Member Info for stt1

The 10m predicted on waiting list is for NHS England only.

Last Oct the number on the waiting list for NHS England was 4.4m.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55260338

TLY insourcing division operate in all 4 UK nations and Ireland.

Help to Buy extension to May 31st to help buyers, who have already committed to the current H2B scheme, to complete. No more extension after this.

"The updated guidance says that while Help to Buy will still officially end on 31 March 2021, homebuyers using the current scheme will be given more time to complete their purchase.

It says: “We are extending legal completion to 31 May 2021 due to delays caused by coronavirus. This allows an extra 2 months for homebuilders to complete the build and for homebuyers to legally complete and get the keys to their home.”"

"It also warns buyers and builders not to expect any further leeway. “There will be no more extensions, so we are asking homebuilders to continue to build at pace. Please check with your homebuilder and conveyancer that you’re able to meet these dates”, it says."
https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/housebuilders-hail-help-to-buy-extension/5110428.article

In Scotland, it has already ended.

Scottish Budget. Published yesterday.
˜Katie Cautious missed a trick on LBTT threshold

"The Scottish Governments ˜Help to Buy scheme, which has supported buyers by providing interest-free equity loans worth up to 15 per cent of the purchase price of a newly-built home up to a maximum price of £200,000, will end tomorrow."

https://www.scotsman.com/business/scottish-budget-katie-cautious-missed-trick-lbtt-threshold-david-alexander-3121009

In-Long,

Good post.
Plus, only 2 weeks ago, TLY's Planned Care division were awarded a NEW 3+2(yrs) contract to start next month for Non-NHS organisation - 4 police forces in SW England.

"Totally's Planned Care division, which continues to provide a comprehensive range of treatments including Out-Patient Services, Referral Management Services, Physiotherapy and Podiatry Services, has been awarded a new contract to provide occupational physiotherapy services to four police forces in the South West of England. "

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xzm94pw

Vinniw
"Are you saying that every company involved in AD Tech is fraudulent?"

No, I never said that. When major fraud is detected within any sector, all companies within the sector are impacted, as was the case after Methbot fraud was exposed in 2016. P&G then demanded major changes to transparency, loss of trust, using fewer DSPs/SSPs, hence the M&A activity over the past 3 yrs.

This was an article which the ex-Chief Operating Officer of rthm(now merged with trmr) wrote. He has many years experience of ad tech model.

Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...

"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.
Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. "

Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."

http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/

and more recently:
And as I said can lead to major changes within ad tech ecosystems

Doubleverify have discovered more CTV fraud. This is likely to call for another round of calls for transparency and possible pulling back of CTV spending by advertisers, as it did in 2017.

CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m

"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme named ParrotTerra is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."

The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."

https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-fraud-scheme-costs-up-to-50m/

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/02/16/nhso-j01.html

In-Long,

I post company/sector newsflow. Not long ago, I didn't post on lse for a while. Yet when I returned it was stt1 this, stt1 that, goading personal insults.

If I see company/sector newsflow then I will post it. That's what BBs are for, sharing information for all readers.
Why would company/sector information annoy people, unless they are insecure about their holding?

I review my investments whenever there is company/sector newsflow.

If I can counter any bear points then it makes the bull case stronger.
Likewise, if I can counter any bull points then it makes the bear case stronger.

I've countered the bear points so I'm happy, so for me, the bull case is even stronger.
The news was expected and so is good news for TLY.

There are some posters who are insecure about their own investments. I post company/sector newsflow and often provide links to back up my opinions.

BBs are better if people stick to the company/sector news and let others form their own opinions rather than personal insults.

The sp is trading within a range.
Brexit agreement, Covid vaccination rollout, HBs announcing dividends haven't made any difference.

The results are largely known as there was a TU other HBs have announced dividends etc.
The ord dividend resumption is expected and factored into the price. However, if they announce that they are cancelling it then the sp will drop. Likewise if they announce a special then the sp will jump.

The key will be events in the future, especially next few weeks:.

Budget - any tax rises(CGT), help for HBs
Stamp Duty hol ends 31st March, unless govn does a U turn.
Help to Buy for 2nd homes ends 31st March, the extension is to allow anyone already in the system to complete.
New Help to Buy scheme is less favourable for HBs as it's only for 1st time buyers and includes price caps.
Ongoing investigation into leasehold scandal by CMA.
Current Furlough scheme ends 30th April.

