Member Info for Stupmy

It sounds good. Out of interest, did you earn that from the markets or are you using it on the markets. I have to say, I tend to be stuck inside, in front of screens that is less relaxed than your lifestyle seems to be.

Can I assume that you don't work Modestus as you earn sufficient, suffiently often from your investing that the money side of things is unimportant? Or are you in fact working and investing?

Fog, I have to say that I don't know anything at all about that side of things. I read comments about paid to post etc, but don't even know it's true. It's clear to me that some people are more invested intellectually, others seem 100% into the bullish story and some just seem to have no interest in the market all and are just being awquard. I'm not into conspiracy theories etc. I just try to sort the wheat from the chaff, what I can use and what I can't and mix it with my own way of working to come to decisions.

A lot of comments on the board that are bullish are from people hoping for a rise in prices so they can leave difficult positions, that's completely understandable, but largely not useful to me as it's most uninformed posters selling hopium. I don't think it got malicious intent though.

Until this point I've always viewed you with respect Modestus. Your aggression for no reason at all makes me disbelieve you completely on your 300-400% comment. If that ever happened it was once and it was nickels. I think, that if you were actually making money, you would not need to be having a pop at me for no reason. I think my views confuse you and leave you worried about your positions.

I noticed that with the ancient marine, nothing is ever measured. I haven't filtered him though. I've filtered many. But I am genuinely interested in human nature.

When I see 'traders' selling 'methods' I assume the methods either don't work the info is freely available and I can research it myself. I could never try to sell what I've learned, and if I did try, many people would think there would be no need to sell it if it worked as you'd earn as much as you need by using it. But I happily share my views and the really interesting thing is that if you give it away free, no-one wants it as it 'has no value'. All you'd have to do is research the % of good to bad decisions I make to know whether there's any value in what I'm saying. But, I suspect those who criticise, just don't think. They run with the accepted story and shout 'foul' when they lose money.

I'm also long fog, I stated that I closed my levaraged positions at a loss but bought shares. That position from memory is around 250. I'm long due to FOMO. I'm struggling with 'method' vs 'story', just like many do. I like the story and believe that over time 250 will be a fine price to buy at. But I don't get comments like those of Modestus about 'don't worry about nickels' ie. just buy anytime and believe the hype. If I worked that way, I'd have held from 220 odd to 300 odd and back to now 247. I didn't do that, I sold at around 300 and have bought back a small fraction of what I'd like to own. If I can get 235 or lower, I'd prefer it to 250 and to my mind that is not nickels. That 15 p would be enough in itself (although I try to get as much as possible from the swings I catch).

Something that really surprises me is that, you can get things mostly right and yet be criticised for what you're doing and sharing. I'm very clearly going against the common view by calling the down side on this. I sold my nickels at around 300, did my best to rationalise what was the most likely next move using common sense including TA related methods and I'm looking to re-enter. The size of my re-entry will depend on my perception of the risk and that will depend on how low the SP goes. I've been honest, I've called these moves in advance and all I draw is criticism. Why? That's a genuine question. If I was guessing and was wrong more often than right I'd get it, it would be nonsense hot air. Many on the bb's just regurgitate the common view and that fits the wishes of those who want their nerves soothed. I'd rather understand what's happening, get it right and take a profit. The main reason we are here is that. Make a profit. I feel that a lot on the boards lose track of that, get caught up in 'the story' then cry conspiracy when it doesn't go their way and all the time criticise those that go against the flow. I'm not even a contrarian investor/trader. I just try to understand and back my understanding with my money.

I find human nature fascinating.

Not whinging, it's unimportant, but it's true that I got it very wrong on that. I believe I'll see a very good profit there and the amount trapped is now of little importance to me. I can be patient with it. I prefer shorter exposures to risk though.

Modestus, you'd blush if you saw my nickels believe me on that.

I don't disagree Alex, it's just that when I can see the logic behind things, it very often goes somewhere else that I was hoping it would go. 250 looked like great value on HBR before the WD announcement, but the SP was bumping along in the 220s'often. I don't want to miss what looks like a good opportunity, but I know from experience that buying logic often leads to sitting on losses. I'm already 'trapped' in ENQ (I think there might be accumulation there currently) and don't want to get trapped here as well.

