so for those that like sound bites, you can use that ridiculous line 'you're talking your own book'. That really is a stinker of a line that one.

I'm no expert on it Xhita, but I know for a fact some large pharma companies are matching rhetoric with significant action. I'm not even sure that Pharma will get a better price. This issue on overpriced drugs in the US relates to the intermediaries between pharma and the end user. I think (this would need checking) about 50% of the cost of drugs is related to distribution. Pharma might be able to maintain their margins with US production, but I doubt they'd increase the price to the end user.

As you suggest, other sectors may be doing the opposite. Very intersting, whatever the end result. I suspect it'll end up hurting a lot of workers.

In the short term Xhita, Trump's tariffs have actually been relatively successful in onshoring production. Check out what the pharma industry are doing, but it's not just pharma.

Interestingly a US judge ruled the tariffs illegal. Be interesting to see how that plays out, but I'd imagine the judges view will lose him/her their job and Trump will ignore the statutes. But that's still short term. We have to see how the longer term pans out. What if his health fails (for example) and he's removed. Would a successor follow his ideas? If the US doesn't follow through, then the money being spent on onshoring production (and therefore jobs) might look like money wasted. They're the worlds biggest consumers and many (most) countries will not stare them down.

Might be about to retest the 482/483 level. There's a very good chance it won't hold. Not sure if there's a connection (hedging makes spot oil prices less impt) but POO is rising.

I guess Xhita will check that. Thanks though. Without even looking at charts I have 455/435 and 370 areas lodged in my memory for taking a closer look if any of those levels are hit.

482/483 looks very likely to be tested. First things first, let's see whether that brings buyers in. A close below that strengthens the case for 455 etc.

Find the post Xhita and post it, nothing wrong with the truth and if I said that I'll do my best to figure out why. I don't frequently put time limits on my views so that's seems way off, I don't remember saying 320 and a quick look at my charts doesn't immediately pick that up as a likelihood. If you prove I said that, I'll try to work out why I said it.

Nope, I've not put a timeline on anything as I can't do that. I see 370 as a possibility, not sure I said 320.

A close below 482 would be a worry for the bulls. That's just the low from Jul 30th. I hold my previous view that 435 or lower is likely and that 370 or lower is not out of the question.

Ideally, as far as SP is concerned, it should be neither negative nor positive. I should be neutral if the buy backs are done well. But that's simply a view based on SP now. Obviously, over time, if shares are bought back and cancelled, the free float reduces and theoretically the total liquidity reduces. In that case, as the company continues to deliver, then the upside should be exagerated compared to before buy backs. Obviously, if the company doesn't deliver, then any bad news might give exagerated falls. Worth understanding if you trade actively as those exagerated swings are profit and loss to us.

That's my point, is this just nonsense? It seems completely at odds with what the company are reporting.

I got this alert this morning. It seems to be completely at odds with the recent RNS and my take on HBR. Is it total nonsense? Can anyone explain why they see these risks?

"New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 41% per year for the foreseeable future.

This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns.

Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company:

Major Risks

Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows.

Paying a dividend despite being loss-making.

Cash payout ratio: 151%

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 41% per year for the foreseeable future.

Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (118% increase in shares outstanding)."

New, there's a gap on open today on the daily chart from 204 to 218 more or less. Out of hours news, often happens. Sometimes those gaps hold, sometimes they fill. I think this one will fill. POO showing further weakness at the moment. Maybe that's enough? Doesn't really matter, but I don't want to further expose myself to HBR without having a significant benefit with respect to entry price.

NSS if I've called it wrong, I'm sitting pretty on my share holding. If I've called it right I can add back and reduce my entry level (from memory around 228). If nothing much happens I'll take a divi that will very quickly wipe out the loss I'm sat on from my poor entry level. I'm playing all sides, with a view to not making a loss, taking a divi and probably ending up with a capital gain (substantial I think) within a reasonable time frame. Of course something could go wrong, but I think with a company as good as HBR seems to be I feel pretty good about where I am.