Member Info for Stupmy

I've closed out. Would re-open if it dropped back to the 300 area, but that's a big ask I guess. GLA

You're wrong, the chart describes the behaviour of the market participants.

What you seem to be saying is that understanding what has happened in the past doesn't let you see into the future? If that's what you're saying, then I'm in agreement. Just as knowing the fundamentals of a company does not let you see into the future. You know what you know from the things you study and knowing something is better than knowing nothing, so you could argue that knowing something makes you better able to make decisions than those who've done no work at all. But as I said previously. Money doesn't enter the market randomly, it looks for points that are more or less likely to represent value. That means, there are places on charts that you can speculate will be more less likely reached by the SP. It's so simple it's demonstrable. If you look at the swings up and down on a chart. Where would you go long? You'd do it at the bottom of a swing right? Well if you know that it's better to enter there than where the price is showing no evidence of a bottom, then you wait for evidence that buyers are coming in and the SP trajectory looks to be changing? I feel it's so obvious that no-one can argue with it. What it doesn't mean is that you can be certain that the SP will turn as it did the last time. It just increases the likelihood of that happening. Also, it normally means you've entered at a SP lower than that you would have done had you just entered randomly. That in itself is advantageous. I maybe have a block on this, but I simply can't see how you could argue otherwise?

Try to think of a single example where something achieved in the present is not related closely to what has happened in the past.

Also, consider that the study of a companies fundamental positioning in order to estimate what's likely to happen in the future (that's essentially fundamental investing), is also based upon what has happened in the past.

History is critical to the future. Charts, describe the behaviour of the participants in a particular market. Human behaviour changes very slowly if at all. It's logical to assume then (as long as you accept that) that what has happened in the past will influence what happens in the future. You just have to figure out a way to exploit that and that is where you get your edge over the rest of the market.

Sekforde, you're missing half of the game by taking that view. You cover the fundamentals, but don't consider the market participants and their behaviour. Money flowing in and out of this and most other markets is not randomly doing so. It's looking for logical points of value (with a background view to the fundamentals which in any sensible world must show themselves at some point). Be sure of it Sekforde, the fact that the movement of money is not random means that if you're open to studying it, you can take advantage of where the big waves and tides are going.

I can't help wondering whether the speed of the bounce this morning is already talking to short covering.

Yes, I understand. Could easily see it falling back to 295/296!

Still, good bounce to start the day off with.

That post didn't age well JBW!

I think 15 or a bit higher is very likely now. At that point the price meets the 200 sMA which co-incides with a falling tl resistance (around 15-15.5 depending how you draw it). That will be a point of interest, if we can close above that area I really think 17.25 or higher becomes likely. I'm actually secretly hoping for 21.25 or higher (that's profit not b/e for me), but don't tell anyone that. It'll probably jinx it.

Because lots can go wrong between now and the 4th qtr and because HBR production is declining now and it's reserves are not particularly long-dated. HBR needs this deal. I guess BASF/LetterOne need this deal. The official noises are optimistic, but until it's delivered shorts have lots of wiggle room.

We finished high which is often a good sign for the following days trading. On the daily chart I have the 200 sMA as at 15, but I think 15.8 is likely. If we can hold that I have 17.25 or higher. I'm getting optimistic here (not drugged up, lithium soddled ancientmarine optimistic) and think it's looking pretty good for us. I'm hoping we've turned the corner. I would add if we fell back to 12.2 or lower without concern.

13.8 or higher looks very likely, but I can't add (my own rules) unless the price drops to 12.2 or lower. In a sense it doesn't matter as I have a lot of these. Adding more, would give me a faster b/e though

In the absence of a positive catalyst 500 or lower looks very likely. There's a short term rising tl support (from Feb 2nd) that could act as support, but I suspect it won't. I'm interested to see whether the SP rejects 500.

I've started to buy back around 480.

JWB is there any delay on that info. Are you saying they're starting to short around 300p? Or was the short placed 48hrs ago (there's often a delay in reported data on short sites). There's a big difference between those two possibilities

Just bought a few more for 298 or so. As others have said, although there is risk in uncertainty, it looks likely that all or most of it is baked in on this drop from 780ish to 300ish. Well, what's done is done for now. Fingers crossed I've not been too reactive here.

I'm rushing a bit here which is rarely good, but I've bought a few shares now at around 298.

This has just come to my notice (via Citywire). I'm looking at it now (opened a small leveraged long at 292), I don't know how to make a guess at where the bottom might be on this, other than to try to watch for buyers to over come sellers (higher low, higher high etc). Anyone know how to figure out a target for the bottom? In theory, this could be it here, but I can find a very forced and therefore likely invalid reason to consider the 170's as possible). Would be very interested in views.

Dropped the rest just above 487. That'll do me for today.

Sorry 489, not sure what I was reading there!!

Well, I bought 472 and 476. I dropped half just now at just under 492.