The events over the next few weeks/months will determine the future direction of HBs.
Because of govn support, the true impact of covid hasn't been felt yet.

Another investigation into lack of transparency with ad tech ecosystem.

The ACCC’s Ad Tech Inquiry explained

"There are also problems with opacity and pricing in the display ad supply chain. With all these extra suppliers taking their piece of the pie, it's difficult for advertisers to get a true sense of where their money is going. That makes it difficult to compare services and change supplier if they're not happy. And that's tied directly to the reduction of choice that we mentioned at the outset.

There's also opacity in the performance of the various suppliers, which has the same effect. Related to that is the (claimed) tension between data and privacy. Advertisers want more access to data to measure the performance of their suppliers and ads. Suppliers (mostly Google) say that they can't share more data out of concern for privacy."

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=a92e8cdd-480f-44c0-b5ba-968f40c839de

I think US is in an ad tech bubble and will burst. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:

1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.

2) investigations into Ad tech fraud

3) court cases affecting ad tech companies

Any major negative newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.

There was a huge trade of 652,247 shares, approx £4.2 million.
Might get a holding rns soon.

The CEO sold 700k shares or 1/3 of his holding in December.

Bear points.
Facts over the past year.
1) In March 2020, they published a huge 11fold increase in debt provision.

Then 6 months later
2) In Sept 2020, they published a $30m loss

Then 3 months later
3) The CEO sells 700k shares, 1/3 of his holding.

From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy2020 Adj EBITDA lower than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44523916&from=4143&to=4143

Help to buy was extended until May.
However, Help to Buy in Scotland has already ended. I don't know what % of each HB's sales are in Scotland, so don't know the impact it will have on Scottish HBs.

The budget is in couple of weeks, so will have to see if SD Hol is extended.

Help to buy in Scotland ended early.

"The scheme is available across Scotland to first time buyers and existing homeowners until Friday 5 February 2021 at 6pm when the scheme will close for all new applications."

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/ways-to-buy/help-to-buy/help-to-buy-scotland

Scottish Budget. Published yesterday.
˜Katie Cautious missed a trick on LBTT threshold

"The Scottish Governments ˜Help to Buy scheme, which has supported buyers by providing interest-free equity loans worth up to 15 per cent of the purchase price of a newly-built home up to a maximum price of £200,000, will end tomorrow."

https://www.scotsman.com/business/scottish-budget-katie-cautious-missed-trick-lbtt-threshold-david-alexander-3121009

Bumblebee,
"Most of this white paper is to do with the councils and admin, it will not change what TLY does. in fact it coulld enhance it"

The changes were expected and so, it doesn't change TLY business model. Why would it?
It changes the way contracts are awarded via CCGs and includes more out of hospital care, inc social care, which were already expected.

djframboise,
"There was mention of a dividend in the December update."

Yume(now part of trmr) operated CTV, which is what trmr is based on. They also paid dividends, special dividend, had cash, Nasdaq listed etc...

Despite all that, Rthm paid only $185m for Yume in 2017. Then 18months later rthm(inc Yume) merged with trmr, with a lower value than was paid for Yume alone. The merger was valued at $175m.
Have a look at Yume's results just before they were taken over. It goes to show that listed on Nasdaq doesn't mean holders always get what they hope for!!

2nd QUARTER results to June 2017, published Aug 2017:

Yume were dividend paying.
Operating in CTV
Gross margins over 50%!!
revenue $42.8m
Adj Ebitda $7.6m
Was cash generating with cash of $73m as of 30th June 2017.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170808006339/en/YuMe-Reports-Second-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results

One month after the 2nd qtr results were published, in Sept 2017, Rthm took over Yume for $185m

https://www.rhythmone.com/news/rhythmone-plc-to-acquire-yume-inc-creating-one-of-the-largest-independent-digital-video-advertising-marketplaces/

In Apr 2019, rthm (inc Yume) merged with trmr, which valued rthm(inc Yume) at $175m, $10m lower than Yume value alone, just 18months earlier!

Ultra bullish comments were they (rthm+Tap) would generate $700m revenues. Yet nearly 2 yrs on and including Unruly, they still only generated around $400m for fy2020.

