Member Info for stt1

Radium,
" Premier Miton Group Plc, David & Monique Newlands and Oryx International Growth Fund, have all been off-loading their holdings in Totally Plc of late, have they not?"

You need to do some research into those and you'll see how far off the mark you really are.
Where's the evidence of wide spread selling on the back of the NHS proposals, which were expected????

They bought in the placing at 10p, 18months ago.

https://www.totallyplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Totally-plc-Admission-Document-31-May-2019.pdf

Miton:
*******
Miton bought in the placing at 10p 18months ago.
Miton were forced sellers and not because of any concerns over TLY's business or prospects..

Their reasons.
"To fund withdrawals, Williams has trimmed some of his holdings while selling out of others completely. The number of stocks in the portfolio has fallen from 89 at the end of May to 56 at the end of last year."
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/gervais-williams-insists-he-can-bounce-back-as-fund-shrinks-75/a1317959"

As at 31st Jan 2021, Totally is their FIFTH largest holding.
https://www.mitongroup.com/private/fund/miton-uk-microcap-trust-plc/

Newlands:
**********
Also bought in the 10p placing 18 months ago. They held 5.3% 18months ago.
They recently sold some at around 27p-30p, so nearly TREBLED their money.
They still hold 3.9%
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/rnppgkx

Harwood:
**********
In July 2020, 7 months ago, they increased their holding from 3.37% to 5.49% when the sp was around 16p.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xq12plw

They recently being trimming their holding and now hold 2.74%, which is about 0.5% below their holding from last July. The sp was around 32p-33p, so from last July, they have DOUBLED their money in about 7 months.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/w985ygr

Last week the Magnite CEO sold $1.7m worth of shares.

The shares ended the week down 20%

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni

Tricky
"Plus, I can't agree with your figures, the link you posted as a pdf shows Adjusted EBITDA* increased 37% to $60.4 million in 2019.
(2018:$44.1 million)."

My figures are perfectly clear. The figures are for fy2020 and clearly show that adj ebitda is lower than last year, fy2019, despite the fact they now have a full year contribution from Unruly and Rthm.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m) ** up $75m (inc full yr cont from Unruly/Rthm)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** LOWER than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m): Up $20m(includes Unruly/rthm)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Help to buy in Scotland has already ended. Therefore, I don't think Scottish buyers of TW homes have the extension until May.

"The scheme is available across Scotland to first time buyers and existing homeowners until Friday 5 February 2021 at 6pm when the scheme will close for all new applications."

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/ways-to-buy/help-to-buy/help-to-buy-scotland

Scottish Budget. Published yesterday.
ËœKatie Cautious missed a trick on LBTT threshold

"The Scottish Governments ËœHelp to Buy scheme, which has supported buyers by providing interest-free equity loans worth up to 15 per cent of the purchase price of a newly-built home up to a maximum price of £200,000, will end tomorrow."

https://www.scotsman.com/business/scottish-budget-katie-cautious-missed-trick-lbtt-threshold-david-alexander-3121009

The figures speak for themselves. Trmr has risen on the back of the interest in tech in USA, hence why I think there's the ad tech bubble. The same happened during the .com bubble, the

Why should they do any better for fy2021?

fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals:

Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower.
2020 includes full year contribution from Unruly(nil in 2019) and Rthm(8mnths in 2019):

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m) ** up $75m (inc full yr cont from Unruly/Rthm)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** LOWER than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m): Up $20m(includes Unruly/rthm)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Finncap expectations - compared to broker expectations set in March 2020:

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

previous year's results:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

In Long
"definitely NOT imminent policy change"

Given the changes were expected and are great for TLY, I, for one, hope the changes are made fairly soon. The sooner they are, the sooner TLY will see the benefits.

I likehouse,
"as far as the new mortgage guarantee scheme is concerned its a replacement of the H2B"

It's not a replacement of H2B scheme. The current H2B scheme ends 31st March(the extension for current buyers already in the process) and is being replaced by a new H2B scheme form 1st April, which is for 1st time buyers only and includes price caps.
The H2B scheme you is shared ownership, so you buy an EQUITY in the home.
The 95% mortgage you're buying 100% of the home.

The problem with all govn schemes is that they don't actually help the housing market, they simply push house prices higher. The avg house price is simply too high compared to the avg wage.

SP180,

See link to your posts.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sp180/

1) CTV has been around for years. As can be seen in your previous posts you were bullish about blnx(rthm) cross devices, inc CTV (see your post of Feb 2016). CTV is another device, it doesn't change the opaque nature of ad tech eco system nor the challenges the ecosystem faces.

