Member Info for Stupmy

I can't help thinking that the lack of volume relates to so much money going to tech. Might explain the general lack of volume on LSE. Most of the rest of your post Onedb is related to the time between announcement and deal closing allowing the media (including bb's) to scrutinise the deal and spin it this way and that. Afterwards human nature takes over, as the price drops more and more punters close out to lock in profit or minimise loss. When it stops, the media message will change and human nature will take it up again. The back ground problem facilitating the price drop (in my view) is the question "if the WD deal fails, what happens to HBR SP?" The reason I say that is that they are predicting a 20% drop in production and the current producing assets we have are not long dated. In the absence of other factors, that implies erosion of value to me and I guess to many others.

If the price was to get to 235 or better still the low 220's I'd load up. I'm bullish and think the deal will go through. Stevo's arguments favour that (even if they've added an unwelcome to many splash or reality to the cake).

From memory, the bb's suggested that it was a bad move for Chrysaor to merge with PMO to form HBR based on PMO's precarious debt position. Management effectively turned that on it's head (although not reflected by the SP for the moment) and my guess is that they'll do that again if this WD deal completes.

I'm taking a guess that we're headed towards a rare window of opportunity here. You could argue that we're already in that window, although I'll wait for now.

Funny fog, I have no view on HBR IR, but not heard the 'miss the floor' line before.

Jeffrey/anyone, is Carlos interested in ZAMA/Mexico or HBR in general. If it's really just Mexcian assets, what does the DEA/W deal bring him? If it's nothing, then it's in his interests that the SP falls back into the range that was previously occupied by HBR alone. It would be in his interests in fact that it falls to the bottom of that range or below. What is his interest other than ZAMA and how does it translate to the DEA/W deal?

Go toss a coin robleo, I'll stick with rational.

I don't think it's stupid Steve, at one point it looked as if the lower call would be invalidated. Patience is often rewarded though (either by profit or smaller losses).

I can see 249 looks like a potential support and we'll have to wait to see if it is respected, but I do suspect we'll see prices below that. We're so far into the normal trading range of HBR now that you'd have to imagine that short to medium term the price currently represents value, particularly if the Wintershall deal adds value. Trading is very interesting for sure.

I posted this on Feb 14th under the heading 'RE: I feals like this is abowt to go downe'

Since it was essentially a TA related comment I've used a new heading here. Price is now 64.6 and it looks very likey to achieve the 63.4 level I previously spoke about, or below. I'll consider re-entering if it does.

"I dropped 40% this morning at a small profit at 66 or so. I think the price will retrace to 63.4 or lower and I'll consider buying back at that level. I've managed to bring my average entry down to 64.25"

I closed out my FOMO leveraged positions at a good loss, as I think it'll fall further.

I've been suggesting the possibility of 235 or even low 220's for quite a while now and below is a recent quote on that from Feb 21st. Stevo is inject a lot of realism into the discussions and we should all be very grateful for that input. I am. From a TA perspective, which describes the behaviours of buyers and sellers and is therefore often more to do with perception and human nature than hard information, we look to be breaking down in the price now and I personally believe 235 is very likely now. If that doesn't hold then the low 220's would not come as a surprise at all to me. That does not mean that over time the SP won't recover and I'm hoping to buy quite large amounts at some point.

"From a TA perspective the SP is sat right on a short term (trivial?) rising tl support; 9th Feb/15th Feb/today. If the SP were to close below it (lets say 258), then that becomes invalidated as a support and we have to hope that 255 (previous low from Feb 9th) acts as support. If it doesn't, then the liklihood of us seeing 235 or lower (possibly low 220's) increases significantly. Not the sort of thing that long positions want to hear, but worth considering in my opinion. I still have my long positions (FOMO) from around 262 (memory) but have not added."

Robleo, I suspect that part of the SP performance issue is that most money is moving to the big 7 in the US. Just look at how NVDIA impacted the US500 yesterday. I suspect that we'll have to wait until that 'bubble' (not sure if it's appropriate to call it that, but you get my drift) starts to deflate/burst. After that point I guess some money might return to traditional stocks. It is frightening that over 33% of the US500 is 7 companies?

I found the NVIDIA impact on the US500 absolutely terrifying 33% of the US500 (that's 500 companies) is now 7 companies, I guess that 33% is even more now. The US500 is effectively 2 indices as you allude to Scotpack. I'm personally hoping that we see a rationalisation although I'm sure it'll bite me on the backside when it happens

It's worth 478 already!

What happened for everything to suddenly perk up? HSBC reported an 80% drop in profits due to exposure to a chinese bank. That has to be a sign of what's to come. China is very likely going to export it's commercial real-estate problems (as well as Plastic tat) and therefore banking crisis to the rest of the world and yet here we are on another run up in the US500 futures to a new record high?? What??

Just bought a few shares around 474

It looks to be holding/reject 255 to me for the moment. Nothing solid, but I added a little to my 262 positions (FOMO again).

I think it has, just about. 14.9-15.5 now looks likely. If we get there it would be the 4th challenge of that region (Aug 10th/Oct 20th/Dec 22nd so far). A close above it would have 17.25 area as likely. Each challenge of that area has however started from a lower base (lower low) in a down-trend).

Oh and fre1, thanks for the considered response.

Kind of my point. I don't know what's justified and I don't know how hard the FCA investigation will hit CB. I approach it differently. I think (from experience and history) that there will be some good 'beta' on the SP that you can profit from if you can nail the ups and downs. So, when I say I think there's a good chance of us seeing 295-300, I'm not making a comment on the value of the business (but I am looking at the size of the price drop from 800), I'm just considering the confusion now in the market about what the business is worth, how hard the investigation will hit that value and the fact that most of us have no idea where the price will settle. History suggests and I believe the price will settle above it's current value so I'm bullish. But even though I'm bullish, 349 where I dropped out did not look like value any longer (in the short term). The lower I can enter, then the less I can lose. I hate being on the wrong side of price movement and having that 'trapped in' feeling when the tide backs off and I'm left sitting on a loss wondering what to do. So I try to be disciplined and patient and move with the tides.

The time factor is also very significant. I agree with you that it will take time to resolve and during that time period the media is likely, one way or another, to have the SP on the front and back foot at different times.

Also the rreduction in the millenium short position may very well explain yesterdays rise. If there is no continued short covering (marshal wace?) then confusion in the PI's cohort will likely allow this to drift back down.

I have 14, but agreed that it's looking strong even against a back drop of POO showing some weakness (just chop I guess on that).

What do you mean by 'oversold' fre?

From a charting perspective it could be related to the postition of certain indicators (largely lagging) and doesn't always provide information relevant to the next SP move although it might act as a guide to start watching more closely.

I'm completely guessing here, but I don't think you're talking about indicators. Are you just saying that from a notional point of view the SP has dropped a lot and without any particular knowledge, you've taken the view that the SP has now fallen below what is justified by the 'misselling of motor insurance' policies?

Firstly Stevo, thanks for your input, really interested in your views. Filtered Jakbe. Very strange person.

From a TA perspective the SP is sat right on a short term (trivial?) rising tl support; 9th Feb/15th Feb/today. If the SP were to close below it (lets say 258), then that becomes invalidated as a support and we have to hope that 255 (previous low from Feb 9th) acts as support. If it doesn't, then the liklihood of us seeing 235 or lower (possibly low 220's) increases significantly. Not the sort of thing that long positions want to hear, but worth considering in my opinion. I still have my long positions (FOMO) from around 262 (memory) but have not added.