Member Info for Stupmy

Purely TA NSS, I haven\t sold a share, but I closed my leveraged position because I think the SP will come back to fill the gap up from this morning. The reason? Because it always has in the past. Why bet against it? If it doesn't come back, I have my long position in shares. I still think 150 is not unlikely and will still be looking to add back at that level. It's just what seems to be more likely than not. 202 in the near future.

What's not like? In my view, what's not to like is the probability that the SP will come back down to 202 or lower in the near future. I closed my leveraged long positions on todays rise. Managed a profit after sitting on loss making positions for weeks.

Worth watching for Blaire's sells (EIG). SP has almost always fallen soon afterwards. Either his selling is triggering the falls, he's timing SP movements quite well. I have his last sell on Mar 25th (6.6million shares). I've not looked for more recent selling specifically, but will get onto that.

I had to look that up, despite having lived in Scotland for 3yrs and visiting the west coast frequently for the mountains, lochs and sea. I had never heard of Benbecula. Now I have.

linek, check out this guy for a daily 20min update on general markets. If you make a habit of listening to him, it could start to impact your mindset and help your decision making. Really is a lot to learn from Tom. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk4z5wuIDDw

Racism is really interesting. I'm guessing it's based in tribalism and comes from competition for land and resource, particularly as a tribe expands and treads on the toes of a neighbouring tribe. You see it based on natinoality (US/Russia or China), shirt colour (crypts vs bloods), skin colour and I guess other attributes related to and recognisable in a group (e.g. Religious factions. It all makes sense when it comes down to territory and resource in an evolutionary sense. But the other factor I can think of is the character of the leaders and the expectations people have in their leaders. If 'two tribes go to war', you get a resolution if one leader, with the support of his or her people gave up his/her leadership position in exchange for a negotiated longer term peace in the combined interests of both tribes. That rarely seems to happen and the longer term peace often comes from one tribe beating the other into submission or even aniahlating them and appropriating their resource and land. That's human nature and I doubt it will ever improve. But I do think there are kind of tribes that are not obvious as a tightly knit group. They transcend shirt or skin colour or nationality. In all tribes there are good and bad people (better described perhaps as a 'right old mix of persolity types'). We don't see it in the news about the tribe of the 'law-abiding, decent hard working folk) fighting against the 'criminal, scrounging, work-shy' folk. Both of those groups contain all shirt colours, nationalities etc) but are not easy to define in terms of a group. I guess as they can't be easily defined, they don't attract the same level of negative attention. I find it fascinating that traits in human nature that could probably be negated, continue to drive our current cultures and future prospects. Maybe there's a function of this tribalism that remains in the general interest longer term. I hope not, it tires me out reading all of the apparently nonsensical awfullness I have to read each day.

Thanks Thumper, the video isn't about trading/investing, it's more about laziness leaving us exposed to starting believe nonsense, rather than challenging the nonsense. Every bb is a group and you see on all of the more active ones, people making comments/holding beliefs that are not thought out, they're learned, often from the internet. The video essentially encourages us to challenge what is presented to us and by doing that we have a chance of making better decisions. Nowhere is that more important than trading/investing, where we're constantly and deliberately wrong footed by a non-benign media. Was it Elders book that I suggested? A goode easy to read entry to a different way of thinking. I can give you more sources, but starting with basics is a good place to start. Tell me if you're interested.

Thanks G. I think the short video is interesting and thought provoking and Bonhoeffer, died for his resistance to giving up his independent thought.

"Well that made me chuckle. Have a look back and you will see that it was another poster, not me, that made that call"

Just looked at a chart LW/PI. Could easily have been me. I'm not going search back to get the wording exact, but I have 230is as a TA based possibility after the proce faded/faked to the downside after a good period of consolidation in what I was interpreting as a rectangle pattern. I very much doubt I said it was a likely target, rather a possibility that concerned me. As stated, I sold all, max price I got was around 355-356, so well off the peak, but I was selling in 10k chunks and was struggling to find buyers for 10 k shares a go. This market is not very liquid. I ended up using limit sells and go shot of my 50k shares in 5 batches of 10k. That illiquidity, my lack of conviction in the RNS which I found very vague, made me very happy to get out. 230 is not a big concern to me now after the upside move (it's invalidated), but I expect us to revisit 305 area or lower. I hold no shares. I would buy back if the price did fall to that level. Otherwise, there are many opportunities worth waiting for etc, etc so I'm happy to hold some cash until I see a good one. I personally believe the general markets are risky and worry about being over-extended at the moment. If we did get a fall back, I'd start to see some of the opportunities I'm hoping for.