2) In your previous posts from 2016 (see link to your posts), you repeatedly refer to Dan to backup your and blnx(now rtmn, merged with trmr) bullish stance on their prospects. Several times you mention you had spoken to him to back up that stance. Obviously Dan, having worked as Chief Operating Officer of rthm, has many years experience of working within ad tech ecosystem.
Since that bullish stance Dan has commented on ad tech fraud. Given you had previously used his comments to backup your bullish stance, do you agree with his comments from 2018 that fraud follows ad tech money??

This was soon after rthm/yume takeover (and you say you stopped posting).
4 months later rthm merged with tap to form trmr.

Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...

"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.

Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. While advertisers continue to demand transparency of their partners downstream, even going so far as to hold budgets hostage, consumers who have enjoyed positive, emotional connections with their brands online‚¬are at risk of turning off due to privacy concerns. Stakeholders will expect even greater clarity and accountability in the quality of the online platforms and content that they invest behind"

Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters‚ in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."

http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/

and more recently:

CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m

"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme named ParrotTerra is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."

The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."

https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-frau

Sp180,
I noticed from your posting history that prior to your post today, your previous post was in 2016, 5 yrs ago, which was the year of the previous US Election. You joined here in May 2014, just after the 2014 sp crash when the blnx(rthm) eq sp was around £28.

Your previous post was also when the previous US Election took place, in 2016.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sp180/

Looking at your bullish posts from 2014 to 2016, you mention CTV, multiple devices and blnx(now rthm, merged with trmr) are well placed to benefit from the cross device solution.
What happened? They failed to backup the bullish comments when it came to results. AS Expected.

Given rthm previously failed to backup their/your previous bullish comments why should it be different this time?

You'll remember that:
In 2013-14 blnx(now rthm, merged with trmr) surged from eq sp 1170p to 2800p (100p to 240p, old money) before crashing back down on events/results.

In 2016/17 they tripled from eq sp 200p to 580p (16p old money to 50p,) on the back of bullish comments and crashed back down on events/results.
Then crashed back down because of facts - industry challenges.

In 2017, the eq sp was 589p (old 50p). Rthm/takeover of Yume at $185m and then subsequent merging rthm/Yume with trmr at a valuation $175m, which was lower than rthm paid for Yume alone!!

Looking at rthm results from 2015 to 2018, they never backed up their bullish comments when it came to results.

rthm had $78m for fy2016 but virtually all disappeared by the time they merged with trmr in 2019.

(They need huge cash pile to pay for inventory, with the long payment timescales.)

Period, revenue, cash
fy2015 $214.9m $95.7m ($20.8m)
fy2016 $166.7m $78.4m ($92.3m)
fy2017 $175m $75m ($18.7m) *(inc Perk acquisition q3 2017)
fy2018 $255m $27m ($13.8m) (inc Rad1 & Yume acquisitions)

Trmr:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

The results and facts over the past year FROM the company speaks for itself.

Bear points.
Facts over the past year - despite a bullish TU a year ago:

1) In March 2020, they published a huge 11fold increase in debt provision.

Then 6 months later
2) In Sept 2020, they published a $30m loss

Then 3 months later
3) The CEO sells 700k shares, 1/3 of his holding.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy 2020 fy2020 Adj EBITDA LOWER than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.

previous year's results:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

Tricky,
"We are too busy looking and planning ahead to dwell on mistakes in the distant past."

Do some research into ad tech ecosystem, the way payments, the regulations.
Whereas it used to be a free for all, ad tech ecosystem is now becoming more and more regulated(industry challenge investigations/changes to privacy/RTB), more transparent with fewer DSPs/SSPs (hence the industry challenge with large advertisers using fewer DSP/SSP)

Unlike the free for all which used to exist, you'll see that the ad tech ecosystem is controlled by tougher regulation and the FAANG companies with the ad tech ecosystem.

It used to be Video within web was all the rage, then mobile video was all the rage. CTV has been around for years, it's nothing new.

Both rthm & Unruly were merged/sold for less than 1x revenues. Not just with trmr but also Rocket Fuel/Sizmek, Rthm/Yume etc etc...

Rthm(now trmr) earned $255m for fy2018 alone, just a year before they merged in Apr 2019. They were valued at $175m when they merged.
Unruly(now trmr) earned $43m revenues, earned 6 months before being acquired by trmr. They were valued at $19m.

Last 3 yrs trmr results, speaks for itself.
period, revenue,adj ebitda, cash (all $)
2018 276.9m 44.1m 54.4m *** without any contribution from rthm.
2019 325.8m 60.4m 76.9m *** with 8 month contribution from rthm, nil from Unruly.
2020e 404-408m, 58-60m, 96m *** with FULL YEAR contribution from rthm & Unruly

Bru
"Your words below underline message implies a doomed industry for sure.

There's a big difference between ad tech MODEL and ad tech INDUSTRY. Look it up in the dictionary.

When there's questions around the MODEL, it creates industry challenges.
Where do I say the INDUSTRY IS DOOMED?

Trmr also suffered from those industry challenges, as they stated in the H1 2019 report.
The MODEL was impacted but the INDUSTRY still exists, doesn't it?

The profit warning from the company themselves, is there in black and white - AS EXPECTED.

" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "

The closing of rthm's operations - rthm operations not so good then? - AS EXPECTED

"Several of RhythmOne's products have been discontinued alongside its demand-side platform ("DSP"). The development of RhythmOne's data management platform ("DMP) has also been taken in-house. This initiative created an operational challenge for management, however they believe the decision will markedly benefit the company in the medium-term. The reduced development, maintenance and data centre costs form part of the wider initiative to streamline the Company's operations."

Industry Challenges continues to affect trmr - AS EXPECTED

"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability. "

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/interim-results/201909240700083776N/

With huge ad spend during the US Election and huge increase in CTV, why isn't there a huge increase in adj Ebitda. It's lower than fy2019!!!
There is no US Election for another 4 yrs.

Read the company accounts/newsflow.

fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals
Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower. I was expecting adj Ebitda to be significantly higher than fy2019, especially given the surge in ads due to US Elections and supposedly the huge increase in CTV.

Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.

Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf

Finncap expectations
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

There is no US Election for another 4 yrs and covid lockdowns will be eased as we go through the year.
They bought Unruly at the beginning of 2020, so there was no revenue contribution from them in fy2019 but will be virtually a full year's contribution in fy2020. Unruly revenue was $43m 6 months before being acquired by Trmr.

The TU figures in the TU are still below Finncap's expectations from 10 months ago.

Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.

Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:

revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $20m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a

Everyone should read the company/sector news and form their OWN opinion.

Trmr peer Magnite released better than expected results.

Sp currently down 16%

Further backing my opinion of ad tech bubble.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/magnite-mgni-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-revenues-up-y-y-2021-02-25

Now sp isn't rising so fast, some are NOW coming around to thinking the growth can't continue.

Hindsight... ;-)

Osteo,

Read the bull and bear points and form your own opinion. It's your money!!

Rthm had a history of bullish TUs but failed to back them up when it came to results.
Rthm operated a full stack and now trmr operate the full stack ad tech model.

We've been here before:

In 2016-17, previous US Election, the rthm eq sp tripled and was around 580p 4 yrs ago based on bullish comments. The broker targets were similar to now, the bullish comments etc.

Rthm sp often rose on bullish TU and fell when it came to events (results).

Trmr's last 3 yrs - their revenue increase is mainly due to buying Unruly where there is the first full year of contribution, rthm(was only 8mnths of contribution for fy2019) and hotly contested US Election (no US Election for 4 yrs) and covid.

period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

Read the bull/bear points and form your own opinion.

Further to my opinion of an Ad tech bubble...

Magnite currently down 8% even though they beat earning.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/magnite-mgni-q4-earnings-beat-estimates-revenues-up-y-y-2021-02-25

Bear points.
Facts over the past year - despite a bullish TU a year ago:
I fully expect when the sp is falling the same bullish posters will turn bearish with the usual 'the bear points were obvious', 'wait for this year's results (AGAIN!)!!!', 'I've always said'... all in hindsight!!! ;-)


Bear Points:
1) In March 2020, they published a huge 11fold increase in debt provision.

Then 6 months later
2) In Sept 2020, they published a $30m loss

Then 3 months later
3) The CEO sells 700k shares, 1/3 of his holding.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy 2020 fy2020 Adj EBITDA LOWER than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.

previous year's results:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly

fy dividend due tomorrow.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xpppm3x

wouterius
"we are now just turning the corner to profitability"

They announced a LOSS of $30m for H1, where's the evidence they are turning the corner? They missed the expectations announced in the bullish TU, March 2020, for fy2020.

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

Last year they reported a huge 11fold increase in debt provision

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

Ad Tech bubble.

Article on ad tech. The same industry challenges as did pre-covid and even more so now that investigations into ad tech business model are resuming.

"It’s as if investors forgot that ad tech is steeped in a lot of uncertainty right now.

Take Criteo. It’s valued now at $1.9 billion. A year ago Criteo’s stock crashed to a 52-week low after Google said it would block the cookies the ad tech vendor uses to retarget people in the Chrome browser. Google still intends to make its move sometime next year. And as it stands, no one has a viable alternative. Yet, Criteo is worth more today than it was a year ago."

https://digiday.com/marketing/ad-techs-latest-consolidation-wave/