Member Info for Stupmy

PC, does the money that WG will get from todays disposal reduce the 450million that is apparently needed to get WG back on track? I.e. from 450 to 300 million?

I had the view that it could have been an attempt to sway SH's into accepting 35p. Head off being forced into a higher offer.

Do you know if that deal reduces the need for a cash injection from 450 to 300 million (roughly)?

Bob, yesterdays article on SID's position seemed to confirm what you learned and posted. So thanks again for that.

Funny that the disposal raised as much as the market CAP (127 million pounds.

Does it mean that the cash injection need has gone from 450 to 300 million?

Does that imply that we need only a 300 million cash injection now to keep the business on track?

Makes sense LW. Couldn't agree more, not wise to have too many high riskers at the same time. Also not wise to be too heavy (or involved at all) over out of hours news events (can be brutal).

I took profit on that, then went short (and too loss!) and now will sit out as I think it could retrace to 240 area. I don't know when though and 435 area is also possible. Anyway I'm out for now.

Might come down to some kind of bias. I can easily accept the possibility that the price will fall from here. At the moment I'm still viewing it as more likely to rise. Very difficult to have confidence in what'll happen next. I guess that's what risk control is about.

I've tried to align short positions and SP on YOU and OCDO. Data from LSE for shorts/chart from IG.

For YOU I have only short data from May 2024. That seems to show that shorts were late to open, but have subsequently been right if you view the Shorts as taking the view that YOU SP would fall.

Chart 2 has data from 2020 to 2025. Shorts more substantial on OCDO. Once again, late to open (but they got a positve result). SP rose significantly against them at what looked like a/the bottom in August Sept 2023 and Short exposure fell back. Jan 2024 shorts built up again and there has been a 'shallow' decline in SP since that, but the chart suggests reducing returns for the Shorts over time and that they are reducing in size over the same period. Currently, the chart suggests the possibility that we're close to a/the bottom.

For YOU, I think a decent bounce or even a reversal is entirely possible, but only time will tell. From these charts I'd say that for YOU shorts have been correct but for OCADO it's been a mixed bag. They are not always right.

YOU: https://screenrec.com/share/QhysqcIJDt

OCDO: https://screenrec.com/share/AwWclp4n31

On the one hand that's worrying, but I struggle to understand what it really means. So, those shorts are being maintained/added to for a total of 2.5%. The SP has fallen hard and is currently rangebound (just jumped to 329!). But if you compare it to say CBG with total shorts of 3.25% and a SP that is rising quite consistently and quite strongly into the decisions for motor insurance policy misselling then I have to ask myself what these shorts mean to us as investors/traders? CBG rising strongly with a higher % short than YOU which has been falling. I struggle to see a clear relationship between the shorts and the SP. These are relatively modest short levels also.

I'm trying to learn some new bits and pieces and while looking at YOU chart it's clear that this type of consolidation doesn't happen often. The last time I can see something similar is March this year. That consolidation led to a small dummy drop, a move back to the consolidation area to peak around 323 and then a further fall in price to 240. The current consolidation event is interesting in that it's happening across an almost identical price band (313-325.5). I'll have to spend more time using these new tools to get a feel for direction, but before 'trying something new', I had been quite bullish. I'm less confident for the moment, but have accumulated 2.5 x more shares than I previously had at a price of 325.

Thanks Bob

Lovely pattern of consolidation since the drop. A close above 325 might be bullish. Volume very low, but don't seem to be any sellers around for the moment. I had thought we might get a fake downward break below 312/313, but we've not seen that yet. I would add some if we do see it, but think we're bottoming for the moment. Maybe some buying before Aug 5th?

I hope you're right Medjed. No direct experience myself, just came over as pretty negative to be minded to recommend a 35p per share offer.

The worry for me medjed is that the Board were 'minded to recommend' a 35p offer. That sounds to me as though the problems are serious. Would be great if we get more, but that 'minded to recommend' sounds quite negative for SH's.

It's not deliberately slow and protracted. All parties are doing what needs to be done and waiting for whatever information they feel they're currently missing.

I agree that rival bidders could push up any potential offer price, but so far there is no evidence of rival bidders.

Sujood you're wrong. I'm guessing you haven't followed the story or can't be bothered to do your own research. The offer being discussed is 35p per share. WG are minded to recommend it. How you can read that as a rejection of the this potential offer I don't know.

That makes sense LW, but would have the logical target around 338 which has gone already so back to minor supports and trendlines plus watching for a turn I guess.

I looked at it yesterday briefly, I guess I know the 'M' pattern as double top, but I see the value in calling it an M pattern for intra-trend setups. So what would you have as a target if it was what you thought it was? We've dropped below my idea of 345 and I'm no looking to trendlines and supports for an idea of where buyers might try to enter?

Can't help wondering whether the drop below 329 is indicating a much higher chance of a fall to 318 area. I'm watching really closely as the SP seems to represent a decent entry to me. Certainly very interesting price movements today on low volume.