In short PI/LW I'm happy to believe the 230 figure could have come from me. But you're stretching it PI to say I called it as likely. It was at the time a 'perceived risk'.

Well, I guess time-frame is important with statements like the share is moribund. The way I understand it, MM's do try to match buyers and sellers, but at least in the most honest sense of them, they're not trying to change the SP. At certain times, buyers and sellers lack conviction on direction. Under those circumstances, price isn't likely to move much. Interestingly volume is aligned with base volume over the last few months at least, that suggests there isn't a lack of interest in EZJ, just a lack of agreement between bears and bulls. For me, if we closed over 508 (preferably over 510) then we'd have substantially increased the chance of moving to 520-521 area. I could even see the possibility of a retest of the highs areound 590. Any sort of bad news however could have us down quickly to 435 area or even lower. I'm tempted to take small trades to the long side, but would not commit a large amount of capital to an upside bet. If however we saw 435 or better still 370ish, then I'd almost certainly build a large position. So I guess for me, like the market in general and related to you comment on the market being moribund, I have little conviction for the moment on SP direction.

This conspiracy theory related to MM's is a common one. EZJ is FTSE 100 and trades on SETS. For SETS stocks, liquidity is generally good and buyers and sells are matched electronically on the whole. MM's are not central to matching bid-ask and spreads are tight. In theory the SP is moved by the bid-ask spread and the balance between buyers and sellers. MM's are largely bypassed.

I've been watching a really interesting video youtube about 'stupidity'. I'm not being cheeky or critical, I'm vulnerable as everyone is. I try to resist as much as I can and think independently. Have a look at this 20m video. I think it's important and highlights the need to question easy 'ideas' and conspiracy type comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sfekgjfh1Rk

Bots, I'm starting to think I'm mixing you up with someone else. I thought you were kind of balanced/serious/sensible, now we've had 'end of' (which essentially means you are a moron if you use the expression) and now it"s 'wetting their pants'to describe anyone who says something that doesn't conform to your bull case.

I'm oving from thinking you're worth reading to you're actually a moron.

Such is life NSS, big old drop in POO, might be hard to fight against that.

Could you explain that Garonne, for example how are the market makers killing it, why are they killing it and how can it be moribund if it's moved from 400p on mar 24th to almost 590 on June 9th and back to 481 on Jul 30th.. That seems anything but moribund?

I personlly don't think there's a conspiracy.

Thanks tmnky, I just googled that (goodness knows if the result is reliable as per the discussion below) and here's the result: You must be a UK resident to open a SIPP, although non-UK residents can hold one. If you are not a UK taxpayer you will not receive tax relief on your contributions. Remember, a SIPP is suitable for people who are happy to make their own investment decisions.

Bots, you wrote this below (searched it). Does that mean that divis in a SIPP that are not re-invested, attract income tax? I had assumed that you just pay the tax when you access the money from the pension?

"🛡️ Tax-Efficient Wrappers

If your shares are held in a Stocks & Shares ISA or SIPP, then:

• No income tax or CGT is due on reinvested dividends or gains from sale.

• These wrappers are the most tax-efficient way to invest in dividend-paying stocks A."

I didn't know that, so it's useful information to me. Theoretically that could save me 30% tax on the dividends so it'll be well worth looking into for me.

I hadn't seen that Lorenzo, but agree it can provide opportunity.

I guess, the price was pushed down moving into results on the expectation of something worse. Rightly or wrongly, I've sold the lot and am grateful to have had the opportunity to get out wtih 30p profit. I'm back on the sidelines. I didn't expect the chance to get out.

Looks fairly neutral to me too, just have to wait to see how the market reacts to it.

Have done the same thing myself. All in the lap of the gods now. No increase in volume, no big price movement, no idea really. I guess at the moment I favour down and it could be to 230 or lower. Hope not.

You seem as moody as Mike Bots, what's with the arrogant 'end of' nonsense?

Anyway, right or wrong about tax and I didn't suggest you were wrong, there are different reasons for different people in different countries favouring buybacks over divis.

In the past,if you weren't earning a lot from shares (from memory up to 12 or 13k?), the UK was a good place to be as there was no capital gains to pay. Over recent years they've really dropped the levels and from memory, your 3k sounds right. Once you start earning a lot more than 12k, those benefits don't seem so important.