Member Info for Stupmy

Well, I bought 472 and 476. I dropped half just now at just under 492.

Spin, I think we are very likely to see 12.2 or lower again in the near future from a TA perspective unless there is some positive news to push us north. If we drift, I think 12.2 is probable

Justfencing, I have it coming off to 500 or below. Can't say whether that will be achieved today or not (making calls based on time is very difficult). If the SP were to close below 500, then I personally think 475 becomes quite likely. For clarity, I do think 475 or lower is quite likely here.

WackWack, I could easily be wrong. Worth considering also that I'm not 'focussed' on TUI, I track a number of shares and get invovled when I think that 'downside risks' (as I see them) are removed and when it seems like buyers are showing an interest. For the moment, I could envisage the further potential dilution reducing buying interest. Now that SH's (I'm not currently exposed) have voted to delist from LSE, it'll take until June for the process to complete (from what I've read). I'd guess we have until June to watch the SP come off in the UK now. Again I'm not sure how this works, but overall, why would you buy in London when you know it will delist by sometime in June. I've said before, I'd be interested to see whether we get a divergence in SP now between LSE and Frankfurt. I think when we previously discussed it, the view here was that such a divergence would be unlikely to be useful for making a profit. For the moment, I still think the SP will fall, but I can't see into the future any better than anyone else.

" heard said many people have given up on saving for a mortgage and have decided it will never happen, they are now simply spending thier money on what they want, .."

How does that work Sully, you'd still have to pay rent and even at 5% for a mortgage, renting is more expensive than buying over time. Are you sure that leaves people with more money for 'discretionaries'?

It does have that effect on me too, at least to an extent.

I don't think for one second that the 456 area is out of the question, but I am speculatively hoping that it would represent 'the/a bottom' from which we might get some buying. As you say, shorts can stay in place for a good period. If they're not added to or removed, they become almost neutral so it's still possible to get some buying with them in place. Those holding shorts are often quite high conviction holders, although the reasons are not always directly linked to the target companies performance. Shorting seems to me to be a complex area of the markets. I've seen large short positions held over long and very painful positions of growth in a company (Weir grp a few years back is an example). I do watch shorts, but I don't let it rule what I'm doing. I'm often holding for a very short period.

I know some of you have said you think 456 is inevitable (I see that level as 458 for myself), but I'm not sure it's guaranteed we'll get there (FOMO) so I've bought a few just now at just over 472. I hope I'm not too early.

You know how these things go MSM, I suspect you'll get another chance and the price will fall back in the near future to around 12.2. Does seem likely that the bottom is in though around 12p.

DBoh/Sully, that might explain the SP movements from the peak and even the reason for the price never getting close to the TERP.

I don't know how to interpret that, but it seems like a lot of potential dilution. Enough (on top of the delisting and the risk of a widespread recession or worse) to push the SP down. Lot's of head winds here, and I was not aware of this one. Thanks Dboh

With the build in crude, I was surprised to see POO rise today, but that appears to be 'coming into line'!

I didn't say that Tully and I specifically didn't get too involved in LSE vs Frankfurt. It's possible that the SP will drop harder here than in FF. It's entirely possible that I'm just plain wrong. SH's have voted to delist from LSE, that will take however long that takes and it may be that the SP drops in london due to that, or maybe the delisting simply negates what's in the chart. I personally will not risk buying TUI on the LSE (assuming it's still possible; is it?).

I have to admit I had not realised that the vote was in.

Well, you're not all going to like this view, but I think that the SP here is on it's way to 468 or below and probably on it's way to 412 and below. Similarly and I've been consistent in this view, although it doesn't meet a lot of enthusiasm as the SP falls, CCL is on it's way below 700 (I can't remember the levels there as it's been a while since I've looked closely).

You'll think I'm a fool in the short to medium term, and when (if?) the SP gets where I think it's going, you'll have forgotten I posted this. Win win for me!

Is that the 0.1 for US CPI Onedb? I thought the same, estimates by their very nature can't be exact and estimates about the future are likely to be even less exact. I think it shows that the market had factored in rate cuts in the very near future. There's a risk those cuts might have been pushed back a little now, but it's a mess. We have fall demand (reducing prices), supply disruption (increasing time to market and prices themselves), then we have a potentially calamitous problem with real estate (and therefore banking) in China and the US, but also Europe (WFH is not great if you are paying debt on buildings intended for people to work in). Did you see that the Chinese sold Canary Wharf for 40% of it's face value? They need the cash, but there will likely be repercussions around the world. Who is holding the chinese property debt (300 billion dollars for Evergrande alone)? I suspect that the small knock to the US markets yesterday is a tremor that warns of a much larger event to come. Weeks? Months? Never? Soft-landing, Hard-landing?

Feb Operations update tomorrow, then Mar 28th for full year results.

ENQ SP breaking to the upside, but it's done that on the charts so b l oo dy often (with no follow through) that I'm probably not going to add at this juncture.

Indeed 'How low...', go dd amn senility and old age

Interesting JWB, reminds me of an Oxbridge question I was once set

"Is this a question?" Of course the answer to that one was "yes, if this is an answer"

You've got me stumped with yours "How long is the question"?

Come on, out with it, what's the answer?

In fact, I'm reasonably confident we'll see a pull back so I've dropped the rest around 65.7. Small profit, but from a 'portfolio management' point of view (that means dealing with observation that I'm sitting on sh i t; ENQ) I have to book profits regularly.

I dropped 40% this morning at a small profit at 66 or so. I think the price will retrace to 63.4 or lower and I'll consider buying back at that level. I've managed to bring my average entry down to 64.25