It's starting to look as it if it's another bull-trap. I'm still hoping for 63.4 or so (which hasn't yet been achieved). The SP rose on the Italy hopes and now news and hopes, but is giving that up quite easily as if someone is selling into it. Could the idea that a cut to the divi would impact the SP negatively, be driving someome to sell out the rises? A divi cut does seem likely to me as 11% or so seems very high.

I can see all that, but I view 'accumulation' as a TA term and was wondering whether there was something specific that I'm not picking up on. I agree it makes sense there would be accumulation, but what I can't do is actually convince myself that I can see it. There's even an 'Accumulation/Distribution' indicator which I've not previously used but have been looking into since you posted and so far I can't easily see that it's showing anything significant on HBR. As I said before, I'm not saying it's not happening, just that I can't see anything obvious.

Sorry 'distribution should have read 'accumulation' in my last post.

Alex, you previously posted this: "Looks like someone(s) loading up extremely carefully/slowly here on the very cheap at the moment, possibly CONTROL EMPRESARIAL DE CAPITALES, S.A. DE C.V. ( Carlos Slim & Team/Family) who likely plan to go to 10%+ holding before the deal is closed and the SP rockets along with also the PoO."

I asked you how were identifying the distribution (see below). As I said previously, genuine question because it's less obvious from the TA that there is accumulation (that doesn't mean I'm suggesting you are wrong, just that I can't see it; I'm aware Carlos Slim has been accumulating). I'm genuinely interested in how you are identifying the accumulation?

Here was my question to you "Alex how are you seeing it as accumultion here. Genuine question as logically the SP looks like value, we know Carlos Slim has been accumulating, but what about the chart is suggesting to you that at the moment we're in an accumulation phase. The price seems to be still moving down to me rather than across and the volume isn't very hight. Normally you'd expect lateral movement with quite low volatility on higher than normal volume. I'm struggling to convince myself we're seeing that. It bothers me as I think the overall view that the SP will move a lot higher than it's current 250-253 is very likely right. But I'm sat out (mostly, although I did buy a few shares around 250 when I dropped my leveraged positions) for the moment because I still view the risk of 235 or lower as being present."

At around 458. I guess it gives me an average entry around 470 (from memory)

That would bring the price up as it involves buying to cover the shorts.

In my view it's driven by MM's looking for volume and it's TA driven. I've been waiting for 475 or lower. Results tomorrow I think. Should there be anything bad in the results the risk might have us down to 435 or lower or even 385 or lower (I guess that would need time and some big negatives). I'm waiting. The SP moves very well so if you can catch those movements you can make good money, but if you're on the wrong side of it it hurts. What I'm seeing suggest that a good number of shares are being affected similarly. So although I'm not convinced that this slip is particularly OCDO specific, the fact that the results are close makes buyers a bit nervous which gives sellers the edge.

Alex how are you seeing it as accumultion here. Genuine question as logically the SP looks like value, we know Carlos Slim has been accumulating, but what about the chart is suggesting to you that at the moment we're in an accumulation phase. The price seems to be still moving down to me rather than across and the volume isn't very hight. Normally you'd expect lateral movement with quite low volatility on higher than normal volume. I'm struggling to convince myself we're seeing that. It bothers me as I think the overall view that the SP will move a lot higher than it's current 250-253 is very likely right. But I'm sat out (mostly, although I did buy a few shares around 250 when I dropped my leveraged positions) for the moment because I still view the risk of 235 or lower as being present.

Staring into your navals you will solve so many difficulties on an aacadmic level. There will be so many more problems to follow to keep you occupied. And in the meantime, reality is going to pass you by!!!

Wake up!!!

I'll wait, happy to miss it if it happens. It is just so important to buy low and sell high. Such a simplism, but no-one seems to get it.

If I miss voda (entirely possible), I'll catch another ride.

SP is showing some 'excitement'.. I can't see any news.