"One said the combination would create a business with roughly $700m in revenue, just under half of which would be generated from video advertising activities."

"At Tuesday's market close, Taptica had a valuation of £115m, while RhythmOne was valued at £147m."

https://news.sky.com/story/video-ad-firms-forge-bigger-google-rival-with-260m-merger-11621590

Dynaheir
"Reservations for potential legal costs for malpractice actions. "

Yes I remember Wendy did talk about Insurance protection against claims, especially with the Insourcing Division. However, that is normal for all companies involved with healthcare and will be always be there, "just in case"
VAT deferral is short term.

Re Bolt ons, they were looking for an tech company, particulary with the increased use of tech video etc, during covid..

Their "Add and Build" strategy which they have been using for a number of years now is to buy acquisitions by paying a small cash amount up front and the remaining as 'deferred performance related payments'.
I think that is a good strategy to use.

dynaheir,
I have a note that VAT deferral was one of the liabilities, hence why I said 'Amongst other payments" in my earlier post.
I remember other liabilities include "property leases" but that is quite usual..

What do you think the liabilities are?

Bear points.
Sizmek, who also offered CTV, filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in 2019. They owed $millions to various companies, including rthm(now merged with trmr).

Trmr's debt provision increased 11fold in 2019 from $2m to $22m. I think this is as a result of Sizmek filing for Chapter 11. Because of the way ad tech model works, DSPs/SSPs partner with each other, so if 1 folds, others are left without money they were expecting. There is a domino effect.

https://digiday.com/media/tip-ice-berg-sizmek-saga-spells-trouble-ad-tech/

Facts over the past year.
From fy2020 results, published March 2020:

Note 16B (2)
"(2) At 31 December 2019, the Group included provision to doubtful debts in the amount of USD 22,376 thousand (31 December 2018: USD 2,822 thousand) in respect of collective impairment provision and specific debtors that their collectability is in doubt."

https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TRMR-Final-results-310320.pdf

H1-2020 Interims, published Sept 2020, 4 months ago

$30m loss
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TRMR-Interim-results-Q3-2020-Trading-Update-220920.pdf

The CEO then sold 1/3 of his holding last month.
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/TRMR-Director-Dealing-16.12.20.pdf

fy2020 Adj EBITDA lower than 2019 and missed Finncap's expectations set in March 2020.
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=44523916&from=4143&to=4143

Tricky,
"Is VAT deferral like mortgage deferral, you still have to pay it in the end?"

Obviously it still needs to be paid eventually.
However, it's NOT like mortgage deferral when it comes to interest. With mortgage deferral, interest carries on accruing during the deferral period. VAT deferral is 0% interest. According to the HMRC website, companies can join the schemes which allow 0% payment plan.

If you are offered the opportunity to pay tax, interest free over several months then why wouldn't you?? Gain interest on the money in the bank whilst paying 0% on VAT payments.

That's basic understanding!

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/deferral-of-vat-payments-due-to-coronavirus-covid-19

Magnite. Exactly as expected. After Methbot in 2017, publishers/advertisers working with fewer DSPs/SSPs. Industry Challenges.

"We’re in the midst of supply path optimization, and that’s just a fancy word for consolidation. Marketers and publishers want to work with fewer, more trusted folks."
https://www.adexchanger.com/ad-exchange-news/why-spotx-magnite-ceo-michael-barrett-on-its-billion-dollar-acquisition/

Telaria demerged from Trmr because of perceived conflict of interest and then merged with Rubicon because of they advocated transparency - to form Magnite.

Is it a coincidence that Magnite are buying SPOTX because they have a high Pixalate ranking, given Magnite have advocated transparency within Ad Tech eco system?

Pixalate rankings. Seller Trust rankings.
Rthm(trmr) no longer no1.

For CTV, on Roku/Samsung, Magnite(Telaria) have a higher trust ranking than rthm(Trmr).
Telaria demerged from Trmr(when it was TAP). Now part of Magnite.

Q1 - 2020 - CTV
ROKU
Telaria (ex TremorDSP, now merged Magnite) 1st/10
SPOTX 5th/10th
RhythmOne 9th/10, down 4.

SAMSUNG
SPOTX 2nd/10
Rhythmone 10th/10

https://www.pixalate.com/sellertrustindex/video/#!